Victiv Picks Week 17
December 27, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Hope all had Happy Holidays, we have a nice gift of matchups here as the 2014 NFL regular season comes to an end. We have three “Winner Take All” games this coming Sunday, crowning the division champs of the NFC North, NFC South and AFC North. Let’s find the big fantasy winners in the games this week at Victiv and try to fade teams that don’t have anything to play for *cough*Patriots*cough*.
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Drew Brees ($11,600)
Welp, here we are. Week 17 and I can’t figure out if I’m upset or relieved that this is the last time I can be burned by Drew Brees. This matchup against a terrible Tampa Bay pass defense will once again make it difficult to fade a QB who is on track to get very close to 5,000 yards for what would be his fifth season in his career. He’ll need 329 yards which he eclipsed against this very same defense in Week 5 when he went for 371 and 2 TDs.
Budweiser – Matt Ryan ($9,200)
Matty Ice has really had a much better season than he is getting credit for, as reflected by his price that has been consistently $2-3,000 cheaper then the top tier of QBs. Ryan has developed a floor to keep your 50/50 lineups in check while leaving you a little extra salary to spend on skill positions. Carolina has a mediocre defense and is ranked 26th place in DVOA against the opponent’s #1 WR. That should help Julio Jones who is obviously back to being Matt’s favorite target now that he is healthy. In a must-win game – like so many of these Week 17 matchups are – Ryan will take it upon himself to get the ball down the field and into the end zone.
Natural Light – Philip Rivers ($8,300)
Philip doesn’t have the greatest matchup this week against a Chiefs pass defense that has yet allow a 300-yard QB performance through the first 16 weeks. If you need to save a few thousand dollars out of your $50k cap this is a guy you shouldn’t mind betting on. Kansas City is one of only four teams that have allowed a passing touchdown in each game this year which at least establishes a floor for the Chargers quarterback. For what it’s worth he has a career record of 31-8 in the month of December and he’s a cheaper choice than 19 other QBs this week.
Arrogant Bastard – Le’Veon Bell ($9,000)
We’ve got possibly the best athlete coming out of the backfield in the sport facing off against a Bengals defense that hasn’t done much to stop opposing running backs all year, including a 20-47-2//5-72-0 Week 14 performance to Bell himself. Le’Veon had managed only 3 scores through the first ten weeks but has racked up 8 in the last five. Running backs against Cincy are averaging 122 yds/gm and only three other defenses have allowed more rushing TDs. Le’Veon’s rushing yards have been sloping down which lowers his floor but his ceiling is still high enough to give your team a huge boost.
Budweiser – Matt Asiata ($5,300)
Asiata is getting the ball, whether it looks pretty afterwards or not (he’s averaging 3.3 YPC). He is definitely Minnesota’s goal line back, as he now has 9 TDs on the year, 3 of which have come in the last two weeks. Matt and Minnesota will get a great matchup this week against Chicago who are the 28th ranked scoring defense in the past five weeks. Over the last four games running backs have scored 7 touchdowns against this Bears team.
Natural Light – Dan Herron ($4,400)
It seemed like the Colts offense had a pretty good matchup last week in what looked like a setup for a shootout. Instead The Cowboys put the boot on the neck and didn’t let up until it was 42-0. Oh boy. Herron had only 7 rushing attempts and 3 catches but we can ignore those stats as Indianapolis had only 10 rushing attempts as a team. Game flow won’t continue as such this week as Tennessee has allowed the 2nd most rushing yards this season. Chuck Pagano has already came out this week and vowed to get the run game going. Colts will want to keep their QB upright in a game that won’t affect their playoff seeding.
Arrogant Bastard – Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,500)
I am paying up for ODB again this week, at least in my 50/50 lineups. Just don’t want to have to fade him, to be honest. He gets a Philadelphia pass defense that has allowed the 2nd most 20+ yard receptions and the 2nd most 20+yard TDs. The rapid game speed that Philly will want to instill bodes well for Odell, who is already averaging nearly 12 targets/gm since the Giants’ bye week 8 weeks ago. High floor, huge ceiling, and with the Giants out of the playoff race this will be the last time you get to see this stellar rookie until next year. Enjoy.
Budweiser – Mohamed Sanu ($4,500)
After starting the year on a tear, the return of AJ Green has impacted Sanu’s numbers quite a bit; scoring double digit fantasy points in 7 of the first 8 weeks, Mohamed has scored more then 10 only once in the following 7 weeks. These are the type of numbers you’ll want to stay away from unless you’re looking for a risky GPP play. Pittsburgh is ranked as the 30th passing defense in the last five weeks, including a 224 yard performance by the aforementioned AJ Green just a few weeks ago. The Steelers have allowed 300+ yards in 3 straight weeks now, if AJ does not end up playing in Week 17 (or if he’s only used as a decoy) Sanu can deliver a surprising line for you.
Natural Light – Nick Toon ($2,000)
Nick Toon would be a very interesting guy to pair with Drew Brees this week as he is basement priced against the TB secondary. He’s only got 1 TD on the year but he has also only been active for the last five weeks. Nick is an incredibly cheap boom-or-bust and his name reminds me of watching Blue’s Clues, so why the hell not?
Arrogant Bastard – Antonio Gates ($4,800)
Remember when Ladarius Green was going to be a thing? I do. Antonio Gates apparently doesn’t. Antonio has reeled in 12 TDs now to go along with his 65 receptions and 754 yards. The only fantasy qualms you may have with the old guy is the fact that so much of his production comes all at once, leaving you with weeks of 1-8-0 and 2-14-0 along the way. Down the final stretch of this season Philip Rivers has been leaning on him heavily, getting him 7 or more targets each of the last four games, including 3 TDs in the last two. With Keenan Allen looking to possibly miss more time and this being a must win game for the Chargers, Rivers will be eyeing his reliable tight end all day Sunday.
Budweiser – Greg Olsen ($4,600)
This is a very similar situation to that of Antonio’s; his QB is playing for his playoff life and he is the most reliable target on this team. Ignore his ugly output last week and instead turn your head toward a sunnier outlook, an Atlanta team allowing the most passing yards per game. The Panthers running game has taken a huge step in the right direction which should open up the field for Greg Olsen against the DVOA 32nd ranked team defense.
Natural Light – Charles Clay ($3,500)
Not many tight ends priced outside of the Top-10 have the sort of upside to go for 5 catches or over 50 yards in a given game yet that’s what Clay has done in six of the last eight games. He has established himself a nice floor for quite cheap and need I mention he just caught 6 passes for 114 yards against a Vikings team that had been pretty good against the TE slot. The Jets have been giving up scores through the air all season and there’s no saying that Clay won’t end his year on a high note.
Arrogant Bastard – Seahawks ($7,800)
Seattle has really turned it on the last half of the year, especially at home. They’ll get a St Louis offense that likely won’t get anything going unless they somehow do it on the ground. If they take to the air they will be facing a defense that has at least 3 sacks in each of the last five weeks. A couple of turnovers will assuredly raise the Seahawks’ floor quite a bit but it will be tough to afford the top tier of defenses this week.
Budweiser – 49ers ($6,100)
This Cardinals quarter back situation is in all sorts of shambles. After Bruce Arians named Logan Thomas starter on Tuesday he quickly changed his mind back to Ryan Lindley after only a single practice. Gotta be pretty awful to get sent back to the bench after only one practice. So, they’ll send out a guy who now has 225 career passing attempts without a single touchdown. In 5 career starts he has accumulated 169 yds/gm and 8 INTs. San Francisco has quite a narrative here; possibly playing for Harbaugh’s final game, Frank Gore’s final game, and trying to salvage a .500 record from a disappointing season. You hate to see a team limp into the playoffs but after this game the former 9-1 Arizona team might literally be limping into the playoffs.
Natural Light – Vikings ($4,200)
Boy, defenses are much more expensive this week then in weeks past. Minnesota is the 6th cheapest but still $4k+. It looks like the Vikings have the best shot at getting us some points out of these cheap options as they’re facing an offense lead by Jay Cutler who is leading the league in turnovers despite missing last week. Jay probably isn’t feeling all too motivated after being benched in favor of Jimmy f’ing Clausen. Look for lots of errant throws and sacks.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning Victiv 9-pack:
QB Philip Rivers
RB Matt Asiata
RB Daniel Herron
WR Odell Beckham Jr
WR Mohamed Sanu
TE Charles Clay
FLEX Jordan Matthews
FLEX DeSean Jackson
I filled my FLEX spots this time around with a couple of guys who can get behind the defenses in the two games with the highest Vegas lines. Not too shabby. If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”