Victiv Picks Week 15
December 12, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Victiv, a sleek new site to use as our dfs outlet will be my focal point this week. Our salary will be $50k and this is a more traditional ONE-QB league, and a .5 PPR so we’ll be looking for a lot of value in our skill players. Let’s start things off!
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Drew Brees ($10,800)
I seriously feel bad for all of you that used a New Orleans’ passing offense stack last week. I had Stills, Colston or Graham in every lineup and I was definitely hanging my head after that game with the Panthers. Don’t be worried this week though, the Bears have been hemorrhaging fantasy points to most every quarterback not named Teddy Bridgewater for quite a while now. Drew hasn’t gone back to back games without multiple TDs this year and Chicago has allowed more than 4 TDs on three separate occasions.
Budweiser – Eli Manning ($8,800)
Eli hasn’t exactly set the record book on a fire this season, he’s actually played somewhat close to a replacement level quarterback. Not the type of play we’ve seen from him in past years. This week he gets a bit of a break as he faces off against the worst pass defense in the league in both Football Outsider’s DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and Numberfire’s NEP (Net Expected Points) metrics. Washington has allowed a passing TD in every week so far this season, including 10 TDs through the air in their last four games. September 25th was the last time these two teams faced off and it culminated with Manning having the best game of his year, going for 300 yards, 4 TDs through the air and even a rare rushing TD. I think the odds of him going 300 yards/2 TDs would be very good.
Natural Light – Derek Anderson ($4,800)
We can’t go without mentioning the value of the week in Derek Anderson. Due to a car accident Cam Newton was in earlier this week (he has since been discharged from the hospital, could apparently be back into football as soon as Week 16) Derek will be back under center for his second start of the season. The Week 1 opener against this same Tampa Bay team featured Anderson as a starter and he had no problems picking apart this defense, completing 70% of his passes for 230 yards and 2 TDs.
Arrogant Bastard – Le’Veon Bell ($10,200)
Sheesh, this guy is incredible. He is in elite company with Walter Payton after his ridiculous outburst last week; he now has three straight games with 200 all-purpose yards. I actually don’t expect that streak to continue necessarily but I do see him getting into the end zone a couple more times. Atlanta hasn’t been able to stop anybody and Pittsburgh hasn’t been a whole lot better, most of this back and forth will be going on through the air. Bell is leading all running backs in receptions this year and the Falcons are allowing the most rushing touchdowns in the league. Another 100 yard game on the ground with 5 catches and 50 yards will be fine but he’ll be in the end zone as well. He’s costing us QB salary but he’s also producing QB-level numbers.
Budweiser – Justin Forsett ($6,500)
One of the most consistent fantasy football contributors throughout the entire year gets himself a very nice game script this Sunday against Jacksonville. Vegas has this game at a middling O/U at 45 but the eye-popping number is 13, which they have Baltimore winning by. If they’re even close to that number that will mean the Ravens won’t have to air the ball out and will be keeping the ball on the ground. Jaguars allow 20 FP/gm to opposing RBs and Justin scores 18+ FP/gm, this is a wonderful 50/50 play.
Natural Light – Chris Johnson ($4,000)
If ever a “revenge” game was a thing I would bank on CJ.5K to be the guy who would go off in one. This would be a perfect opportunity to jump all over his former team. Titans are now allowing a whopping 141 YDS/gm on the ground so even if the Jets use a complete 50-50 split with Johnson and Chris Ivory there will still be plenty to go around for each of them. The Titans should be able to fight back enough to keep this game close and give us a favorable game script.
Arrogant Bastard – Odell Beckham Jr. ($7,600)
Washington secondary not good. Odell good. Start him.
What? That’s not good enough? Alright, well, Washington’s secondary has allowed the third most receiving TDs this year and they’ve had most of that damage done to them by wide receivers. Football Outsider’s DVOA has Washington’s D ranked 30th in the league against opposing teams’ #1 WR. On the flip side OBJ has had at least 90 yards and 6 catches in six straight weeks. High floor high ceiling play, I’ll have him in most lineups this week.
Budweiser – Roddy White ($6,000)
Julio Jones is still questionable for the game this weekend which could bode well for Roddy. Even if Jones does play I wouldn’t necessarily back off of White given his recent production with his running buddy in the lineup. The weeks that he can’t find the end zone he gets lots of volume, the weeks he doesn’t get volume he finds pay dirt. Pittsburgh’s secondary is nothing to shy away from inside the Georgia Dome.
Natural Light – Martavis Bryant ($3,100)
This is an incredible price to play him in some GPP plays. Martavis has played in 7 games so far this season and has scored in 5 of them. Sadly the other two games his statlines looked like this: 2-11-0 and 1-4-0. He is the personification of a tournament play and this week he’s going up against one of the softest secondaries in the league. So, plug him in and enjoy your .65 points or your 18.65 points!
Arrogant Bastard – Greg Olsen ($5,000)
Greg has had a consistent last four weeks, keeping his target floor at 7 and finding the end zone last week for the first time since Week 6. Granted, these numbers are with Cam Newton behind center but it might actually be good news for Olsen that Cam will have to take a week off; Derek Anderson’s start in Week 1 ended with 11 targets, 8 catches, 83 yards and a score for the tight end.
Budweiser – Antonio Gates ($4,100)
The old guy still has it more often than not. There’s no guarantee he’s going to go off in any week but they might need him this week against a team that allows quite a bit to opposing tight ends. Denver is allowing the 8th most points to the position, including 8+ targets a week to TEs. When these two teams played in Week 8 Antonio received just that many targets (8) and turned them into 5 catches for 52 yards and two scores. Philip Rivers will turn to his Mr. Reliable throughout the game with a passing attack that will need to be on point to keep up with the Broncos.
Natural Light – Scott Chandler ($2,900)
The tight end position has become sort of a punt position as of late. If you don’t want to pay up for big names, come down to the $3k or under group and look for a guy with the highest ceiling you can. Chandler received more than 8 targets for the first time since Week 6, gathering in 8 passes for 81 yards in Week 14. Expect more of the same this week against the Packers. They will have to score quite a bit to keep up and that means Kyle Orton will have to put it in the air.
Arrogant Bastard – Seahawks ($5,800)
Poor, poor 49ers. The final nail in the coffin of their season will more than likely happen in the home stadium of their rivals this Sunday. The San Francisco offense has turned into mush while Seattle’s defense has returned to the dominance we all expected it to exemplify from the beginning of the season. Kaepernick will take his awful play and erratic throws into a matchup against a team that has allowed a TOTAL of 20 points in the last three weeks, the most total yards of any of those games were 204. Philadelphia, one of the most potent offenses in the NFL this year racked up 139 yards last week against the Seahawks. I’m staying very far away from this Niners offense.
Budweiser – Ravens ($3,900)
We’re pretty much at the point that we just plug in whoever is playing the Jaguars. The fact that you can save yourself a couple thousand dollars by plugging in Baltimore instead of one of the top-priced defenses is just a bigger plus. Jacksonville is getting sacked and giving up turnovers at a terrible rate at home but they’re even worse on the road, sacrificing over 15 FP/gm to the other team’s D/ST.
Natural Light – Lions ($3,500)
Minnesota last played the Lions in week 6, managing just one field goal with 9 minutes remaining in the game after turning the ball over three times in the first three quarters. I don’t see Teddy and the Vikings having a much better go at it this weekend as they travel to Detroit without much hope of getting a run game started. The Lions have allowed 225 rushing yards since the five games after their bye week. That’s 45 yards on the ground a week. That’s going to put a lot of pressure on Bridgewater to get the ball into the air and that’s when things could get ugly.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 9-pack:
QB Derek Anderson
RB Justin Forsett
RB Chris Johnson
WR Odell Becakham Jr
WR Roddy White
TE Antonio Gates
FLEX Fred Jackson
FLEX Dez Bryant
Filled my flex spots up with a couple of guys that I think will get a large portion of their teams targets in games they might be playing from behind in. If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Make sure you check out the refer-a-friend freerolls and don’t forget to get an entry into the Victiv Bowl. It’s a $100 buy-in where the grand prize is a trip to the SUPER BOWL not to mention $50,000.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”