Victiv Picks: Week 14
December 6, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Victiv, a sleek new site to use as our #dfs outlet, will be my focal point this week. Our salary is $50k, and this is a more traditional ONE-QB league with a .5 PPR, so we’ll be looking for a lot of value in our skill players. Let’s start things off!
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Aaron Rodgers ($12,600)
The stack with the best matchup this weekend is a stack that’s been lucrative for a lot of the season: Rodgers/Nelson. The only problem with using this stack is the price. It’s going to cost you $20k, or 40% of your salary. If you feel like you can afford that, you’ll be rewarded with an Atlanta defense that has just as many > 300 yard performances against them as they have < 300 yard performances. Vegas is figuring on a shootout as the O/U is set at 56 for the Monday night contest. And hey, who doesn’t love a nice MNF sweat to finish the week?
Budweiser – Russell Wilson ($10,900)
Seattle will travel to Philadelphia to face the worst team in the NFL in relation to PYA, which sits at 289 YDS/gm. I’m not sure if I see Russell getting quite that many yards with his arm, but this matchup bodes VERY well for his running ability. This could turn into a showcase game for Wilson, gaining 200 through the air, 100 with his feet, and 2 scores. High floor, high ceiling play.
Natural Light – Andy Dalton ($7,000)
I think ol’ Peachbrows is a great tournament play at this incredibly discounted price. He is priced as the 32nd QB. I know he’s had some flat out stinkers, but he doesn’t deserve to be priced below about 14 of these guys. His last home game was that hideous performance against the Browns when he threw the football like a 5-year-old without fingers. Look for him to rectify that on Sunday by giving us a 200-2-1 statline that will surpass what we need for this price.
Arrogant Bastard – LeVeon Bell ($8,900)
With the big running back slugfest that went down on TNF between DeMarco and Forte, we have an easier decision to spend big money on this position for our Sunday games. The numbers will tell you that the Bengals allow only 96 YDS/gm on the ground (5th best in league), but if you dig deeper you’ll see that they are giving up 50+ yards/game to opposing RBs through the air — one of only five teams doing so. Le’Veon has had only two games this season where he received less than 5 targets, and those two games he rushed for 147 and 204 yards. I don’t expect him to be rushing for nearly those yards this week, and the Steelers will exploit Cincy’s injured linebackers with throws out of the backfield.
Budweiser – Lamar Miller ($4,500)
With the news that Haloti Ngata (the giant stop gap for the Ravens defense) will be suspended for the next few Sundays, Lamar becomes a pretty nice play this week. The only times he hasn’t put up decent numbers have been against the great Lions and Bills rush defenses. We’ll see him do more of the usual this week: 60 yards, a couple catches, and I can see him sneaking into the end zone. Definite 50/50 play.
Natural Light – Carlos Hyde ($2,900)
If you’re looking to save mucho monies in your RB slot for a GPP play, Carlos will be the way to go. This game could get out of hand, as Oakland just lost an absolute laugher 52-0 last week. If anything close to that happens this week, the 49ers will start lining up Hyde in the backfield to save Gore’s legs for this last stretch to the playoffs. The Raiders have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this year, meaning 10-12 touches against them can end up giving you a lot of points.
Arrogant Bastard – Jordy Nelson ($7,400)
We get a juicy matchup here with Jordy facing off against a terrible Falcons secondary. Atlanta has kept an opposing WR out of the end zone in only three games this year, but that is hardly good news. Those three games have amounted to 761 yards of offense for those same wide receiver corps. Nelson is the 7th most expensive guy this week, priced an entire $1,500 – $1,600 cheaper than Megatron and Josh Gordon. I’ll go with the guy who has the best QB here.
Budweiser – Kelvin Benjamin ($6,500)
The league’s 10th most targeted wide out will continue to be looked at just as much as ever when Carolina goes into New Orleans in a high-scoring affair. If the Saints jump out to an early lead and hold it, Cam Newton will have no choice but to air the ball out for much of the game. The Saints have been eaten up by opposing WRs lately, allowing a low of 26 points in the last four contests and a high of 39 points scored by WR groups.
Natural Light – Charles Johnson ($3,100)
Another good, cheap GPP play is Teddy’s new favorite target: Charles Johnson, who has racked up 22 targets over the past three weeks. It would seem as if Chuck took over for Cordarrelle Patterson, who was targeted all of one time last week and 6 times over the past three contests. The Jets are still standing tall on top of the league, having been scored on through the air more than any other team. Relatively low floor, but a wonderful ceiling for this price.
Arrogant Bastard – Jimmy Graham ($5,600)
Last week was a terrible mess. Children were crying. Grown men and women lost pivotal Week 13 games to keep them out of the playoffs because Jimmy was held without a single catch even though he was completely healthy. It was a sad day indeed. Hey wait, we’re playing daily leagues, who cares about those poor bastards playing redraft leagues that just watched their hopes collapse. We get a new team every week! And this week is assuredly not last week. I have plenty of confidence that Brees and co. will make sure that Graham gets the ball early and often against a weak Carolina secondary. The Panthers haven’t kept the monstrous tight end out of the end zone in 6 consecutive games, that streak won’t end in this one.
Budweiser – Jordan Reed ($3,700)
It would seem as if Colt McCoy enjoys targeting his big guys as Reed came out of the game last week with 11 targets, turning that into 9 catches and 123 yards. He is now averaging 7 REC/gm with Colt under center. Washington might be without deep ball threat DeSean Jackson, so keep your eye on the injury report. If DJax is out, those targets are going to have to go somewhere.
Natural Light – Kyle Rudolph ($3,100)
The big guy is probably not going to give you a large return on your money, but luckily he doesn’t cost you much. The Jets are a pretty simple team to move down the field on if you’re doing it through the air. If/when Minnesota gets into the red zone, Rudolph will be on the short list of players they will be throwing it to and that’s where his value will come from. Whatever you do, don’t start Rudolph and Charles Johnson; the odds of them both having a good day are slim to none.
Arrogant Bastard – Rams ($4,500)
St Louis’ D/ST has scored 72 FP/gm over the past month (exaggeration) while developing a nice floor, accumulating sacks, picks, fumbles and touchdowns. Through the first five weeks of the season the Rams had ONE sack. One. Over the next seven contests they had 27. They have four straight games with interceptions and two straight with a defensive TD and a fumble recovery. This defense is absolutely on fire, and they might have an easy cupcake matchup against a struggling Washington team.
Budweiser – Texans ($3,300)
I’ve been following around the Jaguars offense featuring Blake Bortles all season long, as I’m sure you have too. Don’t back off now as Jacksonville hosts the 5th highest scoring D/ST in fantasy football land. On only three occasions have defenses scored less than double digit FPs and the absolute lowest total has been 7.
Natural Light – Vikings ($3,200)
Minnesota’s D has run into a rough batch of games the last few weeks, having trouble getting pressure on some of the league’s best quarterbacks. They are a favored team playing at home in the lowest O/U of the week against Geno Smith. This is a perfect pick for 50/50 and H2H games.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 9-pack:
QB Russell Wilson
RB Lamar Miller
RB Daniel Herron
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Charles Johnson
TE Jordan Reed
FLEX Jimmy Graham
FLEX Eddie Lacy
Couldn’t fit all the boys I like in here, but that just means I’ll have to make some more lineups and see what I like the best with Victiv’s pricing! If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Once Sunday comes around, go pop up the dashboard on the site. Seriously. I got to sweat some NBA contests this week and the setup is AWESOME! 100% deposit bonus up to $1,000, and as soon as you sign up you can take on their VICTRON computer for free. You beat the computer and you get a free $5 ticket to play in a H2H contest. I played the computer in an NBA contest, won, got the ticket. That simple.
They’ve also got a $100 buy-in set up for December 21st called the “Victiv Bowl,” with 1st place getting $50,000 and a freaking trip to the Super Bowl. Impressive.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”