Top 10 Dynasty Rookies
May 22, 2012 | Chet
G’day Fake Footballers! It’s good to see you, or at least sense your presence. Hey! I sensed that! Ok, well here is my first installment of Dynasty Rookie Rankings. For the most part I lean toward players that have both the opportunity and the skill and try to balance those two things out about 50/50. Of course there is no mathmagical code to do that perfectly so there’s plenty of room for argument here. But I do hate to draft guys early that look like they are going to have a long road full of detours and gridlock getting to playing time even if they have ability. It’s a tough nut to balance, or some saying that makes sense, but I’ll give it the old college try.
1. Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS: The top three all have a right to this #1 spot in their own way. I went with RGIII for his tremendous upside and long-term prospects, but you can read more about that here if you so choose.
2. Andrew Luck, QB, IND: Like Griffin I am taking Luck over Richardson based on longevity of quarterbacks. I think both are similar in value at their position but in dynasty leagues I feel that you will get more for your buck out of the two top QBs. The Colts are building around Luck and he has a shot at putting up decent numbers while playing from behind all season.
3. Trent Richardson, RB, CLE: If you are doing well at QB already there’s no reason not to grab T-Rich first overall. In redraft leagues I much rather go for running backs so this quarterback love only goes so far. I wrote a wee bit about Richardson around yonder and I’m a fan.
4. Doug Martin, RB, TB: This pick could be somewhat shortsighted, but I’m going to make it anyway. Martin is not an overly special player, but he is good and in a very good situation and those two things together make for fake football goodness. The Buccaneers should be a much improved offense with a nice core of young players including Martin who will have every chance to be the every down back.
5. David Wilson, RB, NYG: There are plenty of reasons to like Wilson that have nothing to do with Ahmad Bradshaw’s feet, but those funky feet are what should get Wilson in your lineups earlier than other running backs. The Giants are a great team with staying power and their offense should score more than their fair share for a while to come. If Wilson can grab hold of the bulk of the work he’ll be a safe play for years to come.
6. Isaiah Pead, RB, STL: I like Pead’s speed, punny name and situation. Steven Jackson only has a year or two left as the starter and that’s if all goes well. I’m starting to worry a little about Bradford but still believe he can get his game back on track enough to turn the Rams offense around for the forseeable future. Pead has a ton of upside and even though I really like the WR’s that come next I’m going running back here.
7. Michael Floyd, WR, ARI: Floyd isn’t in the Julio Jones and AJ Green instant impact realm but he is a good football player that will become even better with Larry Fitzgerald as his tutor. I try not to buy too much into what veterans might be helping a young player along and how that will impact that player’s career but when it comes to Fitz I completely buy it. He is an incredibly hard-working and talented receiver that isn’t selfish. He even runs his own training camp in the off-season. Floyd will get that knowledge and that cushion of the defenses best cornerback and safety help not on him.
8. Justin Blackmon, WR, JAX: Many have Blackmon ahead of Floyd but his situation in Jacksonville knocks him down a bit. It almost knocked him down even further in my mind but we have to remember this is dynasty fake football and Blackmon has long-term skills. A lot of the receivers behind him may have ended up in better situations but they will need to take some big steps forward to be on his skill level.
9. Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN: Hillman jumps into the top 10 here based on landing in Denver. Running backs have short lifespans and waiting around for a few years to get a chance can suck pretty bad. Denver has Old Man McGhee and No Bueno Moreno as their main guys right now and Hillman could easily pass them by as early as this season. Manning will bring his game with him and the starting RB job will go to the best player.
10. Coby Fleener, TE, IND: This 10th spot had a lot of suitors. There are a whole slew of wide receivers and that Miami QB I liked around here, but I had to lean Fleener. Fleener isn’t the second coming of Gronk-o-Graham, but he’s got by far the best opportunity out of any rookie tight end and really, most tight ends in the league. The obvious fact that he’s played with Luck and been successful in doing so is well, obvious, but also very beneficial. Both are rookies on a rebuilding team. They know each other well and will rely on each other. I don’t expect Fleener to take the NFL by storm year one but that offense with Andrew Luck will only get better and better and so will Fleener.