The Fake Football Matchup Machine August 23, 2013  |  Chet


Good day The Fake Footballers! We once again are on the precipice of the NFL season and soon we will be diving into weekly matchups and that is where our Matchup Machine comes in. I thought I would take you through the nuts and bolts of my “methodology.”

I certainly am no statistician. I like stats, but my brain only can go so deep into those roundy-pointy numbers. So I take a fairly straight forward look at the numbers. On the surface I take the fantasy points, yards, touchdowns, etc . . . that each team allows to each position from the last 8 games of the 2012 season and ranked them, as you can see below. I also added in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings against the rush, pass and tight ends. I then take those rankings and average them out for an overall ranking. Then I take that overall ranking, enter it into the fancy excel file and it spits out the matchups for each player.

As the season goes along these numbers will become more update

The higher the number, the worse the defense fared in that category.

 

Here is the matchup machine for week 1. I have it sorted so the easiest matchups are at the top.

 

 

2 Responses

  1. Jermichael says:

    12 Team PPR: Do you think it’s worth it to pick up Moreno off of waivers? Here are my rbs: Spiller, Reggie Bush, Dwyer, Helu, Pierce & Ingram. If so, who would you drop, I’m thinking Ingram.
    Thanks!

    • Chet says:

      Sorry I missed this. It looks like Redman is still the front runner in Pittsburgh. I could see dropping Dwyer for him.

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Statistical Strategery: Weekly Matchups

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