The Fake Football Matchup Machine August 23, 2013  |  Chet

Good day The Fake Footballers! We once again are on the precipice of the NFL season and soon we will be diving into weekly matchups and that is where our Matchup Machine comes in. I thought I would take you through the nuts and bolts of my “methodology.”

I certainly am no statistician. I like stats, but my brain only can go so deep into those roundy-pointy numbers. So I take a fairly straight forward look at the numbers. On the surface I take the fantasy points, yards, touchdowns, etc . . . that each team allows to each position from the last 8 games of the 2012 season and ranked them, as you can see below. I also added in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings against the rush, pass and tight ends. I then take those rankings and average them out for an overall ranking. Then I take that overall ranking, enter it into the fancy excel file and it spits out the matchups for each player.

As the season goes along these numbers will become more update

The higher the number, the worse the defense fared in that category.


Here is the matchup machine for week 1. I have it sorted so the easiest matchups are at the top.



2 Responses

  1. Jermichael says:

    12 Team PPR: Do you think it’s worth it to pick up Moreno off of waivers? Here are my rbs: Spiller, Reggie Bush, Dwyer, Helu, Pierce & Ingram. If so, who would you drop, I’m thinking Ingram.

    • Chet says:

      Sorry I missed this. It looks like Redman is still the front runner in Pittsburgh. I could see dropping Dwyer for him.

Leave a Reply

Statistical Strategery: Weekly Matchups

Week 15 Starts and Sits

  Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!   It’s semifinals week in fantasy football, but unfortunately, there will be no video for the Week 15 starts and sits.  I’ve chosen to be present when the force wakes up on Thursday night.  Like a squadron of rebel pilots with names less cool than “Skywalker,” ...


Week 14 Starts and Sits

Jim Mora doubted in could be done, but we’ve done it.  We’ve arrived at the fake football playoffs.  With a full slate of games each week and a handful of potentially inactive leaguemates outside our playoff brackets, the available range of fantasy options will likely expand in the final weeks.  Thus, we ...


Week 13 Starts and Sits

The Week 13 Starts and Sits video below kicks off with a review of last week’s picks.  It’s not particularly pretty.  Matthew Stafford and Sammy Watkins as sits, for example, were colossal misses.  If you benched either player on my recommendation, I apologize, but bad calls are an inherent part ...