Reflecting on May MFL10 ADP
June 4, 2016 | Justin Edwards
As we look forward into June to continue (or begin) dabbling in the great off-season activity of Draft Only Best Ball leagues it’s important to look back and see what mistakes we or our fellow drafters might be making. Below are some ADPs that caught my eye in this past month for the right or wrong reasons.
*All ADPs are based on drafts from May 1st – June 1st
Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons RB, Overall Pick 15.59 (RB6) Overvalued
-Offseason Notes: Atlanta signed Mohamed Sanu to a 5 yr/$32,500,000 contract to help soak up targets across from Julio Jones.
-Competition: A healthy Tevin Coleman
-2015 RB1 in total Fantasy Points, RB1 in FP/Gm. 1,639 total yards, 14 TDs
-’14 RB49/RB74 with 65 carries and 38 targets
-Weekly Upside: 75-90 yards rushing + 8 catches, 50 yards and a score
After an outstanding stretch of games from Week 3 – Week 7 in which he totalled 825 yards, 27 receptions and 10 touchdowns Devonta hit a bit of a sophomore wall. In the following 8 games he averaged only 88 total yards and found the end zone only 3 more times. He never left the passing game, being targeted 6.6 times/game over that same second half stretch. The biggest bother of the second half disappointment is Tevin Coleman’s 4.55 YPC over the same stretch whilst Devonta could only muster a lowly 3.25 YPC. As a matter of fact, even with that huge Week 3-7 explosion Freeman is still the owner of a 3.95 career YPC behind the same line that Tevin Coleman owns a 4.51 YPC. A 250-touch ceiling is one that can produce a top-6 fantasy back but he would need to approach those 14 scores again and I don’t see that happening. A commodity that I would love to have on my team, only I need him to fall an entire round around RB10 range before I can do that.
Jeremy Maclin – Kansas City Chiefs WR, Overall Pick 39.48 (WR22) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: Tweaked ankle at practice last week. Precautionary removal.
-Competition: A slew of no. 3 receivers and TE Travis Kelce
-2015 WR15 in total fantasy points, WR19 in FP/Gm. 87-1,088-8
-’14 WR9/WR11 86-1,329-10 ’13 DNP
-Weekly Upside: A good bet to sniff double-digit TDs again on a team with a lack of RZ targets, a couple multi-TD weeks are a very real possibility.
A year after Alex Smith threw exactly zero TDs to a wide receiver Kansas City went out and got Jeremy Maclin. While catching 8 of them himself, he also set a personal career-high with 87 receptions and took a few carries for the first time in three seasons. Just coming out of his peak age years in his second season with this offense and Alex Smith, he’s got one of the safest floors in the game. A great addition to teams looking to lower the risk associated with grabbing up too many ‘boom-or-bust’ pass catchers.
Eric Decker – New York Jets WR, Overall Pick 54.09 (WR29) Undervalued
-Competition: Brandon Marshall is another mouth to feed but both managed to finish in the top-13 in 2015. The other WRs should be a non-issue with Kenbrell Thompkins, Quincy Enuwa, Devin Smith and 7th round pick Charone Peake on the roster behind them.
-2015 WR13 in total FP, WR14 in FP/Gm 12 TDs 132 targets
-’14 WR26/WR28 5 TDs 114 targets ’13 WR9/WR12 11 TDs 136 targets
-Weekly Upside: Consistent play, 80 yards or a TD (often both) in 15/15 games last season
While the 29th wide receiver off the board is a perfectly reasonable price to pay for a guy who only broke 100 yards once (barely; 101 in Week 12) last season, the sort of consistency you can receive from Decker is well worth a pick before the 55th overall player. Bucking the trend of the typical Best Ball mindset of grabbing for guys with 200-yard upside in a given week, let’s look at E.D.’s Fantasy points/Game finishes over the last three seasons; #14, #28 and #12. That 11 TD year in ’13 was with Peyton Manning at the helm, throwing 55 freaking scores but don’t discredit it too much, he had to fight Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker for end zone dances. Eric’s down year (WR28) had him running routes with Geno Smith and Michael Vick chucking him the ball. At his current ADP we’re all assuming that Geno Smith will be under center. If (when) the Jets understand the mistake they’re making by not re-signing Fitzmagic, Decker’s ADP should climb accordingly. That means we need to strike now while his value is at it’s lowest.
Ameer Abdullah – Detroit Lions RB, Overall Pick 78.76 (RB31) Undervalued
-Competition: Theo Riddick for catches and a hodge podge of Zach Zenner, George Winn, Stevan Ridley and seventh round pick Dwayne Washington for carries.
-2015 RB44 in total fantasy points, RB66 in FP/Gm. 143-598-2 on the ground, 25-183-1 through the air
– ’14 N/A
-Weekly Upside: 130 total yards
Though the shoulder surgery could keep Abdullah out of precious practice reps over the spring and early Summer, there’s not much doubt that he should be the no. 1 RB in this backfield by the time the season starts. Detroit put a lot of stock in him with a 2nd round pick last season and Joique Bell is officially out of the way. As long as he keeps the ball off the ground he will be on the field for most of the Lions’ snaps, a team that targeted their running backs a whopping 167 times. Riddick of course accounted for 99 of them and converted them to a ridiculous 80 catches. If Ameer can stay on the field more often his 38 targets can obviously blossom right next to his rush total. Megatron is sadly off of this team and out of the NFL and he’s taking his 149 targets with him so Detroit can no longer run through one of the best receivers we’ve ever had the pleasure of watching. Marvin Jones and Golden Tate will do their best to gobble up as much of that action as they can but that will not negate the trickle-down effect of the rest of the team receiving hand-offs or passes from Matthew Stafford. If the sophomore merely inherited Bell’s running game usage (90 attempts) OR Bell’s passing game usage (27 targets) it would push him into RB2 conversations. He would have ranked 9th among all running backs in both categories if we were to incorporate that usage. That’s a whole lot of added volume and it looks even better when you consider he averaged 0.7 more YPC than Joique and 1.1 more YPC above Riddick behind the same offensive line. I see 2016 Abdullah as a consistent producer who should be valued closer to an RB2 than an RB3.
Torrey Smith – San Francisco 49ers WR, Overall Pick 108.42 (WR49) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: He got some offensive minded coach named Chip Kelly?
-Competition: Sophomore DeAndre Smelter (he of zero rookie snaps due to injury), Eric Rogers who is also vying for the no. 2 spot, Quinton Patton (another ditto) and Bruce Ellington who will look to get action out of the slot.
-2015 WR54 in total fantasy points, WR73 in FP/Gm. 33-663-4
-’14 WR29/WR32 49-767-11 ’13 WR23/WR29 65-1,128-4
-Weekly Upside: 6-120-1
Whether the football Gods like it or not fantasy teams and San Francisco alike have a playmaker on their hands with Torrey. Luckily for our Best Ball teams we don’t really care when those big plays happen, just as long as they actually happen every once in a while. Last year was a rough one in which the former Baltimore vet and Super Bowl winner was on the receiving end of only 62 targets (lowest of career), 33 receptions, (also lowest), 663 yards (you guessed it) and 4 touchdowns (t-career low). The silver lining here is that his catch rate of 53% was actually right in line with his career catch rate (49%) and his 20.1 yards per catch and 10.7 yards per target in 2015 were both quite a bit higher than his previous career totals of 16.9 and 8.3 yards, respectively. What we are missing here is volume. Well, we’re missing a lot from this 49’ers offense but specifically for Smith we just need a good bit more volume to get him relevant for more weeks. Anquan Boldin alleviating 111 targets should be a big help but keep in mind that he was being used as much more of a possession receiver than Torrey has ever been used in his career. That being said I think we could modestly give Smith 25-30 extra targets and not feel like we’re being ridiculous. That could amount to something like a 46-828-5 statline that would have equated to the WR41 last season, meaning that Torrey is being selected 23.72 draft spots too late, or, practically 2 full rounds.
Jared Goff – St Louis Rams QB, Overall Pick 208.50 (QB31) Undervalued
-Competition: The aforementioned Nick Foles and Case Keenum
– 2015 numbers: 4,719-43-13 (CAL)
-Weekly Upside: 250 yards, 2 scores
Even though the no. 1 overall pick from this Spring’s draft is almost assuredly guaranteed the starting QB spot for the freshly moved-in Los Angeles Rams, Jared Goff is currently being drafted after the likes of fellow rookies Christian Hackenberg (QB30), Carson Wentz (QB28) and Paxton Lynch (QB25). None of which are certain to be taking snaps all season long. I won’t argue that all of those situations will end up being much better in the long run, but I’d rather have the guy taking snaps from Week 1 – Week 16, especially if I’m in a spot where I’m having to take a third QB to bolster a weak squad. In 2015 Nick Foles and Case Keenum combined to become the QB27, tossing a modest 2,880 yards, 11 TDs and 11 INTs. Making that the floor for the rookie would be setting about as low of a floor as you can think of from someone the odds on favorite to playing an entire season. According to Pro Football Focus, Nick Foles had the least amount of fantasy points per drop back in 2015 so Goff should be nothing if not an improvement. The rookie will be playing behind the best pass protecting O-Line in the league according to Football Outsiders which should give him solid feet to stand on. While floor is not exactly what we’re looking for in Best Ball leagues I have no problem with it when the other (or two others) player at the position is extremely volatile.