Reflecting on June MFL10 ADP
July 6, 2016 | Justin Edwards
As we look forward into July to continue (or begin) dabbling in the great off-season activity of Draft-Only Best Ball leagues it’s important to look back and see what mistakes we or our fellow drafters might be making. Below are some ADPs that caught my eye in this past month for the right or wrong reasons.
*All ADPs are based on drafts from June 1st – July 1st
Sammy Watkins – Buffalo Bills WR, Overall Pick 29.18 (WR17) Overvalued
-Offseason Notes: Watkins is still not sure if he’ll see any training camp snaps. “You never know.”
-Competition: A bunch of garbage and 500+ team rushing attempts
-2015 WR20 in total points, WR10 in FP/Gm. 60-1,047-9 in 12 games
-’14 WR27/WR34 65-982-6
-Weekly Upside: 7-130-1
Sammy Watkins is a good football player. There’s no denying that. Sammy Watkins has not been a terribly healthy football player, either. After having a screw inserted into his foot back in April, he has added on to his previously injured calf and hip. Initially after the surgery he was supposed to have 6-8 weeks of recovery time, which would have put him at 100% near the end of June. If he’s not going to be ready by the end of July or even through August, this is a pretty huge red flag for the beginning of the season. I’m not trying to be incredibly pessimistic here but I’m gonna keep him slid down the wide receiver pecking order until we hear any sort of positive news. The front end of the 3rd round is just too expensive for me.
Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints WR, Overall Pick 87.61 (WR43) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: Red Zone targets were both lost (Marques Colston and Ben Watson) and replaced (Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener)
-Competition: The 11 other wide receivers in New Orleans.
-2015 WR31 in total points, WR36 in FP/Gm. 70-990-3
-Weekly Upside: 7-100-1
Despite finding the end zone only 3 times through 100+ targets and a 14.2 average per catch, Willie offered up some solid games in his first season; he scored 14+ fantasy points in 7 of them. Per Matt Harmon; “Another undrafted utility-man, Lance Moore finished with at least eight touchdowns or 1,000 yards in four of the five seasons in New Orleans from 2008 to 2012”. This sort of usage should bode well for Snead shares, especially that snippet about touchdowns, a number which should regress to the mean in a positive manner for 2016. He’s being drafted with no respect for his ceiling right now and with another year getting to know and earn the trust of Drew Brees, the sky is the limit in this pass heavy offense.
Rishard Matthews – Tennessee Titans WR, Overall Pick 156.32 (WR61) Overvalued
-Offseason Notes: Kendall Wright has been manning the slot with Rishard, DGB and rookie Tajae Sharpe manning the outside.
-Competition: Delanie Walker’s 125+ targets and DGB’s raising involvement.
-2015 WR51 In total points, WR41 In FP/Gm. 43-662-4
-’14 WR114/WR130 12-135-2 on 22 targets (10 games), WR74/WR80 41-448-2 on 67 targets (13 games)
-Weekly Upside: 5-50-1
How many usable wide receivers can a team that averaged 34.4 passes/gm (25th in the league) provide? What if that same team added a former NFL rushing leader and a Heisman trophy winner who just set the SEC record for single-season rushing yards and touchdowns? It will definitely be tough sledding for wide receivers in Tennessee but Rishard Matthews should offer something we’re looking for in Best Ball leagues: a guy with a career 13.05 yards/reception and a 15.4 Y/R last season (T-19th in the NFL with John Brown). Whether because of injuries or a lack of trust through four years of different coaching staffs in Miami, Rishard has not been able to log enough playing time to make any sort of fantasy impact. Through 49 games he has logged three 100+ yard games and 34 times has not eclipsed 30 yards receiving. Hardly a stocked receiving core, Matthews will probably still only be Marcus Mariota’s fourth target behind Kendall Wright, Dorial Green-Beckham and Delanie Walker. If Mariota comes close to matching his 31 attempts a game again, that’s not a whole lot of action for the new addition.
Brandon LaFell – Cincinnati Bengals WR, Overall Pick 195.90 (WR73) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: LaFell took more targets from QBs than anyone not named AJ Green throughout spring.
-Competition: Rookie Tyler Boyd, who looks to be taking his snaps almost exclusively from the slot.
-2015 WR80 In total points, WR74 In FP/Gm. 37-515-0
-’14 WR22/WR20 74-953-7 on 119 targets, ’13 WR50/WR62 49-627-5 on 85 targets
-Weekly Upside: 5-100-1
How can a receiver who couldn’t succeed with Tom Brady possibly succeed with Andy Dalton, you might ask? Well, simply put, because Andy Dalton doesn’t have any option but to throw the ball at Brandon LaFell, regardless of past (and present) drop problems. To give Brandon a bit of a break, he was coming back from a broken foot and that may have snuck into his head and had some negative effects on his production. Tyler Boyd, who figures to be the biggest threat to take away from LaFell’s target share, will likely be taking a role in the offense similar to that of Mohamed Sanu. If we simply supplant Tyler Boyd as Sanu and Brandon LaFell as Marvin Jones, we’ll have a difference of 49 targets-to-103 targets. If we build in the possibility that Tyler Eifert could miss up to the first four weeks of the season, it’s not outlandish to put a ceiling on LaFell of 110-120 targets. With that sort of usage he would be a guaranteed top-40 receiver. Even if things don’t break perfectly he still looks to be a no. 2 WR playing on the opposite side of the field from AJ Green. The opportunities will be there.
Martellus Bennett – New England Patriots TE, Overall Pick 122.91 (TE15) Undervalued
-Competition: Just some guy named Gronkowski.
-2015 TE22 In total points, TE14 in FP/Gm. 53-439-3 on 80 targets through 11 games
-’14 TE5/TE6 90-916-6 128 targets ’13 TE10/TE16 65-759-5 94 targets
-Weekly Upside: 8-80-1
I have to mention for the few of you who may not remember but this Patriots offense once hosted two of the top 3 fantasy tight ends in the same season. Sure, it was all the way back in 2011 but they had a pretty relatable wide receiving crew; a 30 year old Wes Welker, Julian Edelman (9 targets on the year), a 32 year old Deion Branch and a 33 year old Chad Johnson. What did they do with such a lack of talent on the outside? Tom Brady threw to his tight ends 237 times for 2,237 yards and TWENTY FOUR TOUCHDOWNS. Now, that’s the tippy-top best possible scenario but it’s not completely out of the question.
Since 2012 Martellus Bennett has caught more passes than every other tight end in the league not named Witten, Graham or Olsen. The only reason that Gronkowski is not on this list is because he has missed 16 games over the last four seasons. Not that he is “injury prone” but in the non-zero possibility that Gronk misses some more games this season Martellus will be the TE no. 1 in an offense that loves themselves some tight ends. Scott freaking Chandler had an 11 target game last year. Even without any injuries to shake up the usage New England could very well run a majority of their offense through a two tight end set (they did so 74% of the time in ’11). Martellus’ run blocking efficiency will give his team even more reason to keep him on the field as much as possible.
With Dion Lewis still mending and not 100% to be starting in Week 1 there may be some open targets in the short game but nonetheless Bennett probably won’t figure to be a target hog in any sense. The reason he’s such a great pick for MFL10s is because of the odd weeks of great production which are sure to come. He could honestly flirt with double-digit touchdowns but it would be anybody’s guess when they come. It’s not a far stretch that he ends the season in the top-7 tight ends yet he’s going as the 15th.