Reflecting on August MFL10 ADP
August 17, 2016 | Justin Edwards
As we round the final stretch of MFL10’s for the 2016 season (Final day to join a league is August 25th!!) I wanted to take one final look at recent ADPs that I may not agree with for one reason or another. While in my previous iterations of this article I looked at an entire month’s worth of ADPs, I have settled for just a two week sample size for this slightly shortened version. All ADPs are based on drafts that took place from August 1st – August 15th which amounts to nearly 900 drafts. I feel that is plenty large enough of a sample size to reflect on.
Agree? Disagree? Don’t know what an MFL10 is? Feel free to comment down below or give me a holler on the Tweet Machine.
Jordan Reed – Washington Redskins TE, Overall Pick 37.30 (TE2) Overvalued
-Offseason Notes: Has been eyeing Gronk and Jimmy Graham’s game to attempt to implement their strengths.
-Competition: Team vets Logan Paulsen + Niles Paul, veteran Vernon Davis, and a stacked wide receiver corp.
-2015 TE2 in total points, TE1 in FP/Gm. 87-952-11 on 114 targets
-’14 TE21/TE18 50-465-0 (11 games), ’13 TE22/TE9 45-499-3 (9 games)
-Weekly Upside: 9-125-2
With an upside like those numbers above out of a tight end position, how could I possibly be down on Jordan Reed? The fact is, I want someone who is as much of a guarantee to play 16 games as I can possibly have at the 4.01, and in the first few rounds in general. Granted I contradict myself with a guy like Jamaal Charles who I very much like, but hey, the overall RB1 outscores the overall TE1 by a wide margin, year-in and year-out so the payout from an ‘injury prone’ RB is way higher. I love watching Jordan Reed play and he is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, but he’s a guy that I’ll be using in DFS leagues, not a Best Ball league where I’m going to have to dump a lot of equity into him. Though he is fantastic when he’s on the field, he has played in 34 games over the last three seasons, losing all the rest of his time due to injury, some of which have been quite serious. With five concussions since his college years, he is not the best bet to finish a full season anytime soon. I’m looking for less ceiling and more consistency out of my TE position, even just one round (Greg Olsen – 51.22 overall) or two rounds (Kelce – 65.49, Fleener – 68.91) later.
Kevin White – Washington Redskins TE, Overall Pick 37.30 (TE2) Overvalued
-Offseason Notes: WR coach Curtis Johnson says Kevin is a “work-in-progress”.
-Competition: Alshon’s incredible target total, but not much else.
-2015 Rookie season lost to injury
-Weekly Upside: Who tf knows?
This is a classic case of picking the Mystery Box. You could have the boat (Proven guys sitting right around his ADP; Emmanuel Sanders, Allen Hurns, DeSean Jackson) or you could take the Mystery Box. Hell, maybe the Mystery Box is a boat?! Or maybe the Mystery Box is really just two tickets to a crappy comedy club. Not only have the wide receivers directly surrounding his ADP produced at the NFL level, they’ve actually taken a snap at the NFL level. You’re basically using an early 6th round pick to draft a rookie wide receiver playing across from arguably the best WR in the league (I said arguably) on a team that threw the 8th-fewest passes in the league last season. For reference to how silly this seems; Laquon Treadwell is going a full three rounds later and he did not lose the entirety of last year with an injury, Tyler Boyd is in a pretty similar situation behind AJ Green but is going more than five rounds later. Kevin White could be awesome down the line, I’m not going to argue with you there, but MFL10s are not Dynasty Leagues.
Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers RB, Overall Pick 77.19 (RB28) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: Stewart is back to 100% healthy, working minimally throughout Camp to reduce the odds of injury
-Competition: Mike Tolbert (the bowling ball played all 16 games last season and ended it with 62 carries), Fozzy Whitaker (25 carries in 13 games in ’15) and Cameron Artis-Payne (a total of 3 rushing attempts through Carolina’s playoff run last year).
-2015 RB23 in total points, RB20 in FP/Gm. 242-989-6
-’14 RB24/RB25 176-812-3, ’13 RB93/RB82 48-180-0 (6 games)
-Weekly Upside: 25-100-1
Injury scare? Check.
Red zone usage scare? Check.
Lack of passing game targets? Check.
Approaching the dreaded RB age of 30? Check.
I’ve got my eye on an aging running back who hasn’t played a full 16 game season in the last five years as an undervalued commodity. I’m with you, it sounds ridiculous. But as opposed to guys being drafted with my ever-so-value 1st-to-5th round picks, I’m fine with chasing a solid floor with a guy going at 6.05. The “Daily Show” is a perfect target for me after starting drafts going heavy on WRs. Insofar that I’m actually aiming to take him as my RB1, as long as I’m aiming for high upside weekly guys in the next few rounds; the Riddick, Woodhead, Bilal Powells of the world. If you’re going RB heavy in the early rounds you can even take him as your fourth running back, even though he has a very likely upside of finishing inside the top-15 of his position. Remember that much of his time missed at the end of 2015’s regular season was precautionary due to the fact that his team didn’t have any “must-win” games on the slate. His year-end totals could have been much higher.
Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens QB, Overall Pick 168.26 (QB23) Undervalued
-Offseason Notes: Flacco not back to normal but “feels great”
-Competition: Ryan Mallett, his own knee.
-2015 QB25 in total points, QB19 in FP/Gm. 2,791-14-12 (10 games)
-’14 QB14/QB19 3,986-27-12, ’13 QB18/QB24 3,912-19-22
-Weekly Upside: 350-2-1
This Sooper ‘Leet quarterback entering his 9th season has some sneaky potential to be a high upside week-to-week play. Although the first year in the Marc Trestman pass friendly offense was marred by too many interceptions and, ultimately, a season ending injury, Flacco still managed to throw for 299+ yards in six of the ten games he played in last year. Though it is unknown whether or not Breshad Perriman will be able to contribute much this year, the Ravens still went out of their way to add more weapons for him to play with, including Ben Watson (74-825-6 as a Saint last year) and Mike Wallace (he of 49 career touchdowns). Last season he was on pace for 4,465 yards, 22 touchdowns and 19 interceptions before going down with his injury, that yardage would have placed him 6th in the league. Unless Baltimore’s defense vastly improves, expect that yardage total to stay high, as their Pass D DVOA ranked them 25th in the league, meaning opposing teams should be able to rack up some points pretty easily. Those games when the Ravens are playing catch-up they’ll be doing so on the arm of their quarterback. Grabbing Joe in the 14th or 15th round as your QB2 is quite the value to be had.