Post Draft MFL10 Notes and Overreactions
May 5, 2016 | Justin Edwards
Now that the dust has settled from the NFL Draft I thought I would take a look at how some teams’ players may or may not be affected now that we know which city all of the kids have graduated into. This is all based on Best Ball, or specifically MFL10 leagues, so we’re often not even looking for year-long production, but what guys can make a large contribution in a few to several weeks to help our teams.
All of the ADPs are up-to-date based on MFL’s ADP page as of the time of writing.
The five rookie WRs (one of which is pegged as a TE) has severly lowered Gary Barnidge(TE8)’s upside
-I’m just not a believer in a repeat performance in the first place, Gary is never getting a 79-1043-9 receiving line again.
-Corey Coleman(WR51) will be a bonafide no. 1 for Cleveland, regardless of whether or not Josh Gordon(WR26) plays this season (he won’t). While there will certainly be growing pains, as Coleman’s high college drop rate can attest, the Browns are in no spot to be pulling him off the field as they continue their franchise re-boot. Travis Benjamin(WR46)’s breakout 2015 notched him a 68-966-5 statline in a similar offense. Set those receptions as the low mark, those yards as the high mark, and you have Corey Coleman’s rookie season.
Laquon Treadwell(WR43) will catch 40% of Teddy Bridgewater(QB26)’s touchdowns.
-So, you know, 5. Treadwell’s upside doesn’t seem high enough to use in a Best Ball league as long as the Vikings are throwing under 200 yards/game. The totality of WR stats behind Stefon Diggs(WR40) last season adds up to 84-1,052-2. That’s every other WR combined.
Jared Goff(QB31) is your QB3.
-He’s been handed the reigns and there’s no turning back. Barring an injury, he’ll be on the field for 16 games, which means he’s a safe bet to produce at least a couple times this season. If you’re drafting a third QB, there’s no reason to avoid Goff.
Mike Thomas(WR90) will be the be the featured receiver by year’s end.
-With Tavon Austin(WR45) and Pharoh Cooper(WR96) gimmicking around the field all willy-nilly, Goff will be happy to have a guy who runs routes. Kenny Britt has never topped 48 receptions in his 7-year career and Brian Quick has 64 receptions altogether in his 51 career games. Of the two rookies, Thomas lined up all over the field in college where Pharoh Cooper hardly left the slot. Referencing Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Pharoh lined up in the slot a whopping 84.3% of the time of the 363 snaps that were charted.
Damn. Should have been chasing Ezekiel Elliot(RB11) all along.
-Darren McFadden(RB42) and Alf Morris(RB46) are dead
-Zeke will be a three down back behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Should catch some passes.
-The 2015 season had Dallas ranked 5th in YPC at 4.63 while sporting mediocre running backs and a passing attack that mustered 217 yards/game (27th).
Josh Doctson(WR49) just dumped on D-Jax(WR39) and Pierre Garcon(WR59)
-Could steal targets from Jordan Reed(TE2), especially Red Zone targets; at 6’2″, tallest WR on the depth chart
-Kirk Cousins(QB16) gets a weapon that isn’t all-or-nothing Desean Jackson or aging Pierre Garcon
-Incredible body control, downfield catches make for a large catch radius for Cousins
-It’s likely either Jackson or Garcon will be out of Washington by the time the season starts to chop off some cap space
Paxton Lynch(QBn/a) will be a high upside QB play.
-If he doesn’t win the starting job in the pre-season, Mark Sanchez(QBn/a) will have the toughest schedule in the NFL in weeks 1-3 which could open the door for the rookie.
-He had a 51.8% completion rating on passes that traveled 20 yards in the air, fifth in the nation.
-Will offer the same ceiling to Demaryius Thomas(WR14) and Emmanuel Sanders(WR31) as the QBs he’s replacing
Derrick Henry(RB28) will assure that DeMarco Murray(RB17)’s ’16 won’t be any better than ’15
-David Cobb(RB52) planning on losing weight for the 2016 apparently wasn’t the direction Tennessee was looking to go in. Cobb can safely be looked over unless he finds a new team.
-Henry forced the most missed tackles in the nation last season and should be a good fit for the smashmouth direction Tennessee is looking to go in. I would prefer to stay off of DeMarco and Derrick if I can help it but the price point on Henry is much more palatable.
Michael Thomas(WR73) makes the Saints’ WR corp difficult to comb through
-Willie Snead(WR42)’s 102 targets are likely to take a hit or at the least stay put as New Orleans took Thomas as the 47th overall pick. Drew Brees(QB7) threw 600+ passes yet again in ’15 and will share the wealth as he’s done for years now but it will be difficult knowing where they all will go. If you would have said this time last year that Ben Watson(TE28) would have been the target of 109 of those passes you would have been called insane. As a Red Zone threat Michael Thomas could definitely put a damper on his 6’6″ teammate Brandon Coleman(WR66)’s TD upside.
Jay Ajayi(RB31) avoids a first round nemesis and gets the best OT in the class
-Kenyon Drake(RB73) is a receiving threat that lines up outside from time to time and won’t be taking too much of the load from Ajayi
Leonte Carroo(WR81)/DeVante Parker(WR24)/Jarvis Landry(WR17) gives Ryan Tannehill(QB21) a great young receiving crew
-The only downside to this would be Landry’s targets coming back to earth a little bit from the 167 he received last year.
Tyler Boyd(WR75) can fill Marvin Jones(WR41)’ departure and more
-He’s 1″ and 1 pound less than Marvin Jones, so Andy Dalton(QB15) will have a very similar frame to look for on the field. As a possession receiver, Boyd is not going to have the sort of 10-td season as Jones’ 2013 but a median between that 51-712 year and the 65-816-4 2015 isn’t impossible.
-Will cause just as much of a distraction from AJ Green(WR7) as Mohamed Sanu(WR61) or Jones ever did.
Tyler Ervin(RBn/a) takes away some of Lamar Miller(RB7)’s three-down back upside
-46 receptions were fifth-most among running backs in 2015
Will Fuller(WR76) will do nothing but help DeAndre Hopkins(WR4)’ target total
-116th and 113th in drop rates last two seasons, Will will be used to stretch the field
-Braxton Miller(WR89) will likely be returning kicks until he aquates himself with the wide receiver position.
Buck Allen(RB36)’s pass-catching prowess just went out the window with the addition of Kenneth Dixon(RB47)
-Dixon was PFF’s highest-graded RB as a receiver.
-Behind only Zeke on many pundits’ draft boards
-Justin Forsett(RB40) is a bad receiver
-Kenneth will be able to juke NFL defenders out of their cleats, but won’t get a ton of hand offs with Forsett back to health. All three running backs should see the field, putting a damper on all three’s production.
Paul Perkins(RB64) is the best running back wearing New York Blue.
-Per @Pat-Thorman, Paul Perkins ranked first out of 51 RBs in PFF’s Elusive Rating last year while Andre Williams(RBn/a) ranked 50th/52.
-Still though, he’s a 5th round pick that doesn’t run routes that won’t end up being dump-offs. This RBBC just got even more RBBC’ier. With Shane Vereen(RB48) catching balls out of the backfield (59 catches in ’15) and Perkins’ size (5’10”, 208lbs) limiting his red zone usage behind 6’1″, 231 pound Rashad Jennings(RB49) it’s unlikely Paulie P has the upside we need.
Sterling Shepard(WR71) will make ODB(WR2) even better
-OK, maybe not better but it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a bonafide possession slot receiver to steal away a little bit of the attention from opposing defenses. It won’t help Odell Beckham’s skyhigh value get any higher but it assures that it shouldn’t drop either.
Jordan Howard(RB67) has capped Jeremy Langford(RB18)’s upside
-A 230 pound power back that seeks and bulldozes his way through contact should usurp Langford of goalline rushes as the season progresses.
DeAndre Washington(RBn/a) will take Latavius Murray(RB21) off the field on 3rd downs
-DeAndre caught 124 balls at Texas Tech. With a hodgepodge of Taiwan Jones, Roy Helu and Marcel Reece behind Latavius, don’t expect it to be too difficult for the rookie to leapfrog them onto the field.
Thomas Rawls(RB10) won’t be affected by the two Seattle rookies.
-Alex Collins(RB55) can fill the hole of a straight-ahead runner if Rawls gets gassed but shouldn’t siphon many touches, even in the red zone.
-CJ Prosise(RB57) is a former receiver who can take over catching-down services. A knock against him would be his hand size (the 4th percentile according to MockDraftable.com), agility (8th percentile according to PlayerProfiler.com) and his bench press (5th percintile). These all could point to a running back who will be nothing but a role player in his first season. He can accellerate through a hole but can’t do much with the ball when the hole is clogged, so I see no TD upside here.
Hunter Henry(TE34) will be useless for fantasy but will prompt Antonio Gates(TE16)’ long postponed downslide
-Hunter had the top receiving grade from PFF, didn’t drop a pass in 2015