NFL Plays: Vegas Odds (Week 6) October 14, 2016  |  Justin Bales


Games to Attack

 

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints 

The Saints make their way onto the list once again this week. They will be playing in New Orleans, where they are a significantly better offense. This can be seen in the Vegas total, as this game is set at 53.5 points and the Panthers are only 2.5 point favorites. This game should be a shootout from the first quarter on with both teams scoring at will. Cam Newton and Drew Brees are the elite options, and there are plenty of wide receivers and tight ends to pair them with in this game. Mark Ingram has been playing well recently, but Jonathan Stewart is the interesting option. The Saints have had the worst run defense in the NFL, and Stewart is expected to return this week. He’ll make a good tournament option, but the Saints and Panthers pass offenses are where the money is this week.

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

This has more to do with the Steelers than the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is a 7 point favorite, but the game is set at 48.5 points, which means there should be plenty of scoring to go around. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are the obvious stack, but Sammie Coates and Jesse James also make good tournament options. The best player on the Steelers offense, though, is Le’Veon Bell. He is playing a ton of wide receiver, which only adds to his value as a running back. The Steelers should also be winning and looking to run the clock out in the second half. The Dolphins running game is in shambles, but their passing game could have some potential. They have limited the amount Ryan Tannehill has been able to throw recently, but the Dolphins will likely be losing early on, which means their hand may be forced. Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker both come with elite upside, but they are tournament-only options as they come with a ton of risk as well.

 

Kansas City Chiefs vs Oakland Raiders 

This is an interesting game. The Raiders opened as 2 point favorites in a game set at 48.5 points, but the Chiefs are now slight favorites, and the point total has decreased. I tend to look mostly at the opening line, which makes this one of the best games to attack this week. Both defenses have struggled this season in both the pass and run games. The Chiefs said they will be taking the training wheels off of Jamal Charles this week, but I’d rather see him produce before taking a shot on him. The Raiders running backs are completely splitting carries, which hurts the value of them all, but Jalen Richard is my favorite for his price this week. The passing game is the best to attack as both Derek Carr and Alex Smith can be used, along with their top receiving options.

 

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Games to Avoid

 

Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions

It’s surprising to see the Lions as favorites in what is projected to be a defensive struggle. Detroit is a 3 point favorite in a game set at 43.5 points, which is the lowest point total of the slate. The Rams offense has a couple players, such as Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin, that possess great upside, but they come with too much risk to use in a game with this low of a total. The Lions running backs are dealing with a plethora of injuries, and their rushing attack is best left untouched this week. The Rams have struggled to defend the pass, though, and Matthew Stafford has been on fire. He’s a great tournament option to stack with Marvin Jones, who will likely see a ton of targets this week. Aside from them, the Lions offense isn’t very appealing.

 

 

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Giants 

This game has a few players that can be used, but the Vegas line suggests that it should not be stacked. The Giants are 3 point favorites in a game set at only 44.5 points. Both defenses have shut down quarterbacks this season, and the two in this game should be avoided. Bobby Rainey possesses decent value for his low price tag, but his snaps are far from guaranteed. Odell Beckham Jr. is the player to use from the Giants; he has struggled this season, but the team has recently stated that they will be working to get him involved more in the offense. Sterling Shepard also comes with good upside. Mike Wallace is the best option for the Ravens, as the Giants have struggled against wide receivers this season, and Wallace will be heavily targeted with Steve Smith doubtful. Terrance West also carries value, but he isn’t more than a tournament option until the Ravens show that they are going to give him consistent carries.

 

Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans

The Titans are a team that prides itself on controlling the ball and playing solid defense throughout the game. That doesn’t bode well for the Browns, who are also dealing with injuries at quarterback. The only player that should be used from Cleveland is Terrelle Pryor, who could potentially play quarterback this week if Cody Kessler gets hurt again. If not, he will still be the top targeted wide receiver for Cleveland. Tennessee is a different story, as they are 7 point favorites, even though the game is set at only 43.5 points. It isn’t a terrible idea to stack Marcus Mariota with Delanie Walker, as the Browns have been one of the worst teams in the NFL against the tight end this season. DeMarco Murray is the player that should get most of the attention, though. He has dominated this season, and the Browns have struggled to stop the run. He can also be used in a stack with Mariota and Walker, as Murray has caught at least five passes in all but one game this season.

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