NFL Plays: Vegas Odds (Week 12)
November 25, 2016 | Justin Bales
Games to Attack
Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons
This is an interesting matchup. The Falcons have an elite offense, while the Cardinals have struggled a bit. In turn, the Cardinals have played well on defense, and the Falcons have struggled. The takeaway in this game is that the Falcons’ offense is good enough to score against anyone, while their defense will allow anyone to score against them. Tevin Coleman is set to return this week, which muddies up the Falcons’ backfield, but Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will make an elite stack this week. Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper can also be used in tournaments. David Johnson is far and away the best option for the Cardinals, while Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are a high upside tournament stack this week.
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Carolina Panthers vs Oakland Raiders
The Panthers and Raiders have both struggled on defense this season, but they have both found success on offense. The Raiders are 3 point favorites, but the game is set at 49.5 points, which means both teams should have more than enough opportunities to score. Cam Newton is the best option for Carolina, and it would be best to stack him with either Greg Olsen or Kelvin Benjamin. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper is the obvious stack for the Raiders, but Latavius Murray and Michael Crabtree are two other high upside options this week.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
This game opened at 48 total points, which was one of the highest of the week. However, the line has since dropped to 45.5 and the Patriots are 7.5 point favorites. New England should do plenty of scoring (26.5 implied total), as they do every week, and they have multiple good tournament options. Tom Brady is obviously the main player, while James White, Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski (if he plays) all make good tournament options. LeGarrette Blount can also be used in all leagues, as he should be the main running back in the second half. The Jets aren’t a great team to attack given the line, but Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall come with enough upside to be considered in tournaments.
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Games to Avoid
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
The Chiefs and Broncos both rank in the top-10 in points allowed this season. It’s no surprise that this game is set at only 39.5 points. The Chiefs are small favorites, but this total is low enough to completely avoid this game besides defenses. Spencer Ware, Devontae Booker, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Travis Kelce all hold value, but there are better options, even in tournaments, on this slate.
New York Giants vs Cleveland Browns
The Giants’ defense has been playing much better recently, and they get a great matchup against the Browns, who have struggled offensively this season. New York is a 7 point favorite in a game set at only 44 points. Rashad Jennings is coming off a great game and can be used in all leagues this week. Eli Manning, Odell Beckham, and Sterling Shepard can also be used this week, but they are best suited for tournaments because of the blowout factor. Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman both come with good upside, but Gary Barnidge is the best option for the Browns this week. He has a higher floor with Josh McCown at quarterback and can be used in all leagues.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals and Ravens have both struggled on offense this season and have both played well defensively. A.J. Green and Gio Bernard are out for the Bengals, which means Jeremy Hill, Tyler Boyd, and Brandon LaFell can be used as salary relief options. Tyler Eifert can also be used in tournaments. Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, and Dennis Pitta all have enough upside to be used in tournaments, but this game is set at a low Vegas total for a reason (40.5), and it is best to avoid the more expensive options in this game this week.