NFL DFS Week 9: It’s a Trap!
October 31, 2014 | Renee Miller
Be sure to check out the Week 9 DFS CHEAT SHEET before locking in your lineups!
I’m finding Week 9 is so bad for building NFL lineups that I could argue the whole week is a trap. Prices are high, matchups are bad, weather is iffy, injuries coming and going… just go play more NBA DFS lol. I’ve actually already committed to pretty much just playing a bunch of different NFL lineups that I hate in a couple contests each rather than my usual approach which is to build one or two lineups that I love and play them across the board.
Assuming you’re not quitting, let’s look at some difficult decisions you’ll have to face this week.
QUARTERBACK: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are both playing peak football right now. This has been the defining, most epic matchup of my fantasy football life and I’m thrilled to get another (at least) one. That said, it’s not one I’m targeting in DFS. The o/u is nice, 54.5 as of Thursday, but the winds are predicted to be over 30 mph. @thefantasydouche, founder of rotoViz.com, posted a chart plotting the game score deviation from the Vegas line against sustained wind speed. Things are ok until about 25mph when the sharp drop off begins. Both are high priced on both sites and I don’t feel confident enough to build a cash game lineup around either one of these stud QBs. I’ll be content to watch this battle without a DFS stake and roster someone like Russell Wilson (shocker) or Colin Kaepernick.
RUNNING BACK: Marshawn Lynch and LeSean McCoy are priced at an unbelievably low point this week. I have to imagine their ownership soars at $6100 and $5200, respectively. However, despite my plan to have a lot of diverse lineups this week, I’m probably not as enthusiastic as most. McCoy has had two 20 fpt games this season. Not great, but decent. Unfortunately he was priced so high for those games that they only seem good in retrospect. Whether it’s him, the offensive line, the schedule, or the phase of the moon, McCoy is averaging just 12 fpts per game and is finally priced fairly. I think you’ll get what you pay for with him vs Houston, but I want more.
Lynch has been in the news with rumors that Seattle is fed up with him and won’t keep him next summer. Maybe they, like me, are fed up with his single digit fantasy points over the past three weeks? His receptions have really fallen off, though his carries have been just below his season average of 16 during those three weeks (10, 18, 14). Clearly there are personnel issues in Seattle, and those three games were vs good defenses. Winning cures a lot and I think Lynch has a great opportunity to bounce back at home vs Oakland in a game where Seattle is favored by more than the Raiders team total. That makes sense, yes, but I’m not confident in my ability to predict Lynch’s usage right now, so I will be limiting my personal DFS usage.
WIDE RECEIVER: The interesting trend in WR that I’m fading is the huge price jump class. Martavis Bryant (+$2500), whom I love and used in both Week 7 and 8, Donte Moncrief (+$2300), who will be a stud, Brandon LaFell (+$1200), coming off Brady’s huge day, Jeremy Maclin (+$2100), coming off his best game (ever?), and Larry Fitzgerald (+$1300), aka Michael Floyd‘s fantasy value killer in Week 8, all jumped up substantially for Week 9. It feels like chasing points to me, even though in general I like many of them as players. I think there are better plays with probable higher volume at lower price points. Examples of guys I’m using are Michael Crabtree ($4500), Doug Baldwin ($5100), and Andrew Hawkins ($4900). Pairing one or two of them with a stud like Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, or Antonio Brown should provide both high upside and a high floor.
DEFENSE: The last mistake you could make would be fading one of the top three defenses: Bengals, Chiefs, and at home, Seahawks. All have amazing opportunities to rack up points vs their hapless opponents. A lot of people got cute with the Jets defense last week. It’s just not worth it when a 19 pt vs 4 pt defense is often the difference between cashing and not.