NFL DFS Week 8: It’s a Trap!
October 23, 2014 | Renee Miller
Check out The Fake Football’s Week 8 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!
I’m not really feeling trapped this week. At least heading into Week 8, I feel like things are quite straightforward relative to weeks past. So I’ll just be writing this article on Monday after I fall into all the traps I failed to see today…see ya then!
Oh, ok, hindsight is nice but I’ll at least try to steer you away from a couple mistakes I can see happening.
1) Not playing Thursday night games. One of the highest o/u of the week, primetime, division rivalry, there are so many reasons to play players in the TNF game this week. Specifically, Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Branden Oliver. Someone or two from the SD passing game will probably also have a decent day, but I’m stacking on the Denver side of this one with the SD secondary weakened this week.
2) Using Bengals RB. This team is some kind of disaster right now without AJ Green. If he plays, I take it back, but right now neither Giovani Bernard nor Jeremy Hill are worth playing in cash games, or for me, any games. Baltimore is PFF’s #1 graded overall defense, and 4th best against the run. Using ESPN scoring, the Ravens allow the fewest points to opposing RB, less than 10 per game. With Dalton struggling as he has, I can’t justify it. I love them both, but not this week.
3) Avoiding the MIN-TB game due to low o/u and general terribleness of both teams. This is where I’m finding a lot of value this week. I love Mike Evans, Jerick McKinnon (along with everyone else), and am even ok taking a shot with Mike Glennon or Teddy Bridgewater at his rock bottom price. If you do, I think Jarius Wright will be his favorite target.
4) Either using or not using Jimmy Graham. I don’t know which, but there’s a wrong answer here. He’s still limited, going in to Sunday questionable, but everyone thinks he’ll play. He’s so good, they’re at home, in what is going to be a massive shootout type game (please please please), so if he’s active he’s hard to not have some exposure to. There are enough TE I like this week, however, that my personal exposure will be limited. Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, and Zach Ertz are where most of my lineups are headed, and I’ll have some Gronk on DK at $5900.
5) A lot of projection models and people with eyes like Jamaal Charles this weekend at home vs St Louis. The Rams have been sneaky good against the run, allowing only one rushing TD, and the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing RB. They’ve faced the good and the bad…Lynch, Murray, Gore, McCoy, and the MIN and TB combos in the first two weeks. The trend is that the Rams have been better at home, so in Arrowhead, this may not be a big concern, but I won’t be using as much JC as I would have before I saw these stats.