NFL DFS Week 7: It’s a Trap!
October 16, 2014 | Renee Miller
Check out The Fake Football Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheet!
Temptation is a funny thing. It’s so unique from person to person. Lobster or filet mignon? Chocolate lava cake or key lime pie? 18 holes of golf or a 90 minute massage? Beach or forest? Beer or wine?…we all give in to different pleasures. Fantasy football is no different. I love Jeremy Hill but can’t get excited about Bishop Sankey. Will go to the ends of the earth for Russell Wilson but would rather stab myself in the eye than roster Joe Flacco. Interesting Flacco story, after subbing him out of a Millionaire Maker Ravens stack lineup in Week 6 because I literally can’t stand owning him even for a few hours, I did stab myself in the eye. So, writing with one eye is a challenge, but that’s the great thing about DFS. It’s a clean slate for Week 7.
There are many DFS temptations this week. I guess the point of this article is to be the one that says, “No, with filet mignon and lobster on the menu, you CAN NOT order the chicken.” I don’t care if it’s cheaper, or less fattening or comes with a better side dish. You’ll regret it later when everyone else is gushing about the far more succulent choice they made. Now I don’t want to actually call any NFL players chicken, so let’s leave that metaphor behind and consider this sneaky trap play I think you should avoid this week.
Vikings Run Game. Matt Asiata will get more touches. More than the two he had vs Detroit last week? Not that encouraging. He’s averaging 37 yds/game, and since a solid game vs NE in Week 2, has seen his targets decline. Jerick McKinnon has been the better back the past three weeks, in part due to his increased role in the receiving game, such as it is. He’s averaging 3-4 receptions a game for 25-40 yards plus 3.5 ypc rushing. Neither of these guys has done a lot to get excited about. I’m not going to focus on the Atlanta game, because that’s just Atlanta. The 3 TDs from that game are really bolstering Asiata’s total on the season.
The Bills are basically the anti-ATL defense. They allow the fewest fantasy points to RB, and in fact only 405 rushing yards total all season. That’s the best mark of teams that have played six games, and third when you include teams that have already had their bye week. So 67.5 yards per game allowed by Buffalo vs RB that combine to average just 71 yards/game…no thanks. What about TDs? Good fantasy plays rely on scoring as much or more than yardage. Unfortunately, Buffalo has allowed exactly zero rushing or receiving TD to RB this year.
Why are we even talking about these guys? Well, the Vikings offense is sputtering on all cylinders (is that even a thing?), meaning the passing game has been, if possible, even less effective than the run game. So Asiata and McKinnon figure to be a big part of the game plan in Buffalo. More importantly for us is their salary. Asiata is only $4500 on DK while McKinnon is $4700. They are $6100 and $5900 on FanDuel, respectively, which is less of a value for sure. Part of the temptation is that a lot of people don’t buy the Bills defense. The Bills are bad and have been bad for a long time and those impressions die hard with us. Low salary, misconception about the Bills, and fond memories of an Atlanta game from Week 4 can make chicken look like lobster I guess.
The thing to do if you find yourself circling these Vikings guys is make room in your lineup for the $5300 Lamar Miller or Ben Tate. Use either Detroit back for even less. I’d rather see you use Eddie Lacy, Chris Ivory, or the aforementioned Jeremy Hill for the same or less money as either Viking.