NFL DFS Week 6: It’s A Trap!
October 9, 2014 | Renee Miller
Check out our Week 6 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!
Well, it’s Week 6 already folks, and I’m happy to report that unlike last week at this time, so far this week I’ve been living regret free. Had a great DFS NFL weekend, loved seeing my favorite player Russell Wilson tear up MNF, and NBA preseason DFS has been available since Tuesday night. The sun is shining, the birds are chirping, and we’ve got fresh Week 6 football starting tonight! What could possibly go wrong?
That’s what I’m here for, guys. There’s always something that can go wrong when building your NFL DFS lineups. I know what a lot of you are thinking this week. Good value plays seem few and far between this week, particularly at RB. I know the salaries of Shonn Greene and Bishop Sankey btw; I said good values. This means many will be tempted by the opportunities afforded us by Montee Ball’s groin injury. The good news is that Ball will not require surgery and estimates have him out just 2-3 weeks (vs these bad NYJ and SF matchups).
Which brings us to the trap play of the week: A three-headed monster of Denver RBs Ronnie Hillman, C.J. Anderson, and Juwan Thompson. As Peyton Manning himself was quoted as saying, “we’re going to need all three of them”. I could be quoted as saying, “you don’t need any of them in your DFS lineups”. You know, if you wanted to quote someone on that.
Let’s take them in turn. The best option is probably Ronnie Hillman. You may remember Ronnie Hillman from such 2.4 ypc games as Week 5 2013 (although he added 4/42 receiving in that one), Week 17’s 12/30 effort vs Oakland, or another 2013 gem in Week 4 vs Philadelphia: 11/36 on the ground and 2/21 receiving. No? Those not ringing any bells? You prefer to remember the Week 3 masterpiece vs Oakland in which he gained 66 yds on nine carries (7.33 ypc), scored 1TD (his only in the past 3 seasons), and caught one pass for 12 yds. That’s a 14.8 FPT game in full PPR scoring. Was that the infamous rock, paper, scissors TD? Does it matter? That’s not how I want to build a lineup. Hillman is a fine back up for Denver, and he will see probably 10-15 carries. Last week he gained 64 yds on 15 carries vs a good Arizona run D. His salary is just $3000 on DraftKings, where you can make a case that if he gets even 3 ypc, and catches 3 passes for 30 yards, he’s worth it. On FanDuel he’s $5900, and at 0.5 PPR, you rely slightly more on the ypc. His ceiling projection in full PPR using rotoViz’s GLSP (game level similarity projection) app is 11.7 FPTs.
Your next choice would be C.J. Anderson. Listed as the #2 on the Broncos depth chart, we didn’t see him in action last week. It’s been speculated that was due to needs on special teams which Anderson can’t fulfill. We will see him in Week 6, however. Anderson has been mixed in here and there to the tune of about 4-5 carries for 2-30 yards, a 5.5 ypc average on the 2014 season. Some have suggested he’ll get goal line work, but in this offense, Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Julius Thomas seem to have that perfectly well in hand. Anderson’s price is also $3000 at DK, $5200 at FD. This time, I can’t justify spending for Anderson on either site. (GLSP ceiling: 2.6 FPTs).
Lastly we have the relatively unknown Juwan Thompson. He helped out in last week’s effort with 3/15/1, scoring the lone rushing TD vs Arizona after Ball left the game. This was his first game action of the season. It’s worth noting that he missed practice Wednesday with a sore knee. It sounds like nothing serious, so he is likely to be in the mix on Sunday. For reasons I don’t understand, FD has priced Thompson $500 more than Anderson, at $5700 this week. Eight-yard TDs in blowouts must be some special kind of multiplier for the salary formula over there. He is again minimum price on DK. (GLSP ceiling (assuming full health): 8.1 FPTs).
To summarize, we have three unproven or proven mediocre runners competing for carries in the most efficient passing offense in the league. To ice this trap cake, Denver plays the New York Jets this weekend. The Jets are effective at stopping the run, allowing just 11.8 FPTs per game to RB (per ESPN Stats). That is the 6th best mark in the NFL. The Jets are also PFF’s #1 graded run defense in the league. You beat the Jets through the air. Denver will beat the Jets through the air. Using any of the RB in this game isn’t sneaky contrarian, it’s a decision with negative expected value, in my opinion.