NFL DFS Week 5: It’s A Trap!
October 3, 2014 | Renee Miller
Here is our Week 5 DFS Cheat Sheet with picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, DraftDay and Fantasy Elite
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This is shaping up to be one of those weeks that I wish I could (or did) write myself a To NOT Do list.
1. Do not imagine for one second that having another drink will make Tom Brady look better (on the field of course).
2. Do not leave your credit card at the bar and have to shamefully reclaim it Tuesday afternoon during daylight hours.
3. Do not lock Teddy Bridgewater into your Monday–Thursday lineup.
4. In fact, just Do not play the Monday–Thursday slate.
5. Do not put all your money in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker.
Well, it’s too late for most of those. The DK Milly is still one I could avoid. Maybe not alllll my money at least. The problem with that tournament is that to win you’re going to need to have rostered Bryce Brown vs the Lions, have Fred Jackson get a concussion, CJ Spiller sprain an ankle, and the Lions vaunted run defense fall apart. Or something along those lines. With 90K entries, the smart, logical plays are not going to win you a cent.
Not to brag, but I do all right at DFS because I strive to make smart, logical decisions with my lineups. When I write about strategy and teach DFS to newcomers, I advise you to be able to back up your decision to roster a player with multiple lines of evidence (three is my goal). It’s so engrained in me that I have a really hard time making GPP lineups. When I cash tournaments, it’s often with a really hot cash game lineup. Because to differentiate yourself in a very large field, you have to use plays that aren’t obvious. That forces you to create scenarios in which you imagine a player could overcome the clear odds against him and score a lot of fantasy points. Some guys are really good at this, and win big tournaments over and over. I readily acknowledge that I’m not.
Honestly, I’ll have a few, but I won’t go crazy with hundreds or even dozens of entries. You have to know your strengths to stay in the game. About 17% will cash if it fills, those are the odds I’m playing. So let’s get to a couple of trap plays that I think you should avoid in cash games. Feel free to use these with Bryce Brown in a DK Millionaire Maker lineup. I’ll probably have to now, for superstition’s sake.
My To NOT do list for you:
1. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense vs Jacksonville will be a popular play. Priced reasonably at $3500 on DK and not so reasonably at $5400 at FanDuel, the Steelers will be many players first stop shop for DST. I’m all in favor of playing defenses vs Jacksonville. I was a vocal advocate of the Chargers D last week and they did just fine. They’re a very strong, and (publicly) underrated unit. However, the Steelers D is bad. They’re ranked in the mid-bottom against the run and the pass, allowing 353 yards and 24 points per game (per ESPN Stats and Info). ProFootballFocus grades them negative on every aspect, earning an overall grade of -35.1 through the first four weeks. That’s good for 3rd worst. Jacksonville may make mistakes in this game, but I’m not confident that Pittsburgh will capitalize. I actually like Blake Bortles a little bit this week and plan to target both offenses in my lineups.
2. Travis Kelce vs San Francisco. He is $3K at DK, I am aware. That’s a great price. He isn’t getting much respect at FanDuel either, as the 17th priciest TE ($5300). I love this guy, I really do. But I will not be all in on him this weekend for DFS. It’s a short week, and the Chiefs are on the road, where they’ve traditionally been less productive. I seem to find myself in discussions touting the strength of the SF defense fairly often. I believe in them, and when it comes to TE production, the numbers back me up. The 49ers are allowing just 3.8 FPTs to TE through four weeks. They’ve faced Jason Witten, John Carlson/Rob Housler, Martellus Bennett, and Zach Ertz. Even if you put Kelce in the range of Bennett, I say no thank you. The 49ers have also been one of the best at limiting opponents’ snaps per Pat Thorman of PFF, and limiting team snaps limits Kelce’s already limited snaps (phew). There are higher floor, higher upside plays at TE this week.