NFL DFS Week 3: It’s a Trap!
September 18, 2014 | Renee Miller
Check out The Fake Football Week 3 DFS Cheat Sheet!
I feel like we’re kind of at the narrative tipping point in the season. People have been a little tentative this season, as everyone seems more aware of Primacy Bias and not reading too much into the pre-season. With so much fair mindedness out there, it’s been hard to pick out trap plays for this article. This week I get some relief.
* Antonio Gates scored 3 TDs against the Seattle Seahawks.
* Peyton Manning is a much better QB than Philip Rivers.
* Julius Thomas scores 3 TD all the time.
* DraftKings has Demaryius Thomas priced lower than you this week.
* Richard Sherman is one dimensional and only covers one side of the field.
* DT will play on the other side of the field.
So here it is: don’t play the Broncos this week. If you’re multi-entering a GPP, I’m not going to stop you, but stay away in your cash games. The Seahawks boast the league’s #1 defense overall by miles higher than Sports Authority Stadium at Mile High. For 2013, PFF graded their team defense overall 193.8 (this number reflects roughly the amount they were better on a cumulative per play basis than the neutral play–which would be zero). KC was the next best at 124.2, quite a margin. Remember this grade was overall, but we all know the Seahawks at home are every team’s very worst nightmare.
Another factor in Seattle’s home field advantage is that their offense is more potent at home, seeing 2% increases in pass completion rate, TD rate, and averaging 10% more passing yards per game last season. The team also scored four more rushing TDs at home than on the road last year. Together, even a slightly increased offensive efficiency at home serves to keep opponent’s offenses off the field. That helped them to a 7-1 home record in 2013.
These teams don’t play each other often. Historically, Denver has the 34-18 advantage in W-L. Of course, the one that matters most, Feb 2, 2014 went the way of the Seahawks. Capitalizing on four Denver turnovers produced by that vaunted defense, Russell Wilson and Co. dominated in a 43-8 blowout. I’m not saying this game will play out like the Superbowl, though I like Seattle to win.
Talent and price are key factors in determining your DFS lineups. Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas, and Demaryius Thomas have talent in spades. You’re still paying for Manning and JT, but Demaryius is tempting at a mere $6600 at DraftKings. He’s the guy people are going to want to jump on. Emmanuel Sanders is the other WR that DraftKings wants you to play. He dropped $600 to just $5400.
Just remember, not only do DT and Sanders have the Seattle defense to contend with, they get Wes Welker back in the mix this week. Additional competition for targets in a situation where offensive opportunities are likely to be a lot more limited than the Broncos are accustomed to is not a recipe for success. At any price. There are better options this week.