NFL DFS Week 15: It’s a Trap!
December 12, 2014 | Renee Miller
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You might expect a Johnny Manziel warning here, but you’re not going to get one from me. It’s true that I’ll be using Derek Anderson far more often than Manziel in my lineups, but he’s a lot cheaper, a lot more experienced, and probably has an equivalent floor. Anderson has a much lower ceiling, I agree, but in cash games, particularly on FanDuel, the $1700 savings buys soooo much RB/WR goodness. Manziel is a fine play–as you can read about EVERYWHERE, and if you aren’t using him in at least one lineup this weekend you simply don’t like fun.
So, what trap do you want to avoid this week?
The only play I really want to warn you off of is James Starks. It sounds more and more like Eddie Lacy will be limited with his hip for Week 15 in Buffalo. The latest indicates a possible split of the time and carries for the Packers backfield. That downgrades both guys in my book, but I’ve heard lots of Starks chatter over the past couple days. Look, if you’ve used Lacy lately, your heart has basically stopped every time Starks has come in to spell him and broke off a 15 yard gain. From that perspective, Starks has looked great. Last week vs Atlanta he was 10/75 and scored. But Lacy doubled that…I mean it was the Falcons.
Don’t get me wrong, I like James Starks as a back up in Green Bay and if he were facing any bottom 10 run defense the value would be phenomenal-even in a split. That’s not the case here though. Because Buffalo is a bad football team, people often overlook just how GOOD their defense is. They are PFF’s 3rd best overall defense and 2nd best run defense in the league. For that matter, they rank 7th and 8th in terms of pass coverage and pass rushing too. The Bills defense might not scare you if you just look at fantasy points allowed (7th fewest still isn’t bad), but go a little deeper and see where those points came from and you see a different picture.
They’ve allowed two 3 TD games, one to the Jets and one last week to Denver. They’ve allowed only seven total touchdowns this year to RB. That’s 10 games with zero TDs allowed. In the Jets game, they gave up 78 total rushing yards, and to CJ Anderson, just 56 yards on the ground. This is a solid run defense. I know value RB isn’t really a thing this week (I like Chris Ivory, personally), but I’m not chasing James Starks in Buffalo. Given a tough matchup, if you’re the Packers, you have to believe Aaron Rodgers gives you a better chance to beat the Bills D than a Starks/Lacy timeshare, right?