NFL DFS Week 14: It’s a Trap!
December 5, 2014 | Renee Miller
Do you play NFL DFS? Yes!?! Then be sure to check out The Fake Football Week 14 DFS Cheat Sheet!
Week 14 is one of those weeks where I want to pay up for every position. Obviously that’s not going to be possible, so the question is, where do you go for value? Or more accurately for this article, which value trap do you fall into? Let me lay out the possibilities…
A lot of cheap, inexperienced, or just not good quarterbacks have good matchups this weekend. Shaun Hill gets the Redskins, Teddy Bridgewater hosts the Jets, Kyle Orton goes to Denver, and Zach Mettenberger is home vs the Giants. I think all of these are pretty solid value plays if you want to build around stud RB and WR. The one I’m avoiding is Brian Hoyer ($5200 on DK). In his favor is the fact that despite a 6:1 INT:TD ratio over the past three weeks, the Browns are giving him another chance to start. Plus Vegas has this as a high scoring and surprisingly close game (o/u 50, IND -4). It’s a must win for the Browns. The downside is that with a recent record like that and playoff hopes alive, the leash on Hoyer will be short. We saw Johnny Manziel come in last week to go 5/8 for 63 yards, score a rushing TD and fumble. Here’s how confident DraftKings is in Hoyer–they have Manziel priced $1000 more. Of course, they set salaries when we all assumed Manziel will start, but still. Now we all just assume Manziel will finish.
It’s hard to fade the top guys this week. It’s been a hard year for mid-range RB. It’s hard to find predictable value this week. RB is my least favorite position this week if you can’t tell. Going with one stud guy and one value play is how I’m hedging it. The studs I’m using are Eddie Lacy, LeVeon Bell, and Arian Foster. To do that, I’m skipping the mid-range guys like Mark Ingram, Justin Forsett, and Tre Mason–though I think all are decent plays. That leaves some interesting RB below $5K. Pierre Thomas and Jonathan Stewart are options, as is Terrence West, but my favorites are Andre Williams and Chris Ivory. Who should you avoid down here? It’s Bishop Sankey. Hopefully no one is even tempted at this point, so I won’t elaborate, but given all the opportunities in the world, Sankey has yet to capitalize in a way that benefits your DFS lineups. I realize the Titans are down Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter and that he is merely $4K. I’m unmoved from my anti-Sankey stance. Use Delanie Walker.
The same high-low theme is permeating my WR decisions. Here I end up liking the mid-range cast of characters best. DeAndre Hopkins, Kelvin Benjamin, Jarvis Landry, and Kenny Stills are all guys I have some exposure to. Who won’t I be using? Let’s go back to Jeremy Maclin. He was one of my first trap plays of the season. DraftKings has him priced at $6800 just daring you to use him at home against the Seahawks. The reason I’ll be ignoring them is that he hasn’t had a huge game since the first week of the Mark Sanchez era (Week 9 vs Houston) and he hasn’t been great against good defenses. I’m not as scared of Seattle this year, particularly on the road, but if I’m picking on them at all it’ll be with Jordan Matthews and a much smaller bit of my salary cap. They’ve still allowed the fewest fantasy points to WR this season.