NFL DFS Week 1: It’s A Trap!
September 4, 2014 | Renee Miller
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In this weekly series, I’m going to be spotlighting a player or strategy that people may be high on but I think is best avoided in your DFS lineups. With so much fantasy advice and content available these days, narratives and buzz surround a lot of different players, teams, and strategies. It’s important to remember to separate what we want to happen and what we think should happen on the football field, from what we can reasonably expect to happen.
The situation I’m avoiding in Week 1 is murky RB. There are so many questions about usage leading up to week 1 at all positions, but nowhere more so than RB. Now that RBBC is a thing in the NFL it’s even worse. Some examples, using DraftKings pricing:
Reggie Bush ($6.5K) and Joique Bell ($5.5K)
People are really high on J. Bell this week. It seems to me this is carryover from season long PPR drafts, where I of course love him too. But Reggie Bush is there, is the lead back, and will get more touches, I think. If Bell indeed gets 3rd down and goal line work, as indicated by preseason usage, both their values will be lessoned given their salaries. I could see either one scoring 3 TDs this week vs the Giants, but you’re playing a guessing game to some extent. I don’t like guessing with my DFS lineups.
Rashad Jennings ($5K) and Andre Williams ($3.7K)
Speaking of the Giants, I’m pretty much avoiding their whole offense until it shows me something I can trust. People are in love with Williams but even coaches say “he’s still raw” and is likely only in line for some change of pace or maybe goal line work. I’m not personally a Jennings believer either. At 29, he has yet to secure or maintain a starting job in the NFL. It may be interesting to see how this unfolds (if the Giants prove watchable this season), but I’m not risking my DFS lineups on either one.
Pierre Thomas ($5K) and Mark Ingram ($4.2K)
In NO, I think it’s quite likely that both Ingram and Thomas have a solid week. The situation here differs from that in Detroit because we know the roles these guys play-you want Thomas in PPR (eg. DraftKings or DraftDay) and Ingram in standard. The matchup with Atlanta is one of the highest projected scoring games by Vegas too. If you’re going to wade into the murky RB waters, this is the game I’d do it in, but I think there are better options.
Lamar Miller ($4.8K) and Knowshon Moreno ($4K)
I’m not sure exactly what Moreno did to earn the distrust of fantasy players everywhere. His minor knee procedure? I don’t think it’s a big deal. Competing with Lamar Miller? Also not scared. Lamar Miller has exclusively disappointed when given opportunities. So he’s starting and will get early touches. I expect Moreno to make more of his opportunities and carve out a bigger role in this albeit mediocre offense. He won’t be as good as last year, obviously, but barring injury he’s the back I want in Miami. That said, this is a wait and see situation and I don’t want him at all in DFS this week.
Trent Richardson ($5.3K) and Amhad Bradshaw ($3.9K)
Ah, Indianapolis. Trent Richardson is one of the most divisive players this season. I’m not a believer in the comeback of TRich. Bradshaw has a chance to come in if Richardson struggles, but he hasn’t lit the world on fire in a long time either. It seems unnecessarily foolish to target either IND back this week. The points are coming through the air for Luck and Co.
Maurice Jones-Drew ($4.5K) and Darren McFadden ($4.1K)
Maurice Jones-Drew is actually playable this week so I debated even putting these two in here. He’s healthy, he’s clearly going to see a majority of touches, and he had a strong preseason. McFadden appears to be in line for some work, however, so as with all these time shares, the ceiling on MJD isn’t as high as one might like. Another reason to shy away from this one is the low o/u. Neither the Jets nor the Raiders are expected to be terribly prolific offenses. It’ll be fun to see whether inept offense or inept defense loses this game.
DeAngelo Williams ($4.3K) and Jonathan Stewart ($3.3K)
If you don’t know to avoid the Carolina RB situation by now, you’re a glutton for punishment. In addition to the obvious, I tend to believe in the TB defense this week, Cam Newton isn’t 100%, and the game is predicted to produce the fewest points of all. Not me, not now. Probably not ever, but we’ll see.