MFL10 Strategy: Using DFS Logic in a Season-Long World
July 13, 2016 | Doug Shain
I am totally and completely intrigued by the concept of the MFL10. There are a number of ways to approach one and with how new the concept is there are a ton of people trying a ton of different strategies. The best place to look for various strategies is right here at The Fake Football where our team of writers have put out numerous articles on how to plan for an MFL10 League.
Recently I’ve been playing around with an interesting strategy for my MFL10 teams taken straight from the DFS world. Being that we are in the midst of the baseball season my mind is in full MLB mode. One strategy I use a lot for my MLB teams is finding an offense I like and stacking them. For those that are unfamiliar with the term, stacking is when you take a number of players from the same team and put them in your DFS lineup. The thinking is that if that team hits big you’re going to hit big by having a lot of their players. There’s a level of risk involved with this strategy because if that team does poorly, you can kiss your entry fee goodbye.
Stacking could work excellently in an MFL10 league…and I actually think it’s less risky than stacking a DFS. There are many times I’ve stacked in football, using a team’s QB and WR, only to see the other WR have the big game (I’m looking at you Jacksonville). What a waste of a roster spot. Because lineups are set AFTER a week is completed in an MFL10, it doesn’t really matter who puts up the points on an NFL team so long as you have those players on your roster. Yes, this means eating roster spots with a handcuff RB or a #2 WR (or even a #3 WR), but if you end up hitting on a team that becomes one of the top offenses in football, you’ve just won your MFL10.
Let’s take a look at what would have happened if you tried this strategy with the Arizona Cardinals last year. For argument’s sake, let’s say you went all-in and drafted their 7 top projected players (35% of your roster). Here’s how they did:
Carson Palmer: 347 points (23.13/wk average)
David Johnson: 203 points, RB9 (13.53/wk average)
Chris Johnson: 107 points (9.75/wk average)
Andre Ellington: 73 points (8.09/wk average)
Larry Fitzgerald: 263 points, WR7 (17.53/wk average)
John Brown: 199 points, WR23 (14.21/wk average)
Michael Floyd: 170 points (12.16/wk average)
Those numbers look all well and good until you start to break down when and how those points were accumulated. Larry Fitzgerald looks great as the WR7 on the season, but he was only the highest scoring WR for Arizona 6 times last year. John Brown led the team 5 times and Michael Floyd led 4 teams. If you only drafted Larry Fitzgerald, you’d be pretty happy…for those 6 weeks. His other 9 weeks were merely ok and you could have gotten similar production out of a league average WR. As a matter of fact, there’s no guarantee you’d have accumulated all those points from Fitz on the weeks where he wasn’t the team’s leading WR. On the other hand, if you rostered all 3 of the Arizona WR, you’d have totaled 317 points (21.15 points/wk average) just from the top ARI WR each week. Because of how good the team was on offense there are some weeks you’d have gotten points from 2 of those WR (there were 5 occasions where 2 or more Cardinals WR scored 16+ points in the same week). If you were to consider the combined 317 points from just the top scoring Arizona WR as one player, he would have been the WR3 on the season. If you did the same thing with the RB, you were looking at 259 points from the top Cardinals RB each week. That would have ranked that “player” as the RB2 on the season. Add in Carson Palmer (QB5) and you’ve got yourself a really nice team right there (QB5, RB2, WR3). Adding up those points you get a total of 923 on the season; that’s not even counting those weeks when you’d get points from more than 1 of the WR. If you consider a winning score in an MFL10 league to be 2500 points for the season, that 923 represents 37% of your teams points. You’d get those 37% from 35% of your draft picks. Factor in those double up WR weeks and clearly it made sense to commit 35% of your draft picks to the Arizona Cardinals last year. I think you can do the same thing this year for only 30% of your draft picks since Andre Ellington doesn’t appear to be in the mix. 30% of your picks can turn into 40% of your points. Seems like a good idea, right?
Based on where you can draft certain players there are a lot of offenses that set up nicely for sa stacking strategy. Some teams, like Arizona, are going to require a large investment of early draft picks in order for you to stack them. On the other hand, there are teams like the Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins that have stackable offenses but won’t cost you high draft picks (thus leaving you some room for studs in the first 3-4 rounds).
It’s very important to realize that you can’t go into a draft looking to stack a specific team. If you get the 12th pick in the first round, it’s highly unlikely that you’re going to be able to stack the Cardinals (and based on ADP you’ll never be able to stack Pittsburgh or Dallas), but you can still wait and see how the draft falls before you decide if and who you want to stack. If you do start to stack, make sure you commit to it. Again, there’s no point in stacking Redskins without DeSean Jackson and Keith Marshall. And yes, it’s ok to reach a couple of rounds for a player if you decide to stack.
Personally, I prefer to speculate on a few offenses that could take off this year and stack that way (remember, Arizona wasn’t a highly desirable team last year at this time). Here are 10 teams that you should be able to stack relatively easily that have a solid amount of upside (July MFL PPR ADP in parentheses):
Obviously there are really no limits to which offenses you can stack (CLE is a particularly under the radar team I’m going to play around with), but those are 10 of my favorite. I’d love to hear your opinions on this strategy. Is it something you’ve tried (or will try)? Who is your favorite team to stack? Am I nuts for considering this strategy? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below.
We can keep the conversation going over on Twitter (@bankster17). Keep an eye out for more content from me as we get closer to the Fantasy Football Season and keep on reading all the great stuff put out by the hard-working staff at The Fake Football.