MFL10 Strategy: Preseason Week 1 And What It Means For My MFL10 Draft
August 15, 2016 | Doug Shain
MFL10 Strategy: The First Week of Preseason is Over, What Does That Mean To Me?
The first week of the NFL Preseason has come and gone. We are officially knee deep in NFL Fantasy Draft season and it’s awesome. MFL10’s are only running for about two more weeks so now is the time to get in and take advantage of all the tips and tricks you’ve learned here at The Fake Football for the last six weeks and make that cash.
With all the games now completed for Week 1, it’s time to take an educated guess at what this week meant to MFL10 ADP. For the most part I tend to not worry at all about the top of the draft board, so this article is mostly going to focus on those picks later on in the draft (with a couple of exceptions). I’ll take it game by game and give my thoughts on what we might have learned from each game as it pertains to MFL10’s (and maybe a season long tip or two).
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons
– People are really down on Keith Marshall after his 5 rushes for -1 yard game. I’m not worried about that at all and I’m actually really thrilled that he caught two balls. He’s not known for that so it’s great to see him worked into the passing game a little. I’m still buying him in the 18th round or later.
– Ignore the big game from Aldrick Robinson on ATL. I don’t see him getting on the field much this year.
– Nate Sudfeld looked really good. He’s not an MFL10 option but it wouldn’t shock me if he’s the backup in WSH this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
– I was very impressed with the pocket presence from Carson Wentz. He made one really bad throw but wow, what a gun. It’s too bad he got hurt because I’d like to see more this preseason. That said, I’d only look at him as a 4th QB if you felt the need to go that deep.
– Based on his last two preseason performances, there’s a chance Kenjon Barner makes this team and pushes for carries if something were to happen to Ryan Mathews. Something good happens every time he touches the ball. I’m downgrading Wendell Smallwood just a little to an end game guy instead of a 15th round guy.
– Jameis Winston looked great. I think he ends up with a top 12 year. He’s a guy I’d love to have teamed up with a Matthew Stafford type if I’m waiting on QB.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens
– I’ve been saying it all preseason and I’ll repeat it here: I can definitely see a scenario where Justin Forsett is released. He’s not all that good and BAL can get the same production out of West, Allen, and Dixon without having to pay Forsett. I’m not buying him at his round 9 price. Odds are that I’m avoiding this backfield altogether at this point. There’s no purpose in trying to guess which of the four is going to be worthwhile.
– Brenton Bersin played more snaps with Cam Newton than Devin Funchess did. That’s something to keep an eye on. I probably won’t take Funchess as a top 60 WR at this point and Bersin moves into “late round flier” territory.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
– I’m not moving Mark Ingram up at all because of his two TD’s. He’s slotted right where he should be for now (I might move him up if Jamaal Charles doesn’t get off the PUP in the next week or so).
– Michael Thomas is going in the 9th round over the last two weeks. I’d go as high as the 7th for him right now. He looks great.
– Jimmy Garoppolo should be fine. I’m not downgrading Gronk at all. I do like what I saw from Martellus Bennett. This is going to be a TE heavy pass offense.
– I don’t really want any part of the NE run game. Dion Lewis isn’t special, James White can do what Lewis can do, and Belichick loves Brandon Bolden. I feel really badly for Tyler Gaffney unless Belichick cuts Blount for him, which I don’t think he’ll do. As of right now the only NE RB I’d consider is Blount (12th round) since he figures to get carries near the goal line.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
– ARob is the man and a 1st round value for sure. His 3-80 first quarter only served to make me more comfortable with him. If you can grab him anywhere in round 2 I’d pounce.
– An improved running game and defense means that Blake Bortles will not produce like he did last year. He’s not a top 10 QB for me.
– Chris Ivory > TJ Yeldon. This shouldn’t be a debate at all. Both are going in the 9th round. I’d jump up a round earlier to get Ivory for sure.
– Bilal Powell is one of the top handcuff RB this year. He’s currently a 10th rounder, I’d go 8th.
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
– Forget the shutout, there was still something positive for the Bears. Jeremy Langford looked locked in as the top back. Jordan Howard is no threat. I’m buying Langford at his current 7th round ADP, and I’d even go to the 6th if I’m picking there and didn’t think he’d make it back to me.
– Sanchez is going to start for Denver and he’s going to be ok. He’s a guy that you can get in the 19th round as your 3rd QB. I’d jump up to 18th if I didn’t love my other 2 QB’s. His TD to Demaryius made me feel very good about Thomas as a late 2nd, early 3rd round WR.
– I’m not buying Kapri Bibbs; that 3rd RB spot is Booker’s. I will take a look to see how many catches Latimer gets in the next game. He could be an interesting late game grab if he starts to see time with the 1st string offense.
Miami Dolphins at New York Giants
– Forget the final score, the NYG 1st team defense crushed the Dolphins offense. This is definitely a defense you want to own. They are currently the 18th defense, I’d take them as high as top 12.
– Sterling Shepard is the real deal. He’s currently WR37 in the 7th round. I’d take him as high as the late 5th if you want to make sure you get him. Shepard’s emergence also makes me feel a lot better about Eli Manning. He’s QB10 right now but I’d gladly take him above Blake Bortles.
– Miami’s 1st string offense looked awful. I’m not worrying yet. I’ll worry if they struggle against next week.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers
– Matthew Stafford at QB15 is one of the best bargains going right now. I’d go as high as the 10th round for him. This offense looks really good.
– I think I’d rather own Darrius Heyward-Bey than Sammie Coates. Those two fumbles and one drop look really bad. DHB was making plays and ran good routes. I wasn’t buying Coates at WR48 before this game and I’m surely not now. I’d rather own Travis Benjamin, Michael Thomas, Marcus Wheaton, VJax, DHB, and Bruce Ellington than Coates. DHB is now an end game flier for me.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
– Charles Johnson is running with the first team. He was really good two years ago. He caught a big bomb from Teddy B on Friday. He’s worth a look as your last WR.
– Laquon Treadwell looked very comfortable with a 4-41 game. Maybe Teddy Bridgewater as your 3rd QB isn’t a bad idea after all. You can get him in the 16th round or later with no issue.
– Only 1 catch for Tyler Boyd but he was running with the 1’s. That’s a great sign. He’s a 13th rounder right now but that should change to about the 10th in the next few days. I’m good taking him there.
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers
– Terrell Pryor is a thing and I’m buying. He’s an 18th round guy that can win you a league with his couple of big games this year. I’m going to increase my exposure to him.
– RG3 in the 16th round or later is a very viable 3rd QB option. If I don’t start seeing some positive news about Kaepernick soon I’m going to pivot over to RG3 as my late round QB upside pick.
– I’m not buying the Terrell Watson hype. Give me Duke or Crowell.
– We learned nothing about GB from this game.
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals
– DeAndre Washington had himself a very nice game. The hype train is about to get out of control. I won’t be buying him if we start seeing him go off the board before the 10th round (and I think we will). If you can still get him in the 12th, then I’m ok with that.
– Andre Holmes caught the TD but I’m still on the Seth Roberts bandwagon. He’s one of my favorite late round picks.
– We learned nothing about ARI from this game.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
– It’s not an MFL10 thing, but boy did Treyvone Boykin look good for Seattle.
– Christine Michael got the carries but I still think Alex Collins will emerge as the backup to own. That said, Michael definitely moves into 20th round pick consideration.
– Russell Wilson looked for Doug Baldwin twice on the first drive. Baldwin is going to have a good year. I like him better than Kelvin Benjamin, Edelman, and Moncrief (all of whom are going before Baldwin).
– I still say that Spencer Ware is the player to own if Jamaal Charles goes down. You can get him really late in MFL10 drafts. If you own Charles I’d pick Ware as high as the 10th or 11th round to be safe.
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
– Rough game for Josh Ferguson. I didn’t love seeing it but I’m not dropping down on him yet. I still say he emerges as the backup to Gore.
– Jonathan Williams and Mike Gillislee both played well. I could see a scenario where Karlos Williams is traded. I don’t think this team needs Reggie Bush at all.
San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans
– Melvin Gordon scored on a pass? I didn’t know he could catch the ball. I won’t read too much into this but it would be very bad for Danny Woodhead if Gordon continued to catch passes. I’m high on Gordon this year anyway so this only further cemented that feeling. He’s a 7th rounder right now but I’d have no issue grabbing him in the 6th.
– How about that Tennessee offense? I try not to read too much into preseason but wow did they look sharp. Speaking of Sharpe, Tajae Sharpe looks legit. He’s currently a 17th rounder. I’d be comfortable with him in the 13th. I think I’m going to try to replace all my DGB shares with Sharpe going forward.
– Marcus Mariota looked great. He’s in for a nice season this year. Top 15 season coming up. Great QB2 for an MFL10 squad.
– I’ve been loving DeMarco Murray all off season. He was going as late as the 7th round but now he’s up to the late 5th. I’d take him in the 4th at this point. He’s a perfect option for an RB1 if you go WR-WR-WR. I especially love him if you’re picking late in the 4th so you can wrap around with a 2nd RB like Ryan Mathews or go with a TE like Greg Olsen.
– If you read my stacking article you know that I love doing that. TEN is one of those teams where you can do so for cheap. That two-headed RB monster is going to pay off nicely for you if you reach for both and make the investment.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
– Dak Prescott looked like a real NFL QB. I won’t get him in an MFL10 but if Romo goes down I feel a lot better about Dez than I did yesterday. Speaking of, Dez looked good in scoring that TD. He’s a late first rounder for sure.
– Tyler Higbee lived up to the hype at TE. He’s in play if you’re drafting 3 TE.
– Don’t be surprised if Sean Mannion is the starter over Case Keenum for LA. Mannion was a highly touted prospect when he went to Oregon St and has a lot of talent. He’s much more suited for the pro game than Keenum is. I wouldn’t take him in an MF10 yet but if he’s named the starter in the next two weeks I’d surely consider it.
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
– Blaine Gabbert does not look like the answer at QB for the 49ers. I still think that Kaepernick can put up very useful numbers in this offense if he gets his head on straight.
– Carlos Hyde had one good run; he had great vision and burst through the hole. He broke a tackle and looked great as he glided 22 yards down the field. I don’t really care that he fumbled two plays later. He’s a solid 4th rounder for me but I’d grab him late 3rd if I felt I had to.
– Jalen Strong did nothing to dissuade me from loving him as an end of the draft lottery ticket.