MFL10 Strategy: Don’t Be Afraid to Pounce
July 25, 2016 | Doug Shain
MFL10 Strategy: Don’t Be Afraid to Pounce
*all ADP Data is as of July 15, 2016 in 12 team MFL10 PPR leagues
Wow, my last article caused some controversy. If you haven’t yet read it, click here to check it out. Make sure to throw come commentary my way on Twitter so we can clear the air and hug it out.
Arian Foster recently signed with the Dolphins and just like that I can’t draft him anymore. You see, I love taking guys like Foster. Well, I LOVED taking guys like Foster. Superstar players with big question marks that slip in the draft are kind of my thing. Everyone was so worried about where Arian Foster was going to sign and his ADP was rock bottom. You could get Arian Foster, ARIAN FOSTER, in the 11th round of an MFL draft as recently as July 15. He was being selected after such luminaries as Sammie Coates, Kenneth Dixon, Devin Funchess, and Travis Benjamin (all good players but none with the upside of Foster). Now those days of 11th round value are dead and gone for Mr. Foster. I bet that you’re going to start to see him go in the 6th round of drafts by the time this article gets published (it’s round 8 as of July 24). The time to strike has passed.
Was Arian Foster ever not going to sign with someone? Besides actually having a team, what changed? Why was everyone so scared of drafting Foster? Was he really ever going to go to a team like Kansas City or Los Angeles where we knew he wasn’t going to be starting? Of course he wasn’t. Foster was always going to go to Miami or New England or Detroit where he’d have a chance to get some playing time. Foster isn’t “the man” but he’s very much a player in Miami even with Ajayi and Drake in the fold; one injury from mega-stats. Unfortunately, you lost your chance to pounce on that value as soon as he got signed.
A few years back Josh Gordon was suspended for the first 2 games of the season. Everyone ran away from him. I didn’t run away from him. I got him in every single one of my leagues…and I got him nice and late (my WR5 or WR6 in most cases) because people were scared off by a 2-game suspension. As we all know, Gordon had a monster 14 games. I made A LOT of money that year.
Last year we had a very similar situation with Le’Veon Bell and his suspension. As it turned out, he got injured after his big return but when he played he was great. If you were smart enough to grab Bell early and DeAngelo Williams late (which you should have…always handcuff your injury prone studs if they have good backups), I bet you made a lot of money as well. UPDATE: since I wrote that early part of the paragraph we once again have this exact same situation. The only difference is that DeAngelo Williams is rocketing up the draft board and we are yet to see a massive drop by Bell (still 2nd round for now). When the drop comes, and it should come, attack!
People also ran away from Todd Gurley early on last year because he was coming off the ACL injury and STL was going to ease him into the offense since they had Tre Mason to start for them. How did that work out for everyone who passed on Gurley?
Heck, even Tom Brady slipped in drafts last year because of his suspension/non-suspension. My brother won one of our season long leagues because he waited on QB, grabbed Brady (since everyone feared a mid-year suspension), and won the league handily.
So, what does this all have to do with MFL10’s? I’m glad you asked. There are a number of big name players who have considerable question marks. I think that you should be proactive and grab a few of these guys on your teams and reap the rewards when they play their 12-16 games and put up their normal, excellent statistics on a per game basis.
Some guys who are in this scenario are:
Continue to monitor the news as training camp opens and look for places where people are going to overreact. You’ll find that there are a lot of players you’ll be able to grab anywhere from half a round to 5 rounds later than where they’d normally go with even the slightest bit of doubt regarding their situation. In this day and age of social media we are quick to way overreact to everything. Don’t be that guy. Be level-headed and take advantage of the reactionary nature of the general public.
Remember, this is a best ball league so you never have to worry about sitting a guy when he has a big week. This is exactly the type of league that rewards players with the guts to make the picks other people are too scared to make. Don’t overdraft these guys, but when the right spot hits you’ve got to tighten those boot straps and click submit on a potential league winning pick.
We can keep the conversation going over on Twitter (@bankster17). Keep an eye out for more content from me as we get closer to the Fantasy Football Season and keep coming back to read all the great articles put out by the hard-working staff at The Fake Football.