How Does Running Back ADP Correlate To Results? May 5, 2012  |  Chet


So I decided to take a quick look at ADP vs. Results for running backs because I’m still pretty firmly set in the draft running backs early camp and I want to try to at least visualize my odds of getting a productive one in the first few rounds. Things have changed of late in the stud running back department. We used to see the Faulks, Holmesss, Alexanders and Tomlinsons repeat as #1 Fantasy RBs fairly easily, but that’s not as common in the last few years. Does that mean it won’t happen again? Not at all. So much depends on health and opportunity that making any blanket statement at this point is just stupid. I do believe it is getting more difficult for RBs to dominate the game, but with the right situation there is no reason it can’t happen. Adrian Peterson was a top 4 fantasy RB his first 4 years and even hit 8th last year despite his injury. That is dominate.

In the last 5 years there has been an average of 8 running backs per year that finished in the top 20 that were not drafted in the top 20 which means on average 8 running backs that were drafted in the top 20 don’t finish there. And those 8 and 8 are usually due to injuries. I’m finding it hard to see any reason to not feel somewhat good about pre-season rankings and ADP for the top 20 running backs. Yes, the intricacies of the rankings from expert to expert aren’t trivial and can decide if you win your league or not, but as far as the consensus rankings go that somewhat drive each season I don’t see any reason to throw them out the window. I’m all for tipping rankings on their head, but not just for the sake of tipping. For me the real fantasy analysis pops up later in the draft. What players do you go after in the mid to late rounds that will pop up into those 8 slots? If you drafted one of the 8 players who get injured during the season did you also draft one of the players who fills that void? You can’t predict injuries, you can only hope you have selected enough value in your draft to make it through the injuries.

 

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