The Hail Mary (NFL HuLo GPP Plays): Week 2 WEEKEND UPDATE September 16, 2017  |  Doug Shain


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The Huddle – Opening Statement

 

Welcome to the 2017 Hail Mary for Week 2.  For those of you who read this article last year or any of my stuff on The Fake Hockey and The Fake Baseball you’re going to find this article very familiar.  For those of you who are new please allow me to take a moment to explain where I’m coming from and what you’re going to see in this article.

First and foremost I’m mostly a GPP player and that’s who this article is mostly designed to help.  I write for players like me – the guy or gal who enters a single bullet in a couple of low limit GPP’s each week; the casual DFS player.  This group of players probably makes up a much larger percentage of the DFS community than you think.  If you are a cash game player or a  high buy-in/high volume/multi-entry GPP player you should still read this because it’ll give you an everyman perspective that you might not get in other articles (there are plenty of those on this site and I urge you to read them as well because they are fantastic).

Be advised that playing a single bullet in a large field GPP is a very volatile game and you’re going to lose more often than you win.  That’s a fact and it’s something you have to know before you start playing.  Due to the volatility of this game I’m going to try to give you plays that can help you zoom to the top of your GPP leaderboard.  These plays are very boom or bust, so please know that going in.

One way that I like to separate from the field is by trying to anticipate ownership rates of certain players.  Over the course of the year I’ll get into this more deeply, but just know for now that all things being equal (and even in some cases when it’s not), I’m going to recommend the player that’s going to have a lower ownership rate.

In my mind there are two groups of people who play in large field GPP’s that dictate ownership percentages.  One group is the true amateurs who are just going to play for fun and not put too much time into making optimal lineups.  We’re going to call them “MOST PEOPLE” – they’ll be referred to as Public Players (or Casual Players). Most people don’t do the DFS thing for a living or for higher stakes and they are going to play players they know and like.  They’re not going to dig deep and look for Jacquizz Rodgers and Ted Ginn (yes, that’s digging deep for MOST PEOPLE).  They are going to target very well-known players like Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Brown, and David Johnson.  These well-known players aren’t going to change much and should have a fairly high ownership every single week regardless of matchup.

One thing to note, the general population is starting to get a lot smarter with DFS but that can lead to them outthinking themselves and leaving some obvious plays as potential value plays. One example of this was last year in Week 16 when, after being terrible all year, Todd Gurley was the chalk against a terrible 49ers defense. That left David Johnson, with a seemingly tough matchup against Seattle, as a guy who ended up with a severely low ownership. Gurley was ok against SF (87 total yards and a TD), while David Johnson was one of the three highest scoring RB that week (136 total yards and 3 TD) and won people GPP’s. I’ll try my best to identify these types of instances (which I did that week) so you can exploit them to your benefit.

 

 

 

The other group of players that play in large field GPP’s are people who follow every fantasy expert on Twitter, watch all the fantasy shows on TV, and are up to date on all the big “sleepers” (there is no such thing anymore as sleepers).  We will refer to these players as DFS EXPERTS.  They are hip to the ins and outs of DFS, they are well-informed, and they are going to win by playing their big sleepers like Zay Jones.  What’s that you say?  Everyone who’s ever read anything about fantasy knows that Jones is cheap, is in a great situation, and has a good matchup in Week 1?  No kidding, and he’s going to be a really highly owned punt play at WR. Like I said, there are no sleepers.

My goal is to try to find players that don’t fit either of these two categories.  I want to find guys that’ll be low owned and could have a good game (I call them HuLo players – High Upside, Low Ownership).  These players tend to either be “boring” veterans, very risky plays, or players who are overshadowed by bigger names on their teams.  For example, I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of people who are talking about Carson Palmer for Week 1.  I think he could be a part of a GPP-winning team.  Do I think he will be the highest scoring QB in Week 1?  No, I think that’ll be Cam Newton, but I do think he can return significant value because he has a loaded WR corps and is priced in such a way that you can field a winning lineup with him as your QB.  Fantasy is all about you finding the value that your opponents didn’t.

I have some “musts” when I set my GPP lineups.  I’ll highlight those as I go through the explanation of how I built my teams.

It is a must that I get a QB that is going to throw a lot when building my GPP teams.

It is a must that I get RB that are guaranteed touches when building my GPP teams.

It is a must that my WR have upside when building my GPP teams.

When building my GPP teams it is a must that my TE is elite or is a punt. There is no in between for me with TE.

When building my GPP teams it is a must that my defense gets to the quarterback.

It is a must that I take a min-priced kicker when building my GPP teams.

– It is a must that I include at least some HuLo plays when building my GPP teams.

– It is a must that I remember that chalk is chalk for a reason, and that using chalk isn’t a bad thing.

The Depth Chart – The Plays of the Week

 

 

 

QB

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Matt Ryan (ATL) vs GBMarcus Mariota (TEN) @ JAXCam Newton (CAR) vs BUF
Carson Palmer (ARI) @ INDPhillip Rivers (LAC) vs MIAJoe Flacco (BAL) vs CLE
Alex Smith (KC) vs PHIRussell Wilson (SEA) vs SFBen Roethlisberger (PIT) vs MIN
Tom Brady (NE) @ NOJay Cutler (MIA) @ LAC
Drew Brees (NO) vs NEJared Goff (LAR) vs WSH
Aaron Rodgers (GB) @ ATLJacoby Brissett (IND) vs ARI
Derek Carr (OAK) vs NYJ

Guys I Won’t Touch: Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler

I’m kind of all over the place with this list because there are tons of guys I won’t touch but nobody would so it’s not special to single them out (like Josh McCown, nobody is going to own Josh McCown). There are many reasons why I’m avoiding these guys but to keep this to a reasonable length I’ll give you on reason for each player. I don’t trust that Alex Smith is ever going to play a game like he played last Thursday night, and this week he’s facing a much better defense. Carson Palmer has burned me for the last time in early start East Coast games. The Seahawks aren’t going to pass all that much against SF because they won’t need to; Week 2 is all about establishing the running game. Joe Flacco is a terrible NFL QB and I don’t care that he’s facing the Browns. Jay Culter, I mean, really? It’s Jay Cutler.

 

Guys I Can See Using: Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Cam Newton, Jared Goff

Now we are starting to get into the players that are worth having in your GPP lineup; just not my favorite batch of players. ATL/GB should be a shootout but I just don’t trust the Falcons at all this year. If one team is going to falter in this game, it will be Atlanta. Last year was a totally anomaly for Ryan and I think he reverts back to the 4000 yard, 25 TD QB he’s always been. That’s not worth losing the ownership game for. Carr, Mariota, and Newton should all be fine but I just think that there are better options on this slate. Jared Goff was a tough omission from the “my guys” list after he proved me so very right last week but the Redskins are a totally different beast than the Colts. I want to see it one more time before I go back to that well. I’ll just take my profits and move to another table.

 

 

My Guys:

Tier 1: Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers

Tier 2: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers

Tier 3: Jacoby Brissett

I’m obsessed with Big Ben this weekend. Instead of coming at you with a whole new set of information, let me just copy what I wrote on Monday for the first version of this article:

“The Minnesota Vikings just dismantled Drew Brees and Roethlisberger is coming off a game that was pedestrian. Don’t let any of that fool you. Ben is a totally different QB at home and he’s crushed excellent defenses year in and year out at Heinz Field when he was totally counted out. Case in point, last year in Week 4 he was coming off a drubbing in Philadelphia where he threw for 250 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT in a 34-3 loss. The Chiefs came into that game having just picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick SIX TIMES (sadly I didn’t have to look that up) en route to a 24-3 win. Everyone was down on PIT that weekend. Someone you may know told you to not follow group think and instead run towards the danger (read what I wrote here). Do you know what happened? He threw for 300 yards and 5 TD and just like I said he would, he won people a lot of money. This week there’s more of that coming our way. ALWAYS PLAY BEN ROETHLISBERGER AT HOME!” So yeah, that.

If I had to split my ownership between 2 QB’s in order to diversify the portfolio, then the other guy I like is Rivers. He plays really well most seasons in the first eight or so games and he sure showed in on Monday night against Denver with 3 TD. Miami is a team I feel bad for picking on but they’ve had a lot going on and it’s yet to be seen how into this game they are going to be. I love his price and with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Ryan stealing all the ownership you should be able to sneak by with a pretty reasonable rate on Rivers.  Speaking of the big four, I’ve already talked about Ryan but have yet to reference the other three. If I was making a straight bet on who would be the highest scoring QB this week and was given even odds on everyone, then these would be the three guys I’d put my money on. That’s not how DFS works and I have to worry about things like ownership and price. A high ownership and high price means that I’m better off fading these guys and using a Big Ben or Rivers to try to vault to the top of a GPP. That said, I’m a guy that uses 5-6 lineups each week so I’ll have at least a little exposure to Brady, Brees, and Rodgers (maybe 25-30% of my lineups will include one of these three, where 50% will be Ben and maybe 20% Rivers). If I want to go really far off the rails then I’m going to look to Jacoby Brissett. He’s got a fantastic group of pass catchers to work with and the Cardinals proved in Week 1 that they are really bad on the road with an early start. You can really load up the rest of your team if you do a Brissett/Doyle or Brissett/Hilton stack and pray.

 

 

RB

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Marshawn Lynch (OAK) vs NYJBuck Allen (BAL) vs CLELeSean McCoy (BUF) @ CAR
Kerwynn Williams (ARI) @ INDJonathan Stewart (CAR) vs BUFEzekiel Elliott (DAL) @ DEN
Leonard Fournette (JAX) vs TENCJ Anderson (DEN) vs DALJordan Howard (CHI) @ TB
Kareem Hunt (KC) vs PHIJames White (NE) @ NOChris Carson (SEA) vs SF
Mike Gillislee (NE) @ NODevonta Freeman (ATL) vs GBRobert Kelley (WSH) @ LAR
LeVeon Bell (PIT) vs MINJacquizz Rodgers (TB) vs CHIThomas Rawls (SEA) vs SF
Tarik Cohen (CHI) @ TBMelvin Gordon (LAC) vs MIACarlos Hyde (SF) @ SEA
Dalvin Cook (MIN) @ PITTodd Gurley (LAR) vs WSHChristian McCaffrey (CAR) vs BUF
Jay Ajayi (MIA) @ LACAlvin Kamara (NO) vs NE
Ty Montgomery (GB) @ ATLRex Burkhead (NE) @ NO

Guys I Won’t Touch: Kerwynn Williams, Mike Gillislee, Tarik Cohen, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, CJ Anderson

I’m not as down on Gordon, Gurley, or Anderson as the “won’t touch” moniker would lead you to believe, it’s just that I won’t own them anywhere. There are better players at a similar price point that I just favor more. Tarik Cohen is an interesting case because I do like his skill set and potential role but we’ve seen both the best matchup and best game he’s going to have all year. ATL is on a three year run of being by far the worst team in football against pass catching RB and Cohen was just another in a long line of players that took advantage of that. There’s no way I’m paying his ownership cost knowing that he won’t replicate that performance. As for Kerwynn Williams and Mike Gillislee, I think it’s insane to use either of these guys. We don’t know what Arizona is going to do (besides be terrible) with David Johnson out and it’s not like they showed a great deal of confidence in Williams as they ran out to sign Chris Johnson. His ownership is going to be way too high. Gillislee, like Cohen, just had the best game of his career and it’s not happening again. I can see him not even being on the field for 20% of the snaps for NE this weekend with this projected to be a high scoring, passing type of game. This is a James White/Rex Burkhead week.

Guys I Can See Using: LeVeon Bell, Kareen Hunt, Marshawn Lynch, Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, James White, Rex Burkhead

I’ll start at the back of the list first since I already referenced them; NE is going to pass a lot and that means White and Burkhead will be on the field a ton. There’s even talk of Burkhead working the slot with Amendola already ruled out. I’ll probably have very little of either guy (owning NE RB is insane) but I get it if you think you need to have exposure. As for the other five guys on this list, it’s not like I can tell you to ever not play Bell, Hunt, Lynch, Cook, or Freeman. All five could see plenty of action and none of them have particularly scary matchups. I just think I can do better with other plays (also, I don’t want to deal with the ownership on Hunt point chasers or Bell bounce back speculators).

My Guys:

Tier 1: Ty Montgomery, Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Stewart, Thomas Rawls

Tier 2: Buck Allen, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jay Ajayi

Tier 3: Alvin Kamara, LeSean McCoy

I don’t really care how popular he’s going to be, and he will be popular (like highest owned on the slate popular), I’m going to own Ty Montgomery all over the place. He saw more RB snaps than any RB in the NFL last week, he’s got a great matchup against the aforementioned piss poor Falcons pass catching RB defense, and he’s very reasonably priced. It’s been said that Mike McCarthy envisions TyMont as his version of David Johnson and that’s good enough for me. He could be this week’s Tarik Cohen or Kareem Hunt. I’m going to live and die with this play. In order to help with the high ownership I’ll be sharing on TyMont, I’m going to try my best to pair him with Ezekiel Elliott. I think that Elliott goes away overlooked this weekend against a Broncos defense that people don’t realize are bad against the run. Ideally I’d like roll out a lineup where I can fit in Ben, TMont, Elliott, AB, Cooks, and JJ Nelson but that’s a hard lineup to make no matter what site you play on (but it can, and will, be done). If you’re not totally into that lineup, and thus may have more cap space, there are some interesting RB2/FLEX options out there that I love. JStew, Thomas Rawls, Buck Allen, Jacquizz Rodgers, and Alvin Kamara are all very inexpensive and should factor heavily into their team’s offensive game plans (I’m using the word “heavily” loosely in Kamara’s case). Stewart is going to get his carries even if CMC is on the field and he’ll be the one burning the clock at the end of the game this weekend. I think that Thomas Rawls is going to take the Seahawks RB1 job and end any debate this week. The 49ers are terrible against the run and Rawls could end the week as the biggest value of the board. Buck Allen is the guy who got the passing down work when Danny Woodhead got injured in Week 1. He looked a lot better than West and should get at least 50% of the action for Baltimore in a great matchup against the Browns. Rodgers is the man in Tampa Bay until (and maybe after) Doug Martin comes off suspension. Kamara looked better than either of the two older RB on the Saints. In a game where speed and route-running ability is going to be paramount it won’t shock me if he’s the guy on the field most for the Saints in Week 2. LeSean McCoy isn’t being talked about by anyone and there’s concern about the heavy workload Mike Tolbert saw in Week 1. Pish posh! McCoy is a stud and will put up studly numbers regardless of matchup or the Plumpy #2 (a household nickname for Tolbert; LenDale White was Plumpy #1) factor.

 

 

 

 

WR

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Randall Cobb (GB) @ ATLMichael Crabtree (OAK) vs NYJChris Hogan (NE) @ NO
Antonio Brown (PIT) vs MINMarqise Lee (JAX) vs TENBennie Fowler (DEN) vs DAL
Adam Theilen (MIN) @ PITCorey Davis (TEN) @ JAXStefon Diggs (MIN) @ PIT
Ted Ginn Jr (NO) vs NEDeSean Jackson (TB) vs CHITY Hilton (IND) vs ARI
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) @ INDJermaine Kearse (NYJ) @ OAKMartavis Bryant (PIT) vs MIN
Tyreek Hill (KC) vs PHIJJ Nelson (ARI) @ INDSammy Watkins (LAR) vs WSH
Nelson Agholor (PHI) @ KCDoug Baldwin (SEA) vs SFTravis Benjamin (LAC) vs MIA
Brandin Cooks (NE) @ NOKenny Stills (MIA) @ LAC
Michael Thomas (NO) vs NEPaul Richardson (SEA) vs SF
Jordy Nelson (GB) @ ATLDavante Adams (GB) @ ATL
Mike Evans (TB) vs CHIMohamed Sanu (ATL) vs GB
Amari Cooper (OAK) vs NYJ
Keenan Allen (LAC) vs MIA
Julio Jones (ATL) vs GB
Davante Parker (MIA) @ LAC
Cooper Kupp (LAR) vs WSH

Guys I Won’t Touch: Adam Theilen, Nelson Agholor, Davante Parker, Tyreek Hill, Doug Baldwin, Bennie Fowler, Larry Fitzgerald

I’m sure I’m getting plenty of eye rolls with names like Theilen, Hill, Baldwin, and Fitz on this list. The crazy thing is that I love most of those players (not Tyreek Hill; never Tyreek Hill) but just not as a GPP option in Week 2. Theilen could be in trouble if Sam Bradford is out. Even with Bradford play, the ownership is going to out of control. Joe Haden will be covering Theilen, not some Saints third year schlub that can’t start for New Mexico State. Hard pass on that potential disaster. Agholor and Fowler were Kevin Ogletree Week 1 All Stars; it’s not happening again (though Agholor may be a half decent WR someday; not so much for Fowler). I want to see Jay Cutler’s demeanor before I fire up any Miami WR. Doug Baldwin is my favorite name on this list but I just don’t see the SEA game plan being favorable this week. Larry Fitz has a great matchup but give me JJ Nelson for a lot cheaper. Tyreek Hill is a flukey one week wonder that somehow has lasted for damn near a full season. Scoring a 60 yd TD is a fluke. He’s had that fluke for an NFL record six straight weeks. If Hill was that good he would have been a better prospect in the 2016 draft. Once this fluke run is over, Hill is going to be one of the biggest disappointments for the 2017 season.

Guys I Can See Using: Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Paul Richardson, Chris Hogan, Keenan Allen

With the ability to start up to 4 WR on some sites there are just too many names to put on this list, so I just threw a few of the more intriguing names at you. Jordy and Cooper are perfectly acceptable plays but they are pretty pricey for players that I think will play second fiddle in their teams’ Week 2 game plan. I love the TB passing game but if I’m spending up at WR (and I am) there are players I’d rather have than Mike Evans. Evans is too expensive for me to be so indecisive about him. I can say the same thing about Keenan Allen as I did about the other two sets of WR. He’s not the WR I want on that team this week, and the other players at his price point are more intriguing to me. The two guys that I’m looking most closely to from this list are Richardson and Hogan. One (Richardson) is on the way up, while the other (Hogan) was a huge disappointment. Richardson asserted himself as the clear WR2 on the Seahawks last week. His athleticism is outstanding and he and Wilson seem to have a connection. He may be on his way to the WR1 spot for Seattle before too long. Hogan was a posh pick in Week 1 and he was hot garbage. I should clarify, he was fine but Tom Brady couldn’t seem to figure out that he wasn’t throwing to Manute Bol. Once these two get in sync they are going to be fine, and it could be as soon as this week. Even if that’s the case, I want Cooks coming back to New Orleans much more than I want to take a shot on Hogan.

My Guys:

Tier 1: Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, JJ Nelson, Travis Benjamin

Tier 2: TY Hilton, Ted Ginn Jr, Martavis Bryant, Kenny Stills, Julio Jones

Tier 3: Cooper Kupp, DeSean Jackson, Corey Davis, Marqise Lee

As I said in the RB section, ideally I want Brown/Cooks/Nelson as my 3 WR this week (unless I start Rivers, then I want Benjamin in there instead of Nelson). You read what I thought about Ben this weekend. Guess who he’s throwing to? Even if Pittsburgh were to struggle, Brown is going to get his. Cooks back in New Orleans in maybe the highest scoring game of the year with a pissed off Tom Brady throwing to him? ALL OF THAT!! I’m sad that John Brown is out this week because that’s going to alert people to JJ Nelson. I was on Nelson anyway (read Monday’s column). The Colts may be an interesting defense to use because of how Carson Palmer may play but that doesn’t mean that we can’t use a cheap home run WR option in that game as well? Also, the Colts defense is bad and I’m a little crazy for considering them (keep reading). In that same game, it’s pretty reasonable to believe that Jacob Brissett is a huge upgrade over Scott Tolzein. If that’s the case then TY Hilton is a surefire beneficiary of that. He will be owned by very few, yet has the ability to win you a GPP. We have three potential shootouts this weekend and getting exposure to them is paramount. Ginn, Bryant, and Julio are three guys that I’ll be looking to in those games (although Julio is only a consideration if I’m not using Zeke/AB or AB/Cook). There’s a very real possibility that my main GPP lineup this week has Ben/AB/Bryant stack. If I believe in that offense, I might as well go all in. Kenny Stills is a guy I’m going to use to test a trend that seemed to work last year. I don’t remember the team, I think it was Arizona, that gave up major points to their opponent’s WR3 for about two months in a row (like the Bears with pass catching RB). Last week the Chargers gave up a 2 TD game to Bennie fricking Fowler. Kenny Stills is the WR3 on Miami with a pretty big armed, gunslingin’ QB. Kupp is the guy you want in your lineup if you’re trying to fill a hole with a 6-65 type of WR. Lee, DJax, and Davis are trying to find the needle in the haystack that will pop for a 65 yard TD.

 

 

 

TE

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Greg Olsen (CAR) vs BUFJack Doyle (IND) vs ARIBen Watson (BAL) vs CLE
Travis Kelce (KC) vs PHIDelaine Walker (TEN) @ JAXZach Ertz (PHI) @ KC
Rob Gronkowski (NE) @ NOCoby Fleener (NO) vs NECameron Brate (TB) vs CHI
Jordan Reed (WSH) @ LARMartellus Bennett (GB) @ ATLJared Cook (OAK) vs NYJ
Austin Hooper (ATL) vs GBKyle Rudolph (MIN) @ PITCharles Clay (BUF) @ CAR

Guys I Won’t Touch: Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Austin Hooper, Martellus Bennett

I don’t want to spend up for TE this weekend unless it’s Kelce (who needs to get established into this offense) or Gronk (that game could go over 70 points), and I don’t really want to spend up for them either. There’s no way I’m using Greg Olsen or Jordan Reed until their QB’s prove that they can hit water in an ocean. Neither QB looked good at all in Week 1, nor am I paying a premium in the hopes that they can turn it around this week. For all the hype surrounding Austin Hooper’s big Week 1 game, the dude only had two targets. It’s just that he happened to convert them into 128 yards and a TD. That’s Tyreek Hill’s game, not Austin Hooper’s. If you use him expecting that type of game then you are paying for a mirage. I don’t like how Martellus Bennett spoke of fantasy players so I will not use Martellus Bennett. Sometimes you have to stick to your principles.

Guys I Can See Using: Jack Doyle, Ben Watson (or Nick Boyle), Cameron Brate, Kyle Rudolph

Jack Doyle was a close call for “my guys” and that may very well change between now and the time I submit my lineups on Sunday. Brissett should be able to move the ball for Indy and Doyle is going to be the safety net. Let’s not forget that the Colts love to use their TE, they just didn’t have a QB under center last week that could get it to them. They do this week. Yeah, Doyle is very much borderline “my guys” worthy. I’d consider the Ravens TE more closely if I knew who was going to get the work. Last weekend all three of the TE on the roster saw exactly one target each. That doesn’t give me a great deal of confidence. On the other hand, they are playing the Browns and the Browns give up TD to TE like they get bonuses for it (and this is going back to last year as well). If we can get some clarity on who will get the work, then I might move that guy into Tier 3 of “my guys”. Potentially playing the role of Austin Hooper against the Bears this weekend is Cameron Brate. I’m not worried about OJ Howard stealing his playing time or target share. Kyle Rudolph will become a big target for MIN if Sam Bradford can’t go or is limited. Heck, even if Bradford is fine he’s more of a check down player than he is a mad bomber.

My Guys:

Tier 1: Jared Cook, Coby Fleener, Delanie Walker

Tier 2: Rob Gronkowski, Charles Clay

Tier 3: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz

*Quickly checks to see which TE is playing the Jets, inserts him as his top TE for the week.* That’s pretty much how it’s going to go all year for me. The Jets are awful at defending opposing TE. Charles Clay saw nine targets and nabbed a score in Week 1. Jared Cook is Charles Clay in silver and black. You’re not going to pay a ton for him so a 4-40-1 game is outstanding. Lost in their bad Week 1 performance, Coby Fleener was really good for the Saints. He had six targets and a TD and looks to be filling the role Willie Snead left behind when he got suspended. Speaking of targets, Delanie Walker had nine of them in Week 1 and that was second on the team. He’s never not going to get his production so I’m all about using him if I have the cap space to do so. Gronk is really pricey and he’s going to be really popular. I don’t love that combination but I fear that if I don’t have some exposure to him then I’m going to get burned. Charles Clay is about the only guy who can catch passes on the Bills and his nine targets last week were very reassuring. He’s a very good play at a low price point, even with limited upside. Kelce and Ertz are main targets for their QB’s but they are pricey. I’ll use them a little but won’t have big exposure to any of them.

 

 

 

DST

Public PlaysExpert PlaysHuLo Plays
Baltimore Ravens vs CLEJacksonville Jaguars vs TENIndianapolis Colts vs ARI
Carolina Panthers vs BUFKansas City Chiefs vs PHITennessee Titans @ JAX
Arizona Cardinals @ INDDenver Broncos vs DALLos Angeles Chargers vs MIA
Seattle Seahawks vs SFPittsburgh Steelers vs MINMinnesota Vikings @ PIT
Los Angeles Rams vs WSH
Oakland Raiders vs NYJ

Guys I Won’t Touch: Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings

I don’t know why I’d use any of these teams when I can get similarly priced defenses with significantly better matchups. Are we sure that Buffalo won’t run all over Carolina? Are we sure that the Jags can repeat a ten sack performance against a non-statue QB like Mariota? Are we sure that the Vikings can contain the Steelers home aerial attack (they cant’)? Way too many questions for my liking, especially at a position where I don’t care much about price or ownership.

 

Guys I Can See Using: Arizona Cardinals, LA Rams, Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos

There is nothing at all wrong with using any of these teams. They all have very good matchups (except Denver but they are Denver) that we can take advantage of. I just don’t think that any of them have a real shot at being the top scoring defense on the slate (although you could have made a case for Arizona against Tolzein; not so against Brissett). The one team I hemmed and hawed about was the Rams but like it is with the rest of this team, show me against someone other than Indy before I fully believe.

 

My Guys:

Tier 1: Baltimore Ravens

Tier 2: Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, LA Chargers

Tier 3: Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s honestly Baltimore or Bust for me in Week 2. This defense feels totally legit and they are at home against a rookie QB coming off a “false confidence” home start against the Steelers. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see the Ravens do to Cleveland what the Jags did to the Texans last weekend. If I’m not using the Ravens then the Seahawks are the other expensive defense that intrigues me. They are one of the biggest favorites on the slate and they are probably pretty pissed off after Aaron Rodgers tore them up in Week 1. They are not going to let the 49ers come into the home of the 12th man and move the ball at all. This one could get ugly. I really like the idea of stacking the defense with Thomas Rawls. I’m interested in the Titans and Chargers because they play Pick Six Machines (Blake Bortles and Jay Cutler). Neither defense is getting played even one iota for their actual prowess; total matchup plays. The same can be said for the Colts. They have the worst defense in football, quite possibly, but Carson Palmer was Jay Cutler before being Jay Cutler was cool (and that guy made a cameo last week in DET). You’ve got to have stones to use the Colts but as of right now I do have them in some of my lineups where I needed the extra few hundred dollars in cap space. The Steelers are on my radar if Sam Bradford is out or limited.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

 

 

 

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The Fake Football DFS Optimizer & Cheat Sheet, Week 14 (UPDATED)

Welcome to our 2017 DFS Lineup Optimizer and Cheat Sheet!   To learn more about what our Cheat Sheet and Optimizer offer, please check it out HERE.   *** Here is the link to the Optimizer***   Projections are updated throughout the day. When you refresh the page, it will alert you to update the ...

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The Hail Mary (NFL HuLo GPP Plays): Week 14 WEEKEND UPDATE

Join one of our FREE 2017 Reader Leagues! and win prizes!   The Huddle – Opening Statement   Welcome to the Hail Mary for Week 14.  For those of you who read this article last year or any of my stuff on The Fake Hockey and The Fake Baseball you’re going to find this article very ...

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