The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 6 FIRST LOOK October 11, 2016  |  Doug Shain


 

The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for NFL Week 6. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

You’re going to find that I will usually have a lot of players listed in my FIRST LOOK article but that will get scaled down for the WEEKEND UPDATE. It’s really hard to know who the public is going to flock to, who the experts are going to tout, and who will be a value this early in the week. Once I get a better read on things I’m able to tighten things up and get a better idea of who belongs in what category for the weekend.

Because of the large number of players on these lists, please understand when I don’t write a blurb about each and every one of them. If you want to know more about a player that I glossed over, or why they are placed into the list I have them in, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17). I respond to everyone who writes to me so you can feel confident that your question will get answered. Enjoy the read for now and make sure to come back this weekend to see who we should be locking into our GPP lineups.

QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Brian Hoyer (CHI) vs JAX Blake Bortles (JAX) @ CHI Tyrod Taylor (BUF) vs SF
Matthew Stafford (DET) vs LA Joe Flacco (BAL) @ NYG Case Keenum (LA) @ DET
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) @ MIA Carson Wentz (PHI) @ WSH Ryan Tannehill (MIA) vs PIT
Tom Brady (NE) vs CIN Kirk Cousins (WSH) vs PHI Andy Dalton (CIN) @ NE
Drew Brees (NO) vs CAR Dak Prescott (DAL) @ GB Eli Manning (NYG) vs BAL
Cam Newton (CAR) @ NO Russell Wilson (SEA) vs ATL Alex Smith (KC) @ OAK
Marcus Mariota (TEN) vs CLE Brock Osweiler (HOU) vs IND
Derek Carr (OAK) vs KC
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs DAL
Andrew Luck (IND) @ HOU

 

– Brian Hoyer: Elite QB.  Jay Cutler isn’t getting his job back, is he?  Hoyer has been excellent during his time as Bears QB, leading the NFL in passing yards the last three weeks. A home game against the Jags isn’t going to stop that level of production. He’ll be highly owned but I’ll still be on him because of his price. Other potentially high owned QB’s I’ll be looking heavily at are Marcus Mariota (anyone vs CLE is in play) and Drew Brees (always use the Saints at home). Can you imagine the upside that Mariota would bring if he were actually allowed to run a little bit? Look at what he did last week to see what could be.  Big Ben and Tom Brady should both have another strong week but I don’t want to deal with their high ownership percentages (most likely).

– Lost in all the Bears offensive hoopla is the fact that their defense is terrible. This Bears/Jags matchup could have some fireworks and I’m all over Bortles this week. I actually would use him over Hoyer, who you know I like a lot. Carson Wentz looks amazing and I’m more than happy to use him against a rough WSH secondary. Dak is an interesting case because he’s going to be touted quite a bit (he could end up on the Public list for the weekend update) but I just don’t love the idea of him going into Lambeau. I’m probably in fade mode for a GPP. Russell Wilson, with a weak of rest, could be very yummy against the Falcons. I’m probably going to be on him quite a bit this weekend.

– THIS is the week that I’m going to use the Giants in a GPP. Last week they were a very popular play and they were really bad. This week I can’t see anyone using them as they are going up against one of the better pass defenses in the league. Everything is pointing down for the G-men this weekend; that’s the time I like to strike. Two weeks ago it was PIT, last week it was DET, this week it could very well be the Giants. You will definitely see an Eli/OBJ stack out of me somewhere (this all changes if the Thursday numbers come out and Eli is 15% owned). If Eli isn’t the bounce back QB this week then maybe it’s Brock Osweiler. He’s not a very good QB but his offense is loaded and the Colts defense is bad. A HOU stack will be in my rotation for sure this week. Alex Smith gets to face one of the worst pass defenses in the league is a better QB than you think, while Tyrod Taylor is facing a 49ers team that is giving up a crazy amount of rushing yards (it’s not just Shady that can pile those up for the Bills).

 

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
LeSean McCoy (BUF) vs SF Carlos Hyde (SF) @ BUF Todd Gurley (LA) @ DET
Jordan Howard (CHI) vs JAX James White (NE) vs CIN Gio Bernard (CIN) @ NE
Theo Riddick (DET) vs LA Terrance West (BAL) @ NYG LeGarrette Blount (NE) vs CIN
LeVeon Bell (PIT) @ MIA Christine Michael (SEA) vs ATL Mark Ingram (NO) vs CAR
Darren Sproles (PHI) @ WSH Lamar Miller (HOU) vs IND Ryan Mathews (PHI) @ WSH
DeMarco Murray (TEN) vs CLE Isaiah Crowell (CLE) @ TEN
James Starks (GB) vs DAL Jamaal Charles (KC) @ OAK
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) @ GB Devonta Freeman (ATL) @ SEA
Tevin Coleman (ATL) @ SEA

 

– The 49ers have been giving up a ton of rushing yards the last few weeks and that means Shady should be in line for a big game. McCoy has looked awesome the last few weeks and even if he’s highly owned, he’ll be on many of my teams. I will also be using a lot of Jordan Howard (he’s too versatile not to use), Lev Bell (worth the money in a great matchup), DeMarco Murray (a stud getting to play CLE), and Big Zeke (a top 3 fantasy RB and totally matchup proof). I have found that over the last few weeks I’ve been much more successful using chalky RB and HuLo WR. I’ll continue that trend this week for sure.

– I think SEA rolls over the Falcons this week and Michael is a big reason why. He looks great and will be highly involved in their game plan. I’m not worried at all about CJ Spiller. Lamar Miler is getting the touches but not the scores. This will keep him off radars. Good for us because he’s got an incredible matchup against a Colts defense that doesn’t stop RB. He’s near the top of my RB plays for Week 6.

– There’s little love out there for Todd Gurley but he’s not been the bust people would like you to think he is. I’m still happy to use him if he fits into my lineup. I can totally see NE going ground and pound against the Bengals since it worked so well for the Cowboys. I expect to see a much larger workload for Blount this weekend. As much as I like SEA in Week 6, that doesn’t mean I don’t like Freeman. Coleman is the shiny new toy but Freeman just keeps producing. He’s a guy you can use that’s underpriced and underappreciated.

 

 

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Cameron Meredith (CHI) @ JAX Marvin Jones (DET) vs LA Alshon Jeffery (CHI) @ JAX
Allen Robinson (JAX) vs CHI Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs PIT Golden Tate (DET) vs LA
Antonio Brown (PIT) @ MIA Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) @ NO Tavon Austin (LA) @ DET
Sammie Coates (PIT) @ MIA Brian Quick (LA) @ DET DeVante Parker (MIA) vs PIT
Brandon Cooks (NO) vs CAR DeSean Jackson (WSH) vs PHI AJ Green (CIN) @ NE
Jordan Matthews (PHI) @ WSH Rishard Matthews (TEN) vs CLE Brandon LaFell (CIN) @ NE
Amari Cooper (OAK) vs KC Jeremy Maclin (KC) @ OAK Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) vs BAL
Michael Crabtree (OAK) vs KC Cole Beasley (DAL) @ GB Davante Adams (GB) vs DAL
Jordy Nelson (GB) vs DAL Doug Baldwin (SEA) vs ATL Julio Jones (ATL) @ SEA
Randall Cobb (GB) vs DAL Will Fuller (HOU) vs IND Jalen Strong (HOU) vs IND
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs IND
TY Hilton (IND) @ HOU

 

– Is Cam Meredith an actual thing now? He looked so good in Week 5 but we’ve seen guys like this come and go so often (Kevin Ogletree, anyone?). If I’m using a Bears WR, it’s going to be Alshon this week. I’ll take the guy with the history at a much lower ownership. Bortles/ARob is going to be one of my favorite stacks this weekend. The Bears offense has been great but let’s not forget that Luck/Hilton torched them. The JAX duo isn’t quite to that level but they’re really not all that far off either. I know that TEN just blitzed the Dolphins but I think this is more a LeVeon Bell week for the Steelers. I’ll probably pass on the high ownership their passing game is going to bring. I love OAK and will continue to use their WR even if I’m not using Carr. DeAndre Hopkins could be in a for a huge week against a bad Colts secondary, though if you want to get Cam Meredith levels of sneaky then look at Jalen Strong (5 rec in Week 5).

– OAK has one of the worst pass defenses in the league. I love Travis Kelce at TE but that won’t stop me from loving Jeremy Maclin equally as much at WR. KC is coming into this game well rested and OAK was just in another shootout. Maclin’s downfield limitations cap his upside, but I can see a game of 8-100-2 for sure. If Rishard Matthews has firmly established himself as a go-to guy for Mariota, then he can be an inexpensive upside play against the hapless Browns secondary. Does DJax still hold a grudge against PHI? If you believe in that kind of thing then he could be in line for a big game.

– The Lions defense is going to give up points and the Rams keep making an effort to get Tavon Austin touches. He’s going to have a nice game this week. Davante Adams looks better every week and DAL just doesn’t do it for me. I’m going to be all over a NYG stack this weekend because I think this is the week OBJ breaks out. AJ Green garbage time? It’s a definite possibility against a beatable NE secondary. For the 3rd week in a row we should be able to get Julio at less than 10% ownership (maybe less than 5%). I’ll always take a shot in that case.

 

 

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Rob Gronkowski (NE) vs CIN Zach Miller (CHI) vs JAX Lance Kendricks (LA) @ DET
Martellus Bennett (NE) vs CIN Tyler Eifert (CIN) @ NE Coby Fleener (NO) vs CAR
Greg Olsen (CAR) @ NO Travis Kelce (KC) @ OAK Jesse James (PIT) @ MIA
Jordan Reed (WSH) vs PHI Jason Witten (DAL) @ GB
Delanie Walker (TEN) vs CLE Dwayne Allen (IND) @ HOU
Jimmy Graham (SEA) vs ATL

 

– Finally, I can talk about Gronk! He looked really good in Week 5 with Tom Brady back in the fold and it won’t be long before those Bennett TD’s come Gronk’s way. On the other hand, Bennett is an excellent receiving TE and should still be in consideration for your team. I like both guys this week. The other guy I’m looking hard at is Jimmy Graham. He’s finally healthy and we’ve seen what he can do when healthy. ATL does not have a strong defense and it wouldn’t shock me if Wilson looked Graham’s way a lot on Sunday. He’s in the discussion for my top TE play of the week.  If Derek Andesron starts against for CAR I like Olsen more than if Cam gets the start. Delanie Walker is facing the team that just gave up 3 TD to Martellus Bennett.

– Gimme all that Kelce against the Raiders. OAK can’t stop anyone via the pass and who else does Alex Smith have to throw to past Maclin and Kelce. I could see a scenario where Kelce is the top scoring TE this weekend. As of this writing he’s my top play at the position. I expect a nice bounce back game for Zach Miller against the Jags. I’m just waiting to unleash Tyler Eifert and I think this is the week it happens.

– DET is the worst team in the league against the TE. Lance Kendricks is incredibly cheap. He’s a great guy to look at if you’re going to punt the position. Lost in the shuffle with all the weapons in PIT is Jesse James. All the guys does is produce (a TD or 5 receptions in all but on game this year).

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Buffalo Bills vs SF Pittsburgh Steelers @ MIA Detroit Lions vs LA
Seattle Seahawks vs ATL New England Patriots vs CIN
Tennessee Titans vs CLE New York Giants vs BAL
Houston Texans vs IND

 

 

– Defense is kind of gross this week, but at least we have the Bills taking on the 49ers going for us. Buffalo has been playing great defense lately and now they get one of the worst offenses coming East for an early game. This is a very chalky play but it’s ok to use chalk, don’t forget about that. Anyone playing the Browns should be widely owned and I expect that’s what we will see with the Titans. I like the matchup and will probably have them on some teams.

– There are a lot of people that are way down on Ryan Tannehill (for good reason). This should inflate the number of experts that are using the Steelers. I don’t trust them and they are a fade for me.

– How bad did the Bengals look on Sunday? They should be a little better with Tyler Eifert back but I still think NE can handle them this weekend. There could be some garbage time points for CIN but NE will get theirs as well. I’m not sold on the Ravens at all and the Giants should be slowly getting healthy for this one. I can see NYG surprising a lot of people with a big game in Week 6. I’ll take anyone against the Colts for the sack potential alone.

Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets (of which I have a part in writing). You’ll find a ton of analysis, data, and sample lineups. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

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