The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 5 FIRST LOOK October 4, 2016  |  Doug Shain


The Huddle – Opening Statement

Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for NFL Week 5. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.

You’re going to find that I will usually have a lot of players listed in my FIRST LOOK article but that will get scaled down for the WEEKEND UPDATE. It’s really hard to know who the public is going to flock to, who the experts are going to tout, and who will be a value this early in the week. Once I get a better read on things I’m able to tighten things up and get a better idea of who belongs in what category for the weekend.

Because of the large number of players on these lists, please understand when I don’t write a blurb about each and every one of them. If you want to know more about a player that I glossed over, or why they are placed into the list I have them in, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17). I respond to everyone who writes to me so you can feel confident that your question will get answered. Enjoy the read for now and make sure to come back this weekend to see who we should be locking into our GPP lineups.

QB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Tom Brady (NE) @ CLE Kirk Cousins (WSH) @ BAL Matthew Stafford (DET) vs PHI
Brian Hoyer (CHI) @ IND Carson Wentz (PHI) @ DET Marcus Mariota (TEN) @ MIA
Andrew Luck (IND) vs CHI Ryan Tannehill (MIA) vs TEN Paxton Lynch (DEN) vs ATL
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs NYJ Andy Dalton (CIN) @ DAL Case Keenum (LA) vs BUF
Matt Ryan (ATL) @ DEN Eli Manning (NYG) @ GB
Dak Prescott (DAL) vs CIN Jameis Winston (TB) @ CAR
Philip Rivers (SD) @ OAK Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) @ PIT
Derek Carr (OAK) vs SD
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs NYG

 

– As I was prepping this article I noticed that there are a lot of QB’s that I could see being highly owned this week. Clearly not all of these guys will end up being chalky, but I just can’t narrow down who the public won’t play. Brady is the most obvious chalk play of the season, and there’s no way I’m touching him in a GPP (though I’m all over him in cash). After his big game in Week 4 I don’t think people are going to shy away from Big Ben again either. SD/OAK should be a shootout so those guys will be really highly owned as well. Dallas is a public team, Luck puts up numbers, Ryan has been hot, and Hoyer is cheap and has a good matchup. Narrowing it all down, it could very well be Aaron Rodgers that is the QB from the Public list that ends up being this week’s Roethlisberger.  I’ll be monitoring that closely for the weekend update.  Of the major chalk plays, the ones I like the best for a GPP are Carr and Hoyer (I prefer Hoyer on a smaller site since I think a lot of pros are going to be on him given the great matchup).

– Andy Dalton has been quietly having a really strong season. With all the big names having decent matchups I could actually see him going very underowned this weekend. If that’s the case, I’ll be scooping him up everywhere. Dallas does not have a great pass defense and Dalton has a difference maker in A.J. Green. With the return of Tyler Eifert pending, this CIN offense could break out in a big way in Week 5.  I love that I might be able to get Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz at an ownership discount this weekend. They both have really good games in front of them, but I can’t see the majority of DFS players looking at them over any of the bigger names. Give me Cousins all day against the fraudulent 3-1 Ravens.

– If Aaron Rodgers is this week’s Big Ben in respect to his late Sunday explosion, then Stafford might be Big Ben in the respect of a stud that will bounce back in a rough matchup. The Lions looked awful against Chicago and I can definitely see people shying away from them against a solid Eagles defense. I’m going to run towards DET based on Stafford’s full year of excellence, not run away from one bad game. They’re going to get Theo Riddick more involved in the passing game and maybe a benching was just what Golden Tate needed to get his head out of his posterior. I’ll be on Stafford this week for sure. Paxton Lynch looked good in relief of Siemian and is interesting, but I can see me having to move him to the Public list by Friday, in which case I won’t be as interested. Don’t sleep on Eli Manning against a GB team that’s given up big QB days to every team they’ve faced this year.

 

RB

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Terrance West (BAL) vs WSH LeGarrette Blount (NE) @ CLE Matt Jones (WSH) @ BAL
Jordan Howard (CHI) @ IND LeSean McCoy (BUF) @ LA Isaiah Crowell (CLE) vs NE
DeMarco Murray (TEN) @ MIA Melvin Gordon (SD) @ OAK Bilal Powell (NYJ) @ PIT
Le’Veon Bell (PIT) vs NYJ Eddie Lacy (GB) vs NYG Devonta Freeman (ATL) @ DEN
C.J. Anderson (DEN) vs ATL Theo Riddick (DET) vs PHI Todd Gurley (LA) vs BUF
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs CIN

 

– Terrance West is going to be the shiny new toy the public gravitates to this weekend. I’m not sold on him. If I’m going to go for a cheaper RB I’ll take my chances with Isaiah Crowell or Matt Jones. I love Jordan Howard this weekend, but so will a lot of people. He played well in Week 4, and he’s got a plum matchup against a terrible Colts D. I’m sold on DeMarco Murray; he’s a stud. Le’Veon Bell, by way of his reception upside, has a very high floor and will be my high end RB of choice if I have the cap space.

– I’d be shocked if Theo Riddick wasn’t a focal point of the Lions offense this week. It would not shock me to see him get 12 targets and 10+ carries. Melvin Gordon keeps falling into the end zone from the 1 yard line so I’m going to keep playing him.  At some point NE has to stop throwing and just run, right? Big 4th quarter coming from Blount.

– Did you know that Bilal Powell outsnapped Matt Forte last weekend? I think the Jets realize they went too hard with Forte early on and it’s time to limit his workload. The Steelers should get up big in this game and that means it’ll be Powell in for all those passing downs. He could be a very sneaky cheap play if you want to load up elsewhere on your team. I will keep putting Todd Gurley onto the HuLo list every week that he’s low-owned. He’s a special RB, and, with the Rams playing as well as they are, they are going to have to lean on the run game at some point to continue their momentum. I continue to believe in Devonta Freeman and he keeps producing. I don’t care how often Coleman spells him; that’s only keeping him fresher.

 

 

WR

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Julian Edelman (NE) @ CLE Steve Smith Sr (BAL) vs WSH Jamison Crowder (WSH) @ BAL
Terrelle Pryor (CLE) vs NE Jordan Matthews (PHI) @ DET Marvin Jones (DET) vs PHI
Alshon Jeffery (CHI) @ IND Will Fuller (HOU) @ MIN Kevin White (CHI) @ IND
T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs CHI Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) vs ATL DeVante Parker (MIA) vs TEN
Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs TEN Cole Beasley (DAL) vs CIN Brandon Marshall (NYJ) @ PIT
Antonio Brown (PIT) vs NYJ Tyrell Williams (SD) @ OAK Demaryius Thomas (DEN) vs ATL
Julio Jones (ATL) @ DEN Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) vs TB Brice Butler (DAL) @ CIN
A.J. Green (CIN) vs DAL Mike Evans (TB) @ CAR Amari Cooper (OAK) vs SD
Michael Crabtree (OAK) vs SD Sterling Shepard (NYG) @ GB Dontrelle Inman (SD) @ OAK
Travis Benjamin (SD) @ OAK Stefon Diggs (MIN) vs HOU Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) @ GB
Jordy Nelson (GB) vs N Davante Adams (GB) vs NYG DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) @ MIN

 

– There will be one highly owned NE receiver; for right now, I think it’s Edelman. I don’t want any pass catcher on that team outside of maybe Martellus Bennett. Brady loves to spread the ball around too much for my liking. A.J. Green will be really highly owned, but I love the matchup for him so I’ll be on him in a stack with Dalton. I like the passing games this week for OAK and CHI, but I’d rather use Kevin White (stop with the Eddie Royal stuff) Amari Cooper. Both are on the verge of something good. I’ll pass on Julio against the Broncos, but I’ll definitely be using Brown and Jordy, especially in stacks with their QB.

– If you’re playing a slate with the Monday game, try to remember what Julio did to Carolina last week. Then remember that Mike Evans, while not Julio, is really good. I wouldn’t shy away in this matchup. Emmanuel Sanders has been producing like a stud, so you might as well keep rolling him out. It’s not like ATL has a good pass defense. I like the matchup for the Philly passing game in DET. Jordan Matthews and Carson Wentz could be something special for years. I’m down with using him for sure this weekend. There’s no reason not to use Steve Smith at this point. Flacco loves him, and he looks like his old self. He’s playing with a ton of passion, and I’m going to ride him while he’s still hot. Has Adams passed Cobb on the depth chart for GB? Has he learned how to hold onto the football?  I like him as a flier this weekend.

– WR2 are killing the Ravens this year. That means we can chill out on DeSean Jackson and go back to Jamison Crowder. I don’t know what happened to him last weekend, but he’s got a good matchup and could put up a good game this week. I like how Dallas used Brice Butler against SF, and I want to see how that works out again this week. He’s got a ton of talent. If people are down on DET, I’ll gladly stack Jones and Stafford. Demaryius Thomas looks like a whole different guy than last year. He produces for DEN no matter who the QB is. I should have seen this coming as he was highly productive with the garbage that was Tim Tebow. Inman gets a lot more snaps for SD than you realize, and OAK has the worst pass D in the league. NO had a bad pass defense and look what he did to them last weekend. If we can get OBJ or Nuk at 5% ownership or less, it’s time to hop on board. They are both due for that big game any time now.

 

TE

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
Jordan Reed (WSH) @ BAL Zach Miller (CHI) @ IND Dennis Pitta (BAL) vs WSH
Rob Gronkowski (NE) @ CLE Tyler Eifert (CIN) @ DAL Martellus Bennett (NE) @ CLE
Dwayne Allen (IND) vs CHI Zach Ertz (PHI) @ DET Delanie Walker (TEN) @ MIA
Hunter Henry (SD) @ OAK Cameron Brate (TB) @ CAR
Greg Olsen (CAR) vs TB Kyle Rudolph (MIN) vs HOU

 

– Gronk is back! I know he was back 2 weeks ago, but without Brady he hasn’t really been back. He should be the most widely owned TE this week with the Pats playing CLE. I’m actually still in fade mode until I see him have a few games where he actually runs pass routes (he stayed in to block on almost 70% of NE’s plays last week). I actually will be using a lot more Martellus Bennett to get the same matchup benefits without all the risk (yes, Bennett has his own risk, but it’s at a much smaller cost). Even if Antonio Gates comes back this weekend, I don’t see why Hunter Henry won’t get some run. He looks great. I like Greg Olsen more if Cam Newton ends up sitting.

– If Tyler Eifert and Zach Ertz return this week they are both top end plays for me. They both have excellent matchups and should see a low ownership with their injury concerns. I prefer Ertz because of how poor DET has been against the TE position this year. As long as Zach Miller keeps getting an abundance of targets I’ll keep using him at his low price.

– The Titans’ passing game looks terrible, but I’m not sold on Miami being a decent team. At some point Mariota is going to start playing better, and, when he does, it’ll be Delanie Walker that benefits the most. Washington gave up a pretty nice game to Gary Barnidge in Week 4 as he was one TD away from being a top play at the position. Dennis Pitta is more talented than Barnidge and Flacco will look for him in the end zone. Kyle Rudolph continues to impress me with his target share. He’s a rich man’s Zach Miller.

DEF

Public Plays Expert Plays HuLo Plays
New England Patriots @ CLE Denver Broncos vs ATL Philadelphia Eagles @ DET
Minnesota Vikings vs HOU Buffalo Bills @ LA Chicago Bears @ IND
Pittsburgh Steelers vs NYJ Cincinnati Bengals @ DAL Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ CAR
Los Angeles Rams vs BUF Carolina Panthers vs TB

 

 

– It feels like very week we are going to find that the team playing the Browns is the chalk defense. I don’t love how NE looked last weekend, but that was an anomaly. NE is going to be amped up for this one, and I can see a shutout being a legitimate possibility. MIN has one of the best defenses in the league, and the last time HOU went on the road they got walloped. I don’t know if that is how things are going to go or not, but I’m willing to give it a shot this weekend. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick can have somewhat of a bounce back game in Week 5, but those INTs are looming and PIT plays very well at home.

– I don’t care how good Matt Ryan looks, the Broncos are really tough at home. I never have an issue with using them. I also think this could be the week we see Dak look like a rookie. The Bengals have one of the most underrated defenses in football, and I can see them being very underowned against a public team like the Cowboys.

– If Cam Newton isn’t cleared to play on Monday night then the Bucs could be a menace for Derek Anderson and company. I’ll take Philly against just about anyone. They are so fast on defense and their return game is on point. The Colts just played in London and don’t have a bye. That’s insane. Andrew Luck has been very turnover prone, so I’ll look at anyone playing them. Add in the London issue and the Bears are a very sneaky GPP play.

Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets (of which I have a part in writing). You’ll find a ton of analysis, data, and sample lineups. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.

Your feedback is always welcome.  You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments.  I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.

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