The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 12 WEEKEND UPDATE
November 26, 2016 | Doug Shain
The Huddle – Opening Statement
Welcome to the Hail Mary WEEKEND UPDATE where I look at our GPP plays for NFL Week 12. You can check out my First Look article to see what I was thinking on Tuesday night, but this is my most up to date thoughts on the weekend slate. This week we have no Thursday data to go with so we are kind of flying blind from that perspective. What we do have is a week’s worth of conversation and tweets to help steer us towards winning the ownership game. That said, there are going to be very few changes from Tuesday’s article to today’s article.
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Tom Brady (NE) @ NYJ||Matt Ryan (ATL) vs ARI||Josh McCown (CLE) vs NYG|
|Marcus Mariota (TEN) @ CHI||Tyrod Taylor (BUF) vs JAX||Colin Kaepernick (SF) @ MIA|
|Eli Manning (NYG) @ CLE||Ryan Tannehill (MIA) vs SF||Blake Bortles (JAX) @ BUF|
|Derek Carr (OAK) vs CAR||Carson Wentz (PHI) vs GB||Carson Palmer (ARI) @ ATL|
|Russell Wilson (SEA) @ TB||Cam Newton (CAR) @ OAK||Aaron Rodgers (GB) @ PHI|
|Drew Brees (NO) vs LA|
– I’m fairly confident that Marcus Mariota is going to end up being the chalk at QB this weekend. He’s been playing so well, and the Bears are so bad, that it’s going to be hard for the public to get away from him. I think he’s a fine play and he’ll be in the rotation for me, but at this point he’s no longer a value from either a salary cap or ownership standpoint. If I’m only running out one lineup, there’s no way it’ll include Mariota. I also can see Eli being very popular this weekend against the Browns. I know it’s unpopular to say, but the Browns haven’t been getting crushed as much as people would think they are. I’d much rather play Rashad Jennings over the Giants’ passing game this weekend. Derek Carr put up a big game on Monday night to help push him towards public status. Carolina is pretty weak in the secondary, and I do love the idea of using a Carr/Cooper stack. One of my favorite QB plays this weekend is Russell Wilson. He’s playing great, he’s got a ton of weapons, and he’s got a very easy matchup in TB. I’ll be fading Tom Brady this weekend. Something doesn’t sit right about this matchup.
– My favorite play of the week is Drew Brees. I haven’t heard a lot of people talking about him, but they should. He’s a monster in the dome (360+ yard, 3 TD average in home games this year – two of which were against SEA and DEN). I don’t care who the matchup is against, if Brees is in the dome I want him in my lineup. Tyrod Taylor is growing on me a little bit because of his high floor due to his rushing yards. If he ever was going to bust out with a big game, it’d be at home against Jacksonville. Cam Newton is getting next to no love this weekend, but Oakland, despite their defensive improvements, can be passed on. Carson Wentz gets GB and I’ll look at anyone against GB right now.
– I just don’t see a lot of people interested in Aaron Rodgers right now. There’s a stigma about him that’s just wrong. Something is wrong with him in real life, but in fantasy he’s been awesome. Over his last five games he’s averaged 330 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, and 3 TD. That’s just fine for me. He’s definitely in play in prime time on Monday night. Kaepernick intrigues me because of his feet. If he can get to 50 yards rushing, he should be able to pay off his low price. I never count out Captain Garbage Time, so Bortles makes the list as an interesting contrarian play.
My guys: Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Colin Kaepernick
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|David Johnson (ARI) @ ATL||Jeremy Hill (CIN) @ BAL||Devonta Freeman (ATL) vs ARI|
|DeMarco Murray (TEN) @ CHI||Tevin Coleman (ATL) vs ARI||Matt Forte (NYJ) vs NE|
|Lamar Miller (HOU) vs SD||Rashad Jennings (NYG) @ CLE||Chris Ivory (JAX) @ BUF|
|Jay Ajayi (MIA) vs SF||Tim Hightower (NO) vs LA||Jordan Howard (CHI) vs TEN|
|Thomas Rawls (SEA) @ TB||Spencer Ware (KC) @ DEN||Dion Lewis (NE) @ NYJ|
|Wendell Smallwood (PHI) vs GB||Doug Martin (TB) vs SEA|
|Melvin Gordon (SD) @ HOU||Todd Gurley (LA) @ NO|
– Last week some people slept on David Johnson and he burned them. I don’t think that’s ever going to happen again. Unless people are going extreme value hunting, he should be the most widely owned RB this weekend. Regardless of that, I still think he’s worth a look. Another high priced RB to keep in mind is Jay Ajayi. The Dolphins’ offensive line (vastly underrated) is getting battered, but if Pouncey and Tunsil can make a return on Sunday they’ve got a great matchup against the 49ers. SF has settled down a bit against the run since their pathetic stretch, but that could all change with Mr. 200 Yards running against them. If David Johnson isn’t the most widely owned RB this weekend then it could end up being Thomas Rawls. SEA has a great matchup, Rawls has zero competition for carries, and is relatively inexpensive on most sites (he’s in must-play territory on Yahoo). I’m intrigued by Wendell Smallwood if Ryan Mathews is limited. I’m less intrigued if it’s only Sproles that’s limited. Right now it’s still kind of up in the air as to who will play, but don’t forget that even with Sproles and Mathews available (for most of) the last two weeks, Smallwood has averaged 13 touches a game. Miller and Gordon are facing each other and both teams figure to try to control the clock (SD because it’s hard to pass against HOU and HOU because Osweiler sucks). I’d rather have Miller over Gordon if I had to choose.
– The price on Rashad Jennings came up quite a bit since last weekend, but I still think he can exceed his value. The way to attack CLE is on the ground, not through the air. Jennings should get 17+ touches again this weekend; against the Browns that can mean 100 yards and a TD. Spencer Ware is going to get passed over by a lot of people who don’t realize that the Denver rushing defense is not nearly as good as their passing defense. Tevin Coleman appears to be back to full strength. He could be very interesting as a punt play. I’ve heard his name come out of the mouth of a lot of people “in the know”. The same is true of Doug Martin. All the experts seem to love him. I’d rather have Coleman over Martin. I think Seattle rolls TB.
– I don’t know the extent of the injury to T.J. Yeldon, but if he’s unable to go this weekend then I’d be more than happy to take a long look at Chris Ivory. Out of nowhere Ivory had, and caught, six targets last weekend. Jordan Howard’s usage is incredible, but the numbers aren’t going to show it unless you dig a little bit. The box score is only going to show 1 catch for him, but he was targeted 8 times. He usually sees 4 targets per game to go along with pretty much all the carries for the Bears. TEN has been playing well, but they do give up some points and Howard is pretty much all CHI has right now. I’d take him on his high volume potential alone. Matt Forte is one of the more intriguing RBs on the slate for me this weekend. He’s not a sexy name at all, but he’s put up a ton of good games and always seems to have 80+ yards and a TD. Somehow his move from the Bears to the Jets has made him a reliable goal-line RB. Something tells me that the Jets are going to be competitive in this game; if they are, Forte is going to be a major part of that. His upside is a little limited, but at his price that 80 yards a score is really all you need to hit value. I have a very unhealthy amount of love for Dion Lewis this weekend. The Jets can actually stop the run, so that makes this a Kevin Faulk game with Lewis playing the role of Faulk. He was eased back into game action last weekend but should be good to go this weekend. 5+ catches is not out of the question at all.
My guys: David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Lamar Miller, Jay Ajayi, Dion Lewis, Rashad Jennings, Matt Forte, Tevin Coleman, Spencer Ware
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Julio Jones (ATL) vs ARI||Michael Floyd (ARI) @ ATL||Mohamed Sanu (ATL) vs ARI|
|Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) @ ATL||Tyler Boyd (CIN) @ BAL||DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs SD|
|Steve Smith Jr (BAL) vs CIN||Julian Edelman (NE) @ NYJ||Michael Thomas (NO) vs LA|
|Rishard Matthews (TEN) @ CHI||Jordan Matthews (PHI) vs GB||Ted Ginn Jr (CAR) @ OAK|
|Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) @ CLE||Terrelle Pryor (CLE) vs NYG||Tyler Lockett (SEA) @ TB|
|Tyrell Williams (SD) @ HOU||DeVante Parker (MIA) vs SF||Brandon Marshall (NYJ) vs NE|
|Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs SF||Willie Snead (NO) vs LA||Robby Anderson (NYJ) vs NE|
|Brandin Cooks (NO) vs LA||Mike Evans (TB) vs SEA||Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI) vs GB|
|Doug Baldwin (SEA) @ TB||Tajae Sharpe (TEN) @ CHI|
|Amari Cooper (OAK) vs CAR||Randall Cobb (GB) @ PHI|
|Jordy Nelson (GB) @ PHI|
– There is so much value opening up at WR this week. You’ve got guys like Tyler Boyd, Robby Anderson, Dorial Green-Beckham, Malcolm Mitchell, Ted Ginn, DeVante Parker, Mohamed Sanu, and Tajae Sharpe on the “lesser known names” side and Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins, and Willie Snead on the “bigger names priced cheap” side. You really can open up a lot of possibilities with your lineup if you pinpoint the right value option. Of those players, I prefer to take a look at Boyd, Green-Beckham, Sanu, and Parker. All three have big play potential and reason to like them. Boyd will be the primary beneficiary of the A.J. Green injury, although he does face a tough Ravens defense. DGB has seen games with 8 and 9 targets this year and others with 0 targets, but with the recent struggles of Nelson Agholor I don’t see how the Eagles don’t give him a chance to shine on Monday night. With Philly facing the Swiss Cheese Packers, this is one of the more intriguing options of the week. Sanu is interesting because Peterson is going to be all over Julio and there are definitely targets to be had by the #2 WR (just look at Adam Theilen’s line from Week 11 for an idea of what you can expect from Sanu). DeVante Parker was a high draft pick last year and is slowly starting to assert himself in the Dolphins’ offense. SF proved last weekend that they are bad against all types of offense, not just rushing attacks. I can definitely see Parker getting deep for a big TD this weekend.
– I’m really not feeling any of the high-priced WR this weekend. Julio is going to get shadowed by Patrick Peterson, OBJ by Joe Haden, and Jordy is just too inconsistent for me (I prefer to use Rodgers, but none of his WRs at this point). The most expensive WRs that I’ll be looking at this week will probably be Doug Baldwin and Amari Cooper. I love how Seattle is using Baldwin, and his price is nowhere near the other elite WRs. He’s one of the most underrated players in all of fantasy. Cooper looked great on Monday night and this week’s matchup is very underrated for him. I can see him and Carr exploding during the last 6 weeks of the year. I just don’t see myself spending up at WR this weekend outside of those two guys.
– Terrelle Pryor needs to find the end zone a little bit more to be truly appreciated. He’s a target machine who I like even more if Josh McCown is playing QB for the Browns. I don’t trust the Giants’ D all that much to keep Pryor down. He’s a good bet for nearly 100 yards once again this weekend. If Drew Brees is going to have a big game, I bet Willie Snead is going to be active in the slot for the Saints. I’d rather use Sterling Shepard against the Cleve and save some money rather than pay up for OBJ and get another pedestrian game. Rishard Matthews is developing a great rapport with Mariota, and, although he failed to score in Week 11, he did get over 100 yards and has a nose for the end zone.
– GIVE ME ALL THE VALUE THIS WEEKEND! This is right where all the yumminess lies for Week 12. I’m all over guys like DGB, Sanu, and even Robby Anderson (6 targets each of the last 3 weeks for min price). Seattle is great but they can get burned by the pass and that means Mike Evans is a ultra-contrarian play if you’re going to want to stack him and Winston. I’m not totally sold on Malcolm Mitchell yet, but he did get 5 targets last weekend and the Jets give up a ton of big plays to WRs. He’s an interesting min-price lottery ticket.
My guys: Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper, Dorial Green-Beckham, Tajae Sharpe, Tyler Boyd, Michael Thomas, Willie Snead, DeVante Parker, Mohamed Sanu
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Delanie Walker (TEN) @ CHI||Tyler Eifert (CIN) @ Bal||Gary Barnidge (CLE) vs NYG|
|Antonio Gates (SD) @ HOU||Lance Kendricks (LA) @ NO||C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) vs SD|
|Jimmy Graham (SEA) @ TB||Cameron Brate (TB) vs SEA||Vance McDonald (SF) @ MIA|
|Greg Olsen (CAR) @ OAK||Zach Ertz (PHI) vs GB||Clive Walford (OAK) vs CAR|
|Jared Cook (GB) @ PHI|
– On Tuesday I screamed at you to not use Jared Cook. I was wrong. He’s so insanely cheap this weekend that you kind of have to take a long look at him. His upside is as high as just about any other TE on the slate, and it’d be irresponsible to not throw his name out there. I actually am using him on a lot of GPP teams (including my Yahoo Cup) because of his price and potential. Using him opens a vast array of high-end players for you to use elsewhere. As for the higher-end TEs, I’ll never try to talk you out of Walker, Graham, or Olsen.
– With all the injury woes in CIN, people are going to avoid them like the plague. I think this gives you a chance to go in and steal Eifert at a very low ownership. Dalton is a quality QB that has to throw to someone, and Eifert could very well steal half of Gio Bernard’s targets. What are they going to do, throw to Rex Burkhead? Zach Ertz had a long TD taken from him on a chippy penalty. He’s looked great recently, and GB can’t stop anyone. I’m buying heavily.
– I love Vance McDonald this weekend. He’s my TE (as of now) for the Yahoo Cup. He’s had 6 targets in each of the last four weeks, and Kaepernick seems to trust him. A matchup in Miami doesn’t scare me at all and, for his price, I’d love another 6 targets. C.J. Fiedorowicz is clearly the most reliable target for Brock Osweiler, and SD is pretty bad on the back end. I’ll be more than happy to use him as a value play every chance I get.
My guys: Jared Cook, Vance McDonald, Tyler Eifert, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Zach Ertz
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Baltimore Ravens vs CIN||New York Giants @ CLE||Houston Texans vs SD|
|Tennessee Titans @ CHI||New England Patriots @ NYJ||New Orleans Saints vs LA|
|Seattle Seahawks @ TB||Kansas City Chiefs @ DEN||Oakland Raiders vs CAR|
|Denver Broncos vs KC||Miami Dolphins vs SF|
– I keep hearing about how the Ravens are the top defense in the league. They aren’t, but if I’m hearing it so are a lot of other people. Yes, I guess that by yardage they may have been #1 heading into last weekend, but they are not a fantasy monster by any means. I’ll let them be someone else’s problem with their limited upside. I’d much rather spend down on the Titans against a depleted Bears team or spend up on a defense like DEN or SEA.
– The Giants’ front seven is really good, but CLE is plucky and they should be able to score on New York. On the other hand, sacks and turnovers should be there for the taking, so I’m not opposed to using NYG at all. The Dolphins disappointed a bit last weekend, but SF isn’t great and they are coming east for an early game. I’d give the Fins another run if I can fit them into my lineup.
– OAK is better on D than you think. So are the Saints. I’d rather have NO given their matchup but if you can get OAK super cheap then I’d use them if it meant I could upgrade elsewhere. Houston is really hard to pass on, and SD isn’t great on the road. Remember that Rivers threw 4 picks at home in his last game. This is about the time of year where the Chargers start to fall apart.
My guys: Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos
Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments. I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.