The Hail Mary (NFL DFS): Week 12 FIRST LOOK
November 21, 2016 | Doug Shain
The Huddle – Opening Statement
Welcome to the FIRST LOOK at the GPP plays for NFL Week 12. If you want to know more about my article and what it’s all about, please click here.
Because of the large number of players on these lists, please understand when I don’t write a blurb about each and every one of them. If you want to know more about a player that I glossed over, or why they are placed into the list I have them in, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@bankster17). I respond to everyone who writes to me so you can feel confident that your question will get answered. Enjoy the read for now and make sure to come back this weekend to see who we should be locking into our GPP lineups.
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Matt Ryan (ATL) vs ARI||Carson Palmer (ARI) @ ATL||Philip Rivers (SD) @ HOU|
|Marcus Mariota (TEN) @ CHI||Tyrod Taylor (BUF) vs JAX||Colin Kaepernick (SF) @ MIA|
|Eli Manning (NYG) @ CLE||Ryan Tannehill (MIA) vs SF||Jameis Winston (TB) vs SEA|
|Drew Brees (NO) vs LA||Carson Wentz (PHI) vs GB||Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) vs NE|
|Russell Wilson (SEA) @ TB||Aaron Rodgers (GB) @ PHI|
|Cam Newton (CAR) @ OAK|
|Derek Carr (OAK) vs CAR|
|Tom Brady (NE) @ NYJ|
– As you’ll read below, this is a very good week to all in on QB. There is a lot of value at the other positions so you should be able to fit any QB you want on your team. Marcus Mariota has been killing it and has another great matchup in Chicago. The Bears are a mess, and there’s nothing they’ve been doing that will make me believe that they can slow down this awesome Titans offense. Barring any crazy weather, I don’t see how Mariota isn’t one of “my guys” when all is said and done. I also really like the contrarian potential with Drew Brees. I know I have him listed in the public plays section, but there’s a very real possibility he’s underowned because of his matchup. I’m playing him against anyone in the dome, and if I can somehow get him at an ownership discount, I’m going to be all in. Russell Wilson is another guy playing at the top of his game right now, and the Tampa defense doesn’t frighten me at all. Even if Thomas Rawls is somewhat limited in the passing game (compared to C.J. Prosise), I can still see Wilson continuing to look for his big play guys (Baldwin, Lockett, and Graham) and once again approach 300 yards. I’d caution you when you look at Cam, Eli, and Brady. The Raiders’ defense is much improved over the beginning of the season, so that kind of takes Cam out of the equation for me. Cleveland is plucky at home, and you never know when Eli is going to pull one of his 3 INT games. I’d rather use Wilson or Carr at that price point. The Jets don’t have a great passing defense but something doesn’t sit right for me with this game from NE’s standpoint. I’m not saying Brady will be bad, but I’m not feeling a monster game. I’d rather use Mariota or Brees.
– If you’re on a site that has the Monday night game as part of its slate, then I’d strongly consider Carson Wentz. He’s going up against the Packers’ defense, and at this point I’d use anyone against GB. I’d be a little more wary if this game was in Green Bay, but it’s in Philly and Wentz hasn’t had a marquee, breakout game yet. After his WRs let him down time and again in Seattle, I can see them coming up big on Monday night. Tyrod Taylor against the Jaguars is intriguing due to his rushing ability. His upside is limited, but his floor is reasonable if you want a safe play for cheap.
– We’ve been talking about this for weeks, but people seem to think something is wrong with Aaron Rodgers. People are wrong (at least for fantasy purposes). This public misconception is going to pull people off Rodgers and give you a little ownership opening. I can definitely see him being under 10% owned. An angry and desperate Rodgers on a Monday night against a suspect pass defense is exactly the type of play I want to attack. Colin Kaepernick isn’t going to be leading any Super Bowl winning drives any time soon, but he does put up fantasy points and is still priced very nicely. Seattle can be thrown on, and Jameis Winston has been rock solid this year. It’s a risky play but one worth keeping in the back of your mind if you want to go ultra-contrarian.
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|David Johnson (ARI) @ ATL||Terrance West (BAL) vs CIN||Devonta Freeman (ATL) vs ARI|
|DeMarco Murray (TEN) @ CHI||Jordan Howard (CHI) vs TEN||Jeremy Hill (CIN) @ BAL|
|Lamar Miller (HOU) vs SD||Rashad Jennings (NYG) @ CLE||Chris Ivory (JAX) @ BUF|
|Jay Ajayi (MIA) vs SF||Tim Hightower (NO) vs LA||Doug Martin (TB) vs SEA|
|Todd Gurley (LA) @ NO||Jonathan Stewart (CAR) @ OAK||LeSean McCoy (BUF) vs JAX|
|LeGarrette Blount (NE) @ NYJ||Matt Forte (NYJ) vs NE||Spencer Ware (KC) @ DEN|
|Thomas Rawls (SEA) @ TB||Wendell Smallwood (PHI) vs GB|
|Devontae Booker (DEN) vs KC||Dion Lewis (NE) @ NYJ|
|Melvin Gordon (SD) @ HOU|
– Last week some people slept on David Johnson and he burned them. I don’t think that’s ever going to happen again. Unless people are going extreme value hunting, he should be the most widely owned RB this weekend. Regardless of that, I still think he’s worth a look. Another high priced RB to keep in mind is Jay Ajayi. The Dolphins’ offensive line (vastly underrated) is getting battered, but if Pouncey and Tunsil can make a return on Sunday they’ve got a great matchup against the 49ers. SF has settled down a bit against the run since their pathetic stretch, but that could all change with Mr. 200 Yards running against them. If David Johnson isn’t the most widely owned RB this weekend then it could end up being Thomas Rawls. SEA has a great matchup, Rawls has zero competition for carries and is relatively inexpensive on most sites (he’s in must-play territory on Yahoo). I’m also going to have exposure to Gurley (finally ready to break out with a great matchup), Murray, and Lamar Miller (a nice, heavy workload on Monday night). I won’t have any exposure to Blount because I think the NE passes a lot in this game. Instead, this is going to be the game where Dion Lewis reasserts himself into this offense. I love Lewis this week at his low price. He doesn’t need to do much to hit value, and in a PPR I love him even more.
– The price on Rashad Jennings came up quite a bit since last weekend. I hope you played him last weekend when he was a huge value play. I still like him this week, but he’s by no means a value play at all. Jordan Howard, in the same price range, may end up being a better play than Jennings this weekend. Howard’s usage is incredible, but the numbers aren’t going to show it unless you dig a little bit. The box score is only going to show 1 catch for him, but he was targeted 8 times. He usually sees 4 targets per game to go along with pretty much all the carries for the Bears. TEN has been playing well, but they do give up some points and Howard is pretty much all CHI has right now. I’d take him on his high volume potential alone. Matt Forte is one of the more intriguing RBs on the slate for me this weekend. He’s not a sexy name at all, but he’s put up a ton of good games and always seems to have 80+ yards and a TD. Somehow his move from the Bears to the Jets has made him a reliable goal-line RB. Something tells me that the Jets are going to be competitive in this game, and, if they are, Forte is going to be a major part of that. His upside is a little limited, but at his price that 80 yards a score is really all you need to hit value. I’m intrigued by Wendell Smallwood if Ryan Mathews is limited. I’m less intrigued if it’s only Sproles that’s limited. Pay attention to the reports all week before you make a decision on the Eagles’ running game. Terrance West would be interesting if the Ravens would ever commit to 20 carries for him.
– I don’t know the extent of the injury to T.J. Yeldon, but if he’s unable to go this weekend then I’d be more than happy to take a long look at Chris Ivory. Out of nowhere Ivory had, and caught, six targets last weekend. Buffalo isn’t the best of matchups, but at his low price another six targets and 15+ carries is valuable. Spencer Ware is going to get passed over by a lot of people who don’t realize that the Denver rushing defense is not nearly as good as their passing defense.
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Julio Jones (ATL) vs ARI||Michael Floyd (ARI) @ ATL||Mohamed Sanu (ATL) vs ARI|
|Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) @ ATL||Tyler Boyd (CIN) @ BAL||DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs SD|
|Steve Smith Jr (BAL) vs CIN||Rishard Matthews (TEN) @ CHI||Michael Thomas (NO) vs LA|
|Tajae Sharpe (TEN) @ CHI||Sterling Shepard (NYG) @ CLE||Mike Evans (TB) vs SEA|
|Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) @ CLE||Terrelle Pryor (CLE) vs NYG||Tyler Lockett (SEA) @ TB|
|Tyrell Williams (SD) @ HOU||DeVante Parker (MIA) vs SF||Brandon Marshall (NYJ) vs NE|
|Jarvis Landry (MIA) vs SF||Willie Snead (NO) vs LA||Robby Anderson (NYJ) vs NE|
|Brandin Cooks (NO) vs LA||Michael Crabtree (OAK) vs CAR||Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI) vs GB|
|Doug Baldwin (SEA) @ TB||Julian Edelman (NE) @ NYJ||Malcolm Mitchell (NE) @ NYJ|
|Amari Cooper (OAK) vs CAR||Jordan Matthews (PHI) vs GB||Randall Cobb (GB) @ PHI|
|Jordy Nelson (GB) @ PHI||Ted Ginn Jr (CAR) @ OAK|
– There is so much value opening up at WR this week. You’ve got guys like Tyler Boyd, Robby Anderson, Dorial Green-Beckham, Malcolm Mitchell, Ted Ginn, DeVante Parker, Mohamed Sanu, and Tajae Sharpe on the “lesser known names” side and Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins, and Willie Snead on the “bigger names priced cheap” side. You really can open up a lot of possibilities with your lineup if you pinpoint the right value option. Of those players, I prefer to take a look at Boyd, Green-Beckham, Sanu, and Parker. All three have big play potential and reasons to like them. Boyd will be the primary beneficiary of the A.J. Green injury, although he does face a tough Ravens defense. DGB has seen games with 8 and 9 targets this year and others with 0 targets, but with the recent struggles of Nelson Agholor I don’t see how the Eagles don’t give him a chance to shine on Monday night. With Philly facing the Swiss Cheese Packers, this is one of the more intriguing options of the week. Sanu is interesting because Peterson is going to be all over Julio, and there are definitely targets to be had by the #2 WR (just look at Adam Thielen’s line from Week 11 for an idea of what you can expect from Sanu). DeVante Parker was a high draft pick last year and is slowly starting to assert himself in the Dolphins’ offense. SF proved last weekend that they are bad against all types of offense, not just rushing attacks. I can definitely see Parker getting deep for a big TD this weekend.
– I’m really not feeling any of the high priced WRs this weekend. Julio is going to get shadowed by Patrick Peterson, OBJ by Joe Haden, and Jordy is just too inconsistent for me (I prefer to use Rodgers, but none of his WRs at this point). The most expensive WR that I’ll be looking at this week will probably be Doug Baldwin. I love how Seattle is using him, and his price is nowhere near the other elite WRs. He’s one of the most underrated players in all of fantasy. I just don’t see myself spending up at WR this weekend.
– Terrelle Pryor needs to find the end zone a little bit more to be truly appreciated. He’s a target machine, and I like him even more if Josh McCown is playing QB for the Browns. I don’t trust the Giants’ D all that much to keep Pryor down. He’s a good bet for nearly 100 yards once again this weekend. If Drew Brees is going to have a big game, I bet Willie Snead is going to be active in the slot for the Saints. I’d rather use Sterling Shepard against the Cleve and save some money rather than pay up for OBJ and get another pedestrian game. Rishard Matthews is developing a great rapport with Mariota, and, although he failed to score in Week 11, he did get over 100 yards and has a nose for the end zone.
– GIVE ME ALL THE VALUE THIS WEEKEND! This is right where all the yumminess lies for Week 12. I’m all over guys like DGB, Sanu, and even Robby Anderson (6 targets each of the last 3 weeks for min price). Seattle is great but they can get burned by the pass and that means Mike Evans is a ultra-contrarian play if you’re going to want to stack him and Winston. I’m not totally sold on Malcolm Mitchell yet, but he did get 5 targets last weekend and the Jets give up a ton of big plays to WRs. He’s an interesting min-price lottery ticket.
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Delanie Walker (TEN) @ CHI||Tyler Eifert (CIN) @ Bal||Gary Barnidge (CLE) vs NYG|
|Antonio Gates (SD) @ HOU||Lance Kendricks (LA) @ NO||C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) vs SD|
|Jimmy Graham (SEA) @ TB||Cameron Brate (TB) vs SEA||Vance McDonald (SF) @ MIA|
|Greg Olsen (CAR) @ OAK||Zach Ertz (PHI) vs GB||Clive Walford (OAK) vs CAR|
|Jared Cook (GB) @ PHI|
– Do not roster Jared Cook. He’s an illusion, and you saw his one good game this year. He’s going to go back to being invisible this weekend. I’d much rather pay up for Lance Kendricks or Vance McDonald than get burned by Cook. I know that Cook has the most upside of that bunch, but Kendricks and McDonald (6 targets each of the last four weeks) are just safer plays. I suppose if you’re going to use ARod and want to stack him, then Cook is a value play you can pair him with, but geez, we’ve been burned so many times. As for higher end TEs, I’ll never try to talk you out of Walker, Graham, or Olsen.
– With all the injury woes in CIN, people are going to avoid them like the plague. I think this gives you a chance to go in and steal Eifert at a very low ownership. Dalton is a quality QB that has to throw to someone, and Eifert could very well steal half of Gio Bernard’s targets. What are they going to do, throw to Rex Burkhead? Zach Ertz had a long TD taken from him on a chippy penalty. He’s looked great recently and GB can’t stop anyone. I’m buying heavily.
– I love Vance McDonald this weekend. He’s my TE (as of now) for the Yahoo Cup. He’s had 6 targets in each of the last four weeks and Kaepernick seems to trust him. A matchup in Miami doesn’t scare me at all. For his price, I’d love another 6 targets. C.J. Fiedorowicz is clearly the most reliable target for Brock Osweiler, and SD is pretty bad on the back end. I’ll be more than happy to use him as a value play every chance I get.
|Public Plays||Expert Plays||HuLo Plays|
|Baltimore Ravens vs CIN||New York Giants @ CLE||Houston Texans vs SD|
|Tennessee Titans @ CHI||New England Patriots @ NYJ||New Orleans Saints vs LA|
|Seattle Seahawks @ TB||Kansas City Chiefs @ DEN||Oakland Raiders vs CAR|
|Denver Broncos vs KC||Miami Dolphins vs SF|
– I keep hearing about how the Ravens are the top defense in the league. They aren’t, but if I’m hearing it so are a lot of other people. Yes, I guess that by yardage they may have been #1 heading into last weekend, but they are not a fantasy monster by any means. I’ll let them be someone else’s problem with their limited upside. I’d much rather spend down on the Titans against a depleted Bears team or spend up on a defense like DEN or SEA.
– The Giants’ front seven is really good, but CLE is plucky and they should be able to score on New York. On the other hand, sacks and turnovers should be there for the taking, so I’m not opposed to using NYG at all. The Dolphins disappointed a bit last weekend, but SF isn’t great and they are coming east for an early game. I’d give the Fins another run if I could fit them into my lineup.
– OAK is better on D than you think. So are the Saints. I’d rather have NO given their matchup, but if you can get OAK super cheap then I’d use them if it meant I could upgrade elsewhere. Houston is really hard to pass on, and SD isn’t great on the road. Remember in his last game that Rivers threw 4 picks at home. This is about the time of year where the Chargers start to fall apart.
Best of luck this week! I hope you all kick some butt and make a ton of money. Make sure to check out all the great content at The Fake Football including the Cheat Sheets.You’ll find a ton of analysis, and data. It’s well worth the cost of subscription.
Your feedback is always welcome. You can find me on Twitter @bankster17. I’m around all the time for questions, advice, and comments. I answer every single person that sends me a Tweet.