Experts Mock Draft: First Round
July 1, 2013 | Chet
Good afternoon/evening/late morning/noonish . . . uh, hi. I am going to take you along as I draft in a Draftmaster’s draft at MFL with some other fake football nerds/cool guys. I call it a mock because it works as one, but all Draftmaster’s are played out without the draftees involvement. Mr. Jim Day organizes them and he’s up to about 1.2 billion at this point. If you want to get in on one you should tweet him –> @FantasyTaz.
The league settings are 4 points per TD pass, .5 PPR — 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D, 1 K, 6 bench players.
1. @FantasyTaz — Adrian Peterson — All Day is pretty much the default number one pick at this point. The chances for a running back to have back to back #1 running back fantasy seasons are pretty slim, but no matter how hard I try I can’t come up with any good reasons to put anyone ahead of him.
Eric_Edholm — Arian Foster — There are plenty of reasons to like Foster and plenty to dislike him. His usage around the goal line and membership to a run first team are the good and his overuse and declining yards per carry are the bad. I have him as my 5th overall running back, so I think this is early, but it’s not like I wouldn’t have drafted him just a few spots down the line.
3. @LateRoundQB — Doug Martin — The Muscle Hamster is my third ranked back, so he went right where I told him to go. He is the motor for that Bucs offense and excels in both the run and pass game. And with the Bucs getting better on the defensive side of the ball this off season, he also may get to see more rushing attempts since they won’t be losing by such a wide margin.
4. @davidgonos — Ray Rice — I’m a big fan of Rice’s and I am not as down on him as some, but I also feel like his ceiling has been lowered with Bernard Pierce taking a step forward late last season and Vonta Leach leaving, I see Rice a little closer to the end of the first round this year. But like many first round picks we have to start splittling hairs to rank them.
5. @LordReebs — Jamaal Charles — JC Superstar is my number two running back this season, so I would have been super duper happy to grab him at number five. Andy Reid has his faults, but not giving good running backs the ball is not one of them. Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy were both used well under Reid’s tutelage and Charles is just as good or better than both. He has never been given the ball in the passing game as much as he should have and that will change this year. Think about trying to tackle Charles when he is in space. That is going to be a difficult task.
6. @AlexMiglio — LeSean McCoy — McCoy is a high risk pick at this point in the draft, but I’ve actually got him as my fourth ranked running back, so I am very much all in on the risk. New coach Chip Kelly loves to run the ball. The numbers at Oregon are staggering. The Ducks had 685 rushing attempts to 373 passing attempts and their reception leader, with 45, was a running back! Add that to the pace at which his team plays and there should be plenty of attempts to go around. But of course, he could totally bomb.
7. @FantasyDouche — Trent Richardson — I can’t seem to wrap my head around how I feel about TRich. Well, I know that I love his new offense with Norval Turner running that side of the ball (where he should be). Annoyingly Richardson keeps tweaking things and it’s just, uh, annoying. Does it mean he’ll miss 10 games this year? Of course not. He played through broken ribs last season and even though it hindered his numbers, he still got into the end zone enough to be a fantasy asset. He should see an increase in receptions and more goal line looks with a better offensive game plan. He is currently my seventh ranked player this season, so I’m on board.
8. @SchaufDS — Calvin Johnson — What is this? Who allowed a wide receiver in the draft?! Well, Matt Schauf, that’s who! A few weeks ago I probably would have been completely against this because of my running back fetish (i.e. more depth at WR so I want RBs early) but I’m starting to get on the elite wide receiver train in leagues that start three receivers and have a possible flex receiver like this one. Megatron is about as sure a thing as things get and that’s hard to pass up.
9. @KyleWachtel — C.J. Spiller — I’ve moved Spiller up and down my top 10 over the last couple months, but he’s firmly(ish) implanted as my number six running back now. The quarterback situation is scary in Buffalo, but there is no way Spiller won’t get his touches this year. Last year he averaged 15 touches a game and still managed to be the sixth or seventh best fantasy back depending on your scoring. He doesn’t need 25 touches a game to be a top back and that just makes his upside scary high.
10. @RotoPat — Marshawn Lynch — This is a great value for Lynch. Maybe people were scared off by the .5 PPR, but that doesn’t hurt him that much and his consistency from week to week makes up for it in head to head leagues. Of course they also might have been scared of the possible suspension for his DUI, which is much scarier than PPR (even though PPR is darn scary). There really is no way to know how his case is going to go and therefore early drafters are going to have a hard time guessing. If he’s not suspended there’s no reason not to take him earlier than 10th.
11. @Chet_G — Steven Jackson — I might have been able to get Jackson in the second, but this is where I have him ranked and feel his value is. The Falcons offense is Nirvana for Jackson and I believe he will take full advantage. He’ll see triple (or more) goal line looks than he was getting in St. Louis and also more receiving targets. For me he is as safe as it gets this season.
12. @CDCarter13 — Matt Forte — With Marc Trestman at the helm, Mr. Forte could see a bajillion targets this year and that’s what makes him so intriguing. He’s currently my 12th ranked running back, but I’ve been grabbing receivers before I grab him based on his touchdown deficiencies. He’s a bit risky for my unsteady hand, but his upside is great, especially in any PPR format.