Dynasty Draft Profile: Tre McBride
March 3, 2015 | Rich Hribar
*MSYD = % of Team Receiving Yardage
Tre McBride first starting picking up significant steam in draft circles with a strong showing during the week of the East-West Shrine Game and carried that initial momentum through a strong showing at the NFL combine. I’ve been looking forward to this post because McBride is a player who doesn’t have a lot of film that is accessible to the casual analyst. That means I get to put a little extra faith into my wide receiver model.
From a production standpoint, McBride is an example of why measuring the slice of pie a receiver has within his own offense is valuable as opposed to raw totals. Over his final three seasons at William & Mary, the Tribe passing game tallied just 6,180 passing yards total. For comparison sake, that was only 1,350 more yards than NCAA leader Brandon Doughty of Western Kentucky had in 2014 alone. While his three consecutive seasons of 800 yards and change aren’t gaudy on their own, the fact that he carried so much of the passing game on his shoulders is. The average market share yardage for receivers taken within the first four rounds since 1999 is 34 percent, a total that McBride exceeded in each of his final three seasons.
While that is a positive in his corner, I do prefer to see some level of consistent improvement in raw totals as a receiver’s career progresses, especially when that player is playing amongst lesser competition. It’s not a major knock on him from a production stance, but there is still a question to whether or not he may have already plateaued. I’m not really concerned about the varying touchdown totals because his frame suggests he’ll be a player that will have varying spouts of touchdown performance at the next level as well.
At the combine, he turned in a performance that isn’t garnering enough attention. He bested combine averages for receivers 205 plus pounds in every single category in my database and was a top 12 performer in this class in every category except the three cone drill. For those into SPARQ, he was a top five receiver standout at the combine per Zach Whitman. He was the 2013 Special Team’s player of the year in Colonial Athletic Association and averaged 23.1 yards per kickoff return for his career which shows off some of those physical traits in action. From a pure physical profile and final year production comparison, here are his closest matches.
|Pierre Garcon||Mount Union||21.8||73||210||4.42||36.5||125||4.19||6.9||4.8||68.2||1.0|
|DeVier Posey||Ohio State||22.9||74||211||4.39||36.5||123||4.15||7.03||4.1||65.2||0.5|
|Tre McBride||William & Mary||22.1||72||210||4.41||38||122||4.08||6.96||5.8||73.5||0.4|
While it may not be an endearing gallery of comparisons for those that are into player comps, most efficient comps absorb the bitter with the sweet. Besides, comps aren’t intended to be hard law, but display a range of imaginable outcomes based on measurables alone. Posey and Meachem were valued as top 70 selections in their draft classes and while Posey had his career derailed by an Achilles injury, Meachem turned in a top 30 fantasy season in 2009 and Garcon has turned in three himself over the past five seasons.
Let’s get on track to where McBride himself contributes. While his measurable straight line speed doesn’t consistently show up in the samples available, he is smooth with his movements in routes and has an aggressive mindset as a receiver. As mentioned, his scores in the jumping drills were above par for his size and paired with that mindset, you can see him how he can win in vertical contested situations.
One area that was unavailable was seeing how he overcame physical play from defenders. The majority of film on him is zone and off coverage. Rarely was he ever challenged at the line of scrimmage, so there’s not a lot to go in depth on judging his release. He does display some nuance to his game in the small doses I’ve seen while route running and working zone coverage, and paired with his measurable agility marks, I feel confident on the hypothesis that he has a strong possession receiver element to his game.
McBride definitely has a lot of characteristics I look for on a physical and production scale when trying to unearth some potential value in rookie drafts. With the momentum he’s carrying, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds his way into the top 75-100 players selected this spring, which would be huge for future fantasy outlook. If he falls into the fourth round or later, then he’s going to have a longer road and may find himself as a strict special teamer and spot receiver early on. In that scenario, he’s likely going to move down my final rookie board post destination.
I currently have McBride ranked as my 9th receiver in this class for fantasy purposes, ahead of Devin Funchess, Sammie Coates and Devin Smith, all players who have discernible skills in one area that trump McBride’s, but don’t have as full of a resume and are much more volatile options. When factoring the required capital to land those players to the third and even fourth round dynasty rookie draft price tag of McBride, he’s one of my favorite picks in drafts right now as potential WR2 or WR3.
With McBride falling all the way down to the Titans at pick 245 as the 31st receiver selected, his future fantasy prospects face a major uphill battle. Tennessee spent the 40th overall pick on Dorial Green-Beckham to go along with Kendall Wright and free agents Harry Douglas and Hakeem Nicks, and the enigma known as Justin Hunter. That means its likely McBride will have to settle for fighting for the sixth receiver spot. His return ability could provide him an edge and Douglas and Nicks aren’t long term solutions at the position, but owners will have to remain patient on McBride’s opportunity. It’s highly likely at this stage that McBride’s ceiling is becoming the third best option in any passing game and even that has a low probability of successfully happening. A pre-draft favorite, I can’t say I’d endorse McBride before the fourth round and may aim for a higher ceiling at that stage.