Draftster Plays Week 14: Lock and Load Calvin Johnson
December 6, 2014 | adam cook
Do you play NFL DFS? Yes!?! Then be sure to check out The Fake Football Week 14 DFS Cheat Sheet!
I apologize for not being here for all of you last week as the holidays get very time consuming now that I have a significant other. Two families and three Thanksgiving dinners consumes the whole weekend, as well as a Washington Capitals game mixed in. For those who are knocked out of their fantasy football playoffs, Week 14 is the perfect week to give DFS a try. Get your feet wet and try the multiple “free rolls” that Draftster offers on a weekly basis. For those who have been hanging with me all year, let’s get to Week 14’s top plays including Mr. Calvin Johnson himself. Dish a comment and let me know who you are playing on Draftster this week. If you like playing daily fantasy football, go check out www.draftster.com!
Peyton Manning– Denver Broncos- $8500
If you are going to pay up for a quarterback, Peyton is your guy. He is 2nd in FPPG (25.34), yet is only the 4th highest priced QB. The Broncos have been showing a run heavy game plan the last two weeks, but I would expect that to change as the Bills excel against the run. The Broncos will have mismatches everywhere in the passing game and Peyton might be getting his red zone buddy Julius Thomas back. Peyton has been better at home throwing for 21 touchdowns compared to only 15 on the road. You can’t go wrong with Mr. Manning.
Top Value Play
Matthew Stafford– Detroit Lions- $6400
Stafford is by far the best quarterback value in Week 14 at home versus a suspect Buccaneers secondary. Tampa Bay allows 245 PYPG and has given up 22 TD’s in 2014. The Lions are a better team at home with Stafford playing better in particular. Stafford is averaging 298.7 PYPG at home and has thrown for 9 touchdowns compared to only 6 on the road. Calvin Johnson is healthy again and Reggie Bush is returning from injury.
Justin Forsett– Baltimore Ravens- $6800
The Ravens travel to Miami to face the Dolphins in a huge game for AFC playoff positioning, so I would look for Forsett to get the rock early and often. The Dolphins have been shredded on the ground the last two weeks versus Denver and New York and have allowed 4.3 YPC this year. Forsett has received 20 plus carries in 3 straight games and also has produced 100 plus rushing yards over that same time span. He is a solid play as his production should easily surpass his price.
Top Value Play
Jeremy Hill– Cincinnati Bengals- $3700
Jeremy Hill has been out touching and out producing Giovanni Bernard over the last few weeks. Hill has also been a stud at home averaging 4.9 YPC with 5 TD’s in 6 home games. Not to mention that Hill has received 17 plus touches in 3 straight contests. I expect the Bengals to rely on the ground game in an important game versus Pittsburgh and not Andy Dalton’s arm. I think Hill will find the end zone against a vulnerable Steelers defense. He called out his coach after this week, but I look for him to use that as motivation and not a distraction.
Calvin Johnson- Detroit Lions- $7400
If you don’t play Calvin Johnson at this salary, then you don’t like winning money. He returned to vintage “Megatron” mode on Thanksgiving and looked like he was close to 100 percent healthy. Calvin is the highest priced WR on DraftKings for example, but is a mid-tier price on Draftster. He is about as automatic a play against a vulnerable Tampa Bay secondary as they come. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd against opposing WR’s and Megatron looks ready to dominate.
Top Value Play
Jordan Matthews– Philadelphia Eagles- $3900
Why the fast rising Matthews is so low priced confuses me. He has a tough matchup versus the “Legion of Boom”, but he looks to avoid Richard Sherman as he plays a lot out of the slot. Mark Sanchez loves Matthews as Matthews hasn’t had less than 50 yards receiving in any of his starts. Jordan has also produced well at home this year averaging 66 YPG with 4 TD’s. He also has 4 TD’s over the last 4 weeks with Sanchez at the helm.
Top Play and Top Value Play
Rob Gronkowski– New England Patriots- $6300
Gronkowski is a weekly recommendation in this column and if I recommended playing him at $8200, you know I am recommending him at $6300. San Diego has been good against the tight end this year, but Gronk is on another planet when it comes to production. He hasn’t scored the last two weeks, but that just means he is due to return to delivering a “Gronk Spike.” He has a very low floor as he has produced 70 plus receiving yards in 5 straight games! He is a must play at his depleted price tag.
Detroit Lions- $4000
I am completely on the Detroit Lions bandwagon this week. The Lions stud defensive line gets to tee off against a Tampa Bay offensive line that has been struggling all year long. I am fading all Tampa Bay skill position players because of this reason. The Buccaneers offense ranks 28th against opposing defenses and the Lions are an above average defense at that. The Lions only allow 15.7 PPG at home compared to 18.8 on the road. They are easily the No. 1 defensive play this week.
Minnesota Vikings- $3900
The Vikings don’t have 5 wins this year because of their offense, let’s be honest. They have a dream matchup at home versus Geno Smith and the putrid Jets offense. The Jets don’t trust Geno to throw the ball and have become one dimensional. Not to mention that Geno Smith is one of the most turnover prone QB’s in the entire NFL. The Vikings defense as a whole is above average as they have only allowed 342.9 YPG this year. The Vikings and Jets game has the lowest over/under in Week 14 and I am very comfortable taking the home defense in this matchup.