DraftDay Week 8 Picks
October 25, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Check out The Fake Football’s Week 8 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!
The predictable nature of Peyton Manning breaking a record really made all of my 50/50 lineups in which I paired him with Demaryius downright copacetic. My GPP and tournament lineups? Yeah, let’s just ignore those and step right into some guys that will keep us in the profit on Draft Day in Week 8:
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Aaron Rodgers ($16,700)
Juicy matchup for A-Rod come Sunday night against a Saints defense that is dead last in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and sits in 30th place in Pass DVOA. New Orleans has allowed multiple TD passes in each of their last 3 games. Rodgers has been flat out nasty his last FOUR games, striking for at least three TDs in all of them and needing only 17 or 22 pass attempts in two of the contests. Luckily for us fantasy players Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense should keep this game competitive so the Packers won’t think of sitting Rodgers for the last quarter of a blowout win.
Budweiser – Tom Brady ($13,850)
The Chicago defense has been a difficult one to predict so far this year; stifling good QBs and getting eaten up by less than average signal callers. Mr. Brady on the other hand has been dicing up some good defenses the last few weeks, connecting for 9 TDs without turning the ball over. New England isn’t even bothering running the ball while they try to figure out exactly who should be running it, they only attempted 15 rushes last week. The Vegas Line on this game is 50 ½ at the moment, so if the Patriots aren’t going to be rushing then we can assume Brady will throw 40+ passes on his way to raking in the yardage.
Natural Light – Teddy Bridgewater ($10,800)
Ol’ Teddy B’s Week 4 coming out party against the Falcons is starting to look a little bit more like an outlier after being bottled up in his two following games against the Lions and Bills. He’s managed only 1 TD and 5 INTs the last two weeks, rushing for a lowly 18 yards and passing for 345. But there’s something the Falcons and Bridgewater’s opponent this week has in common; an awful secondary. Even if Teddy can’t seem to get his legs moving to pick you up some yards on the ground he will have a great shot at chucking a couple into the end zone. Look for him to hop back over that 200-yard mark against Tampa Bay and bet on him getting a TD or two through the air or with his feet.
Arrogant Bastard – Matt Forte ($15,900)
DeMarco Murray may be leading the league in rushing yards by a nearly 300-yard gap and putting his team on his back week after week but somehow that doesn’t make a huge difference in fantasy football. Even though Matt Forte averages 11 less carries/gm and has almost 500 (!!) less rushing yards, he has actually been outscoring DeMarco in fantasy on the year. How is this possible? It’s all in the fact that Forte leads the entire league in catches, RB, WR or otherwise. He’s catching 7+ passes/gm, turning his 62 targets into 52 catches, an 83% clip. Matt Forte is pretty much the Barry Bonds of catching 6 yard passes. No matter how bad Smokin’ Jay looks in a given week he always seems to find Forte in the underneath and any given play could turn into Matt breaking one off. I’ve been a fanboy all year long and I’m not backing off now that he’s facing a Patriots team that’s giving up nearly 20 FP/gm against RB backfields.
Budweiser – Lamar Miller ($10,750)
Lamar has yet to have a big breakout game but he has been very consistent, scoring between 15.80-18.70 in every game this year outside of Week 2 when Buffalo stuffed them early and forced them to throw 49 times. Jacksonville’s rush defense is actually in the top half of the league but their offense is so paltry and turnover prone that Miami should have the ball plenty of times in this game. They have a plodding offense, averaging only 6.5 yards/completion and running the ball 28 times a game. Daniel Thomas might snatch 5 or 6 carries behind him but look for Lamar to carry the rock often in this one and keep up his ~ 17 fp/gm median.
Natural Light – Travaris Cadet ($5,000)
Cadet has been eeked into the lineup over the past few weeks, typically at the expense of Pierre Thomas. But now it looks like Thomas will be out at least a couple weeks with a shoulder injury so the man who will benefit the most in this backfield will be Travaris. He has scored more than 10 fantasy points each of these last three weeks and if he can simply match that he’s an easy cheap buy this week as you can always deal with a player doubling his salary with fantasy points.*Looks as if Khiry Robinson will be out for Sunday’s game, clearing even more room.
Arrogant Bastard – Jordy Nelson ($12,700)
The handcuff is alive and well this week. Jordy/Rodgers will be dominating nearly all my 50/50 games and I’m more than comfortable with that prospect. As I mentioned with Aaron, this New Orleans pass defense is just no good and they are being eaten up by WR1s as well. They cover opposing Tight Ends but that’s of no concern to us because the Packers hardly even have a pass-catching TE. WR Corps in general are scoring at a clip of 27 FP/gm on the Saints. All signs point to a lucrative day between these teammates.
Budweiser – Michael Floyd ($9,800)
I actually love this price for a guy who has given us these yards in chronological order; 119, 19, 114, 7, 47, 47. Sounds like an up and down guy, but I think those weeks are behind us. Those 47 yard games the last two weeks came with Carson Palmer back healthy and behind center; each of those games were accompanied with Floyd’s only 2 TDs of the year. The Eagles have allowed eight TDs to WRs this far and run an offense that really gets both of the teams involved extra plays throughout the game. Both defenses are much better against the run then they are against the pass, I can see this being a bit of a shootout and Floyd could certainly be the beneficiary. Cheap price for a guy with a pretty high ceiling.
Natural Light – Donte Moncrief ($4,000)
Donte is a good candidate as this week’s “bottom of the barrel” grab to save you major duckets. It’s looking like Reggie Wayne will miss a week or two with an elbow injury and that opens the door for the rookie who already out-snapped Hakeem Nicks 23-19 last Sunday. Reggie has been averaging nearly 9 targets/gm and those passes need to go somewhere. Look for Moncrief to turn his 4 or 5 targets into plenty enough production to afford this price tag.
Arrogant Bastard – Greg Olsen ($11,100)
The Seahawks defense has been a little less dominant than a lot of us thought they would be, especially against opposing tight ends. They’re facing Greg Olsen this week, who is tied for tops in targets among these big guys with 59, or 8.4/wk. If you excuse his Week 4 performance in which he only received 5 targets and the Panthers in general were just embarrassed, he’s been averaging 19+FP/gm. Cam Newton has his feet back under him, he’s back to creating plays with his feet and this is nothing but a plus for a big guy like Olsen who can get open and make the most of his receptions.
Budweiser – Jordan Reed ($8,750)
Jordan has been less than stellar but certainly more than bad since his return from the sidelines. He’s also had Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy throwing him the ball so how much can we really expect? Cousins got benched near the end of the 3rd quarter and McCoy stepped in to attempt 12 passes, 4 of them going to Reed. If Colt gets the start this week it would seem as if he will lean on short passes to the TE. If RGIII somehow gets the start this week it only adds to Jordan’s value. It’ll take about 12.5 FP to afford this price and lucky for us he plays a Cowboys’ defense that has been exploited by TEs most of the season.
Natural Light – Jermaine Gresham ($6,950)
I hate to suggest a bad receiving TE two weeks in a row but this guy finished 2nd in targets on the team two weeks ago and 1st in targets on the team last week. AJ Green is still sidelined and the Bengals really thought Marvin Jones would be back right about this time but it looks like he’ll be out the rest of the season, leaving Cincy scrambling to find someone to feed the ball. Cincinnati might be at a loss but as long as we can plug in a tight end who can catch the ball and fall down after eight yards 6 or 7 times a game we can plug him in for this cheap of a price. A tight end with 7 to 12 targets is a great opportunity for a score as well.
Arrogant Bastard – Buffalo ($6,350)
Geno Smith and Co. had a pretty good game against the Patriots last week, losing only due to a last-second blocked FG. They completed short passes and pounded the rock, eclipsing 200 yards on the ground for the 2nd time this year (Week 1 win vs. Oakland) but they won’t be able to run their offense the same this week. New England is in the bottom third in rush defense while Buffalo is sitting at 4th best. The Jets will try to get the ball in the air and use their new weapon in Percy Harvin which is good news for opposing defenses. Don’t expect Geno to go back to back games without turning the ball over and the Bills’ sack total – which is already leading the league – will get a decent padding too.
Budweiser – Browns ($5,750)
A week after the Cleveland defense took it to rookie Blake Bortles by picking him off 3 times and sacking him twice more they get another gift of sorts: Raiders rookie Derek Carr. Carr hasn’t been quite the turnover machine that Bortles has, but he is throwing at a 60.5% clip which ranks him 30th in the NFL for anyone who’s thrown at least 40 balls. That’s a guy you want to be targeting. Even when you include a Week 6 against San Diego when Carr threw for 4 TDs the Raiders have still scored the absolute least points in the league this far. The game will also be a home matchup for Cleveland, which is a nice cherry on top.
Natural Light – Chiefs ($4,650)
While the Rams have a very good run blocking core, they’re not nearly as good at keeping their QB on his feet; Footballoutsiders.com ranks St Louis as 25th in Adjusted Sack Rate at 7.5%. The Chiefs on the other hand have averaged nearly 3 sacks a game and have only allowed 209 yards/gm through the air, good for 2nd in the league. Kansas City has been prone to give up some yards on the ground but it won’t be a good look for the Rams if they have to turn into a one-dimensional team with Tre Mason/Benny Cunningham/Tavon Austin toting the ball 30 times.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Aaron Rodgers
QB Teddy Bridgewater
RB Matt Forte
RB Lamar Miller
WR Jordy Nelson
WR Donte Moncrief
TE Greg Olsen
FLEX Travaris Cadet
FLEX Jermaine Gresham
I’m not a big fan of having two TEs on my team but I don’t mind this week; feel like I’ve got lot of guaranteed points with my big money guys. I’ll switch things up here and there to make sure I can avoid one player’s bad day messing up my DFS day.
If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”