DraftDay Picks: Week 13
November 29, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Are you into Daily Fantasy Football? Check out The Fake Football Week 13 DFS Cheat Sheet!
Hey all! Hope you had a great Thanksgiving full of food and family members you like being around. Finally got my first tournament play bink last week when all of my boys clicked and OBJ went insane and made the greatest catch in the history of football. Going to try to keep things rolling, and these are the guys I’ll be using to further pad my bankroll in the last third of the season:
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Aaron Rodgers ($17,800)
Aaron had a near season low of 209 yards and 2 TDs last week against Minnesota, but Green Bay also had the luxury of letting Eddie Lacy carry the ball 25 times. They won’t have that same luxury this weekend as they host a Patriots team that hasn’t scored less than 27 points in 2 months. This game easily has the highest O/U on the week at 57, so expect this to be an entertaining shoot out showcasing a couple great quarterbacks.
Budweiser – Ryan Tannehill ($13,500)
Tannehill is being congratulated for his second 3 score game of the year with the gift of facing the New York Jets defense. The NYJ D has allowed 27 passing TDs, and only once this year has a QB NOT scored multiple times. To make the kool-aid a little sweeter, Miami is leading the NFL in Red Zone trips/game. Ryan here is actually tied for the league lead in Red Zone passing attempts. Gang Green has a good rushing defense, so the Dolphins will have to pass the ball down the field to get anything going.
Natural Light – Zach Mettenberger ($10,000)
He did perfectly well enough last week to keep him in this spot, costing only $50 more this time around. Last week the Houston secondary looked like swiss cheese, allowing AJ Green alone to snag 9 catches before halftime. Mettenberger doesn’t have an AJ Green to throw to, but he also doesn’t have a run game; they’re going to have to pass against a team allowing 274 yards/game through the air.
Arrogant Bastard – Le’Veon Bell ($14,450)
The Saints are getting eaten up by running backs lately, allowing 120, 174, and then 210 yards on the ground by the 49ers, Bengals and Ravens respectively. New Orleans now travels to Pittsburgh to face off against Bell coming off a 200+ yard game himself. Le’Veon got to take his 33 carries into a bye-week to rest. His fresh legs should have a field day this Sunday.
Budweiser – Denard Robinson ($8,500)
A disappointing performance against the Colts last week has Shoelace’s price all the way down to under $9k. If we can write off last week as an outlier, we can see that Denard’s previous four games averaged out to 17 FP/gm, or twice as many fantasy points as his current price. With the added upside of facing off against a Giants defense allowing 142 yards on the ground and a 4.9 YPC, Robinson will bounce back nicely.
Natural Light – Tre Mason ($7,550)
Very cheap price for a RB1, no matter the team, as Tre has finally emerged as the guy in the St Louis backfield. Mason is averaging 21+ touches over the last four weeks and we’ve seen Benny Cunningham plummet all the way to 4 carries last week. The Rams are at home against a Raiders team that has allowed an NFL high 11 rushing TDs to opposing running backs. A decent floor with a high ceiling for just a little bit of your salary.
Arrogant Bastard – AJ Green ($13,150)
AJ’s on a roll and it’s a streak of good games that isn’t about to end against a Tampa Bay secondary ranked 31st against opposing team’s WR1 according to Football Outsider’s DVOA. The Bucs defense is allowing QBs to complete 67% of passes on the year, and for a guy who was just targeted 16 times and hauled in a career high 12 receptions last week, this matchup should bode well.
Budweiser – Keenan Allen ($9,500)
After a less-than-stellar beginning of the season Keenan has been gobbling up targets and even finding his way into the end zone a couple of times over the last 5 weeks. Averaging over 10+ targets over that span, he has been Philip Rivers’ safety valve to protect himself against a pass rush that seems to be getting there quicker and quicker. Things shouldn’t change much this week, as the Ravens pass rush should force Rivers to get the ball out quickly to Allen who will try to take advantage of a beat up Baltimore secondary missing arguably its best player in Jimmy Smith.
Natural Light – Kenny Stills ($7,250)
Kenny saw season-highs in both receptions (8) and targets (9) in the first game for the Saints since Brandin Cooks headed to the IR. The uptick in usage comes at a good time as both teams involved have pretty mediocre defenses with offenses that can be very explosive. This game has the second highest O/U on the week with two teams that desperately need a win. Brees will be airing it out in this one.
Arrogant Bastard – Rob Gronkowski ($15,050)
I’ll be quite honest with you guys, I don’t want to pay the salary for any of the top TEs this week. They’re just so damned expensive. If I were going to, I guess I’d have to just pay up for Gronk in a matchup that could end up being a very high scoring game. A tight end would pretty much HAVE to score 2 TDs to excuse a price this high and that’s not something I’d like to bet on.
Budweiser – Delanie Walker ($9,550)
After being knocked out of the game in Week 10 and being held out of their Week 11 matchup, Delanie came back strong in Week 12, amassing 155 yards on 9 targets. On 3 of those 9 targets he was 20+ yards down the field so it would seem like they have no problems getting him out there. Mettenberger won’t simply be using his tight end for little dump offs.
Natural Light – Travis Kelce ($7,900)
Most of us have high expectations of this guy breaking out after we see how well he plays when he’s actually included in the offense. It hasn’t happened very often this year, but at this price we can take a stab at it as he represents a good floor. Denver allows good stat lines to opposing TEs, having allowed Kelce a 4-81-0 when these teams last faced off back in September. Back then, Travis was not in on nearly 90% of the offensive snaps as he was last week. We might have the chance to see the first career 100-yard game from the KC tight end.
Arrogant Bastard – Dolphins ($8,000)
The Jets are back in “Wtf is our offense” mode (if they ever got out of that mode), with Geno Smith back as the starting QB and Vick available off the bench. Geno is welcomed back by the 4th best passing defense and 5th best total defense. In games where Miami’s defense has accumulated more than 1 sack (82% of them), they have averaged over 13 FP/gm. Jets quarterbacks have been sacked 36 times, good for 3rd most in the league.
Budweiser – Rams ($5,800)
Derek Carr has failed to get over 50% completion rate in the past two weeks and has failed to get over 200 yards in the past four. That’s exactly the kind of quarterback we want our defense to be facing off against. The Rams have racked up 21 sacks over their last 6 games and they’re at home, a couple more factors that point towards using them against the rookie this week.
Natural Light – Giants ($5,300)
Blake Bortles is perhaps the easiest quarterback to stream against, as he hasn’t played one game in his career in which he hasn’t thrown at least 1 INT. Of his 9 games, he has also only turned 8 of his passes into touchdowns. The Giants are sure to give up rushing yards, but if Jacksonville is going to be turning the ball over without putting any points on the board, those yards are something we can ignore.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Ryan Tannehill
QB Zach Mettenberger
RB Le’Veon Bell
RB Denard Robinson
WR AJ Green
WR Keenan Allen
TE Travis Kelce
FLEX Tre Mason
FLEX Delanie Walker
Aaaaand there you are. I’ll be plugging these guys into my cash games for the most part. I never go without tinkering and keeping my eye on the injury report. If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”