DraftDay Picks: Week 12
November 21, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Check out The Fake Football Week 12 DFS Cheat Sheet!
After an impromptu week off from giving out my DraftDay picks (my computer decided to kill itself and leave me with a head full of unwritten ideas), I’m back in week 12 to try and weave my way through a myriad of injuries throughout the league. We would, of course, never wish harm upon any players, but when one man goes down another one steps up. Typically the next man who steps up represents some good value for your #dfs lineup. Let’s see if we can find some cheapies this week.
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Drew Brees ($14,600)
Drew lost one of his favorite targets in Brandin Cooks, but he’s certainly not a quarterback that’s ever had a problem spreading the ball out — no matter who the receivers are. He hasn’t had the mind-boggling year that we’re so used to, but he’s still averaging a ridiculous 325 yards/game over the last 7 weeks and has way more multi-TD games then he has single-TD games on the year. The Ravens have a middle of the road defense that should be on the wrong end of the field against a team and a QB that desperately need a win in the Super Dome this week.
Budweiser – Jay Cutler ($13,050)
Smokin’ Jay decided to turn on his give-a-f*ck last week, ripping Minnesota to the tune of 330 yards and 3 touchdowns. This week he gets to face a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad secondary on his home field turf again. Cutler isn’t backed by a very good defense himself, so I see Chicago needing to throw the ball to keep the foot on the gas against the Buccaneers.
Natural Light – Zach Mettenberger ($9,950)
It’s all about money and a matchup here, folks. No QB has finished outside of the top-12 in any given week against the Eagles’ defense this year. Philly allows 263 yards/game through the air and their 22 TDs allowed are behind only the Bears and Jets. Matchups, matchups, matchups.
Arrogant Bastard – DeMarco Murray ($14,500)
A Week 11 bye sets up the Cowboys and DeMarco to get some rest and come out to the Meadowlands to take on the worst rush defense in the league. The Giants allow 4.9 YPC, Murray averages 5.1 YPC. The Giants allow 145 yards/game, Murray averages 123 yards/game. The NYG don’t even have the luxury of a home field advantage, as they still give up 115 yards/game when playing in a friendly environment. Throw in a few receptions and DeMarco’s ceiling is monstrous.
Budweiser – C.J. Anderson ($9,850)
Montee Ball returned against the Rams to the tune of 2 targets, 0 rushing attempts and 1 reinjured groin. Ouch. One Mr. Cortrelle Javon Anderson stepped back into the lead back role he had held the week before and was not able to make any leeway against the St Louis rush defense (totaling a mere 29 yards on 9 attempts). The rush defense doesn’t get any easier this week as Denver faces off against a very good Miami frontline, but CJ’s value doesn’t need to come from the run game as he has 17 targets and 159 yards in his two games as the RB1 – even leading the team in catches last week. Emmanuel Sanders (954 yards – 5th in NFL) and Julius Thomas (12 TDs – 1st in NFL) are both questionable for Sunday afternoon’s contest. Peyton’s passes have to go somewhere.
Natural Light – Isaiah Crowell ($5,800)
Caaaa-Cawww! The calls were ringing loud in the Crowell household Tuesday morning when Cleveland released Ben Tate and cleared some confusion in a crowded Browns backfield that still includes Terrance West. Isaiah got the start last week and did well enough to keep the lead back role. The two rookies will still assuredly split some carries, but they will do so against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed 13 rushing TDs (T-worst in league) and over 21 FP/gm to opposing RBs.
Arrogant Bastard – A.J. Green ($11,550)
After a great game against the bad Saints defense, Andy Dalton and his favorite (healthy) weapon get to face another susceptible defense when they travel to Houston and lineup against the team allowing the 2nd most yards through the air in the league. The Texans haven’t kept a WR out of the endzone since Week 1, coughing up 14 TDs against wide outs in the last 9 weeks. #1 WRs are averaging 94.4 yards against them, a yard total that I would see as AJ’s floor this week.
Budweiser – Anquan Boldin ($9,950)
Anquan has been absolute gold in 50/50 leagues this year, setting a great floor with a consistent workload and consistent output. Boldin hasn’t had less than 6 targets in a game this year and hasn’t scored less than 10 fantasy points in 7 straight weeks, despite not breaking the 100-yard threshold. The weak Washington secondary travels across the country to play in San Francisco one week after allowing a 7-209-2 line from Mike Evans. They have now allowed 20 TDs through the air.
Natural Light – Cecil Shorts III ($7,500)
In the last 5 weeks, Cecil has a low of 7 targets and a high of 16 targets, solidifying himself in the middle of a volatile passing attack. Allen Robinson and his 81 targets broke their collective foot, ending the Jaguars rookie wide receiver’s season and leaving lots of targets to spread around the field. Shorts will most likely benefit the most from this, helping him top 10 looks from rookie Blake Bortles. The Colts would figure to get some hits and turnovers out of the QB, but it shouldn’t affect Cecil’s output too much as Indianapolis is surrendering 262 yards through the air per game.
Arrogant Bastard – Jimmy Graham ($13,650)
It seems like I should just rename this slot “Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski”. These jerks are just so much better than every tight end in the league as long as they’re healthy. Hell, they’re better than most wide receivers, too. This week it simply comes down to New England facing a top-3 defense (Lions) and the Saints desperately needing a win against a middling defense (Ravens). Brandin Cooks, one of Drew Brees’ more consistent targets, is also heading to the IR, which will force Graham to be force-fed even more than usual.
Budweiser – Coby Fleener ($9,150)
With the news of a possible high ankle sprain and the signing of TE Weslye Saunders earlier this week, it would seem as if the Colts are preparing for Dwayne Allen to miss the game Sunday. Coby Fleener made the best of the opportunity last week, snagging each of his 7 targets for a career best 144 yards. Trent Richardson is running the ball like his shoes are tied together, and the recent loss of check-down machine Ahmad Bradshaw has dashed Indianapolis’ hopes of moving the ball with a running back. I see Coby gobbling up short yardage passes and Red Zone targets alike.
Natural Light – Jacob Tamme ($6,000)
If you’re going to boot any position it has to be the TE spot. The goal here is to find the cheapest piece you can find and hope to not score zero. JJ Watt caught 1 for 2 yards and a score. He would have finished in the top-10 if he qualified. Pickings are slim for cheap guys. I digress, start Tamme if Julius Thomas isn’t playing Sunday. You’ll have a chance to save lots of dough with a ceiling around 12-15 points. If JT is playing, go with Zach Ertz ($7,100).
Arrogant Bastard – 49ers ($6,950)
Aldon Smith and the 49ers pass rush absolutely terrorized Eli Manning in week 11, getting pressure in his face even though they only accumulated 7 QB hits in the game. The huge number they lacked in the sack column they more then made up for with interceptions — demoralizing Eli with FIVE of them and forcing plenty of sad panda “Manning faces.” I wouldn’t hang my hat on 5 more turnovers, but San Francisco is going to host RGIII this week; the guy who just had a whale of a time trying to move the ball down the field against the Tampa Bay defense.
Budweiser – Buffalo ($6,350)
The Jets will take the short travel over to Buffalo to face the 6th ranked fantasy D/ST in what looks like a game that could end up with something close to a baseball score as the weather over there is looking pretty awful right now. You’ll do well to remember that just one month ago when these two teams faced off, Geno Smith and Mike Vick combined for 6 turnovers in an absolutely disgusting display of football. Oh yeah, and the Bills are still leading the AFC in sacks with a whopping 57!
Natural Light – Indianapolis ($4,550)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have found a very good running back they can depend on in Denard Robinson, but they still have the same offense around him; an offense that still leads the league in interceptions and sacks. This is all we need to know for a defense playing at home and looking to redeem themselves after just being torn open by the Patriots and a relative unknown Jonas Gray in Primetime. In the week 3 game between these teams in Jacksonville, Indy’s defense racked up 2 INTs and 4 sacks on their way to 17 fantasy points.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Drew Brees
QB Zach Mettenberger
RB DeMarco Murray
RB CJ Anderson
WR AJ Green
WR Anquan Boldin
TE Coby Fleener
FLEX Isaiah Crowell
FLEX Rashad Jennings
Happy I can squeeze Rashad in here, he carried the ball 18 times in his first game back to go along with 7 targets out of the backfield. Giants obviously aren’t afraid of incorporating him into the offense right off the bat.
If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”