DraftDay Picks: Week 10
November 8, 2014 | Justin Edwards
Check out The Fake Football’s Week 10 DFS Cheat Sheet!
This season is flying by something fierce. You probably already know where you stand in your year-long leagues; whether you’ve thrown in the towel or you’re vying for position in playoff seeding. Luckily for us DFS players, the fantasy action doesn’t end until the NFL season ends. Here are my DraftDay picks for Week 10:
Three tiers or levels of players I will be looking at:
Arrogant Bastard: Some of the best around and a price tag to match
Budweiser: Solid choice with a solid price
Natural Light: The cheapest you can find while still obtaining value
Arrogant Bastard – Ben Roethlisberger ($15,650)
Gotta ride the hot hand here against a Jets defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league. NYJ has a great rush defense which should force Pittsburgh to put the ball up against a secondary that has a 24:1 TD:INT. Jets have allowed at least 2 touchdowns through the air in every single week this year. Don’t see that ending this week.
Budweiser – Matt Ryan ($12,400)
This Falcons offense started off incredibly with Matt Ryan throwing for 448 yards and 3 TDs. The offense has been a bit of a slippery slope since then. They’ll look to get their head above water against this Tampa Bay defense that is allowing 293 pass yards/gm and 5th most FP/gm to QBs. Look for Ryan to come out of the bye week and chuck us a couple TDs.
Natural Light – Mark Sanchez ($11,500)
A product of the system? I guess we’ll see. Nick Foles went down last week with a broken or fractured or missing collarbone and Mark Sanchez (yes, THAT Mark Sanchez) came in and completed 15/22 passes and 2 touchdowns. Foles had some perfectly fine fantasy weeks while ranking as the 7th worst Pro Football Focus QB in passer rating and a 13:10 TD:INT. I wouldn’t be mad about plugging him into a game against a middling Carolina pass defense.
Arrogant Bastard – Matt Forte ($16,350)
I just can’t imagine not putting this guy in any lineups I can afford him in. He averages over 23 touches a game, is 2nd in the league in receptions to Antonio Brown and has 28+ FP/gm over the last four weeks. In week 10 he gets the worst rush defense in the league in Green Bay. Yes please.
Budweiser – LeSean McCoy ($10,250)
Shady has yet to have that huge fantasy week and his price is lowering more and more to reflect that. This week should be the best chance for a breakout to happen. Carolina is allowing the 3rd most points to RBs, 2nd most TDs to RBs, and 4.89 YPC. Philadelphia’s offensive line is back and healthy which will help McCoy and his 26 Red Zone looks. He’s only scored once this season despite that high usage within the 20-yard line so his scores have nowhere to go but up.
Natural Light – Denard Robinson ($8,000)
Toby Gerhart played his second healthy game in as many weeks, saw 31% of the snaps touched the ball only 6 times, 3 of them were rushes. Denard was out there for 61% of the snaps, carrying the ball 17 times for 94 yards and a touchdown. He’s got three straight weeks with 100+ total yards and Jacksonville is playing a Cowboys defense allowing over 5 YPC.
Arrogant Bastard – Antonio Brown ($15,900)
If you decide to go with Big Ben this week you are going to want to handcuff the most targeted WR in the league to go with him. Antonio hasn’t received less than 84 yards through the air this year and hasn’t caught less than 5 passes in something like 18 seasons. The second part might be an exaggeration but what I’m saying is his floor might be higher than anyone else in the league.
Budweiser – Brandon Marshall ($9,850)
Remember this guy? He scored 3 TDs this year. In one game! With a hampered ankle! He hasn’t done much in the last couple of weeks despite being apparently healthy but we can blame that on facing two top-8 defenses against wide receivers. The bye week should have done him and this offense some good. Brandon has been targeted 9 or more times each of the last three weeks and he is still 4th in the league in red zone targets even with his lingering injury. First score since week 4 seems like a pretty decent bet.
Natural Light – Justin Hunter ($6,550)
Zach Mettenberger isn’t much of an accurate passer but the good news here is that he’s gonna have to throw a lot and it seems like much of that is going to go to Justin Hunter. Justin pulled in a modest 4-31-1 statline but Zach targeted him 10 times in his first career start. With a price set this low all we’re concerned about is volume and it seems like he will get plenty of it.
Arrogant Bastard – Greg Olsen ($10,300)
Greg has been the number 2 TE in FP/gm the last five weeks, despite two of those weeks being duds. A big reason for his two down weeks has been the sputtering of the offense and it’s inability to accumulate many plays. That shouldn’t be a problem this week as they head to Philadelphia to play one of the quickest moving offenses in the league. Carolina will have to toss the ball to stay in the game which should bring Greg’s target level back in the double digit range.
Budweiser – Owen Daniels ($8,350)
In the 5 games in which Owen has been the first option at TE, he is 2nd on the team with 34 targets, only 2 behind Steve Smith. He has two straight 9 target games, pulling in 6 catches and 50+ yards in each. Only 3 TDs on the season but Flacco looks to him in the Red Zone as often as anyone else on the team.
Natural Light – John Carlson ($5,250)
The team-leading 8 targets Carlson received in Week 9 is more than likely just an outlier as Pahh-mer likes to spread the ball as much as anyone. Nonetheless he has still averaged 6 targets in the last 4 weeks and even snagged a TD last week. This ceiling is definitely a low one but if you’re looking to save a few thousand duckets while getting atleast a handful of points, might as well go with
Arrogant Bastard – Buffalo ($6,800)
The Chiefs play a very conservative style offense which could make a bit of an easy match-up for this Bills’ defense. Buffalo is now leading the AFC in sacks with 28 and Alex Smith has absorbed 19 of them himself this season, being hit with 3 or more in three separate weeks. Alex has yet to throw a TD to a WR this year and Buffalo is allowing the 22nd most FP against TEs which certainly won’t help their passing attack. Kansas City will lean heavily on Jamaal Charles to try and move the ball against the number 8 rushing defense in the league.
Budweiser – Arizona ($5,800)
The Cardinals are facing a “three-headed monster” of RBs in Tre Mason, Benny Cunningham and Zac Stacy this week. They shouldn’t have too much of a problem with this non-sensical rotation as they have the 3rd best rushing defense in the league. Arizona has given up the most passing yards/gm so far this year but they’re running into a QB in Austin Davis who is mustering only 223 yards/gm.
Natural Light – Dallas ($5,150)
This isn’t a defense that is ever going to shutout another team and this week is no exception, but you’ve got to chase the opportunity for turnovers. Blake Bortles has an 8:13 TD:INT, a lost fumble and 19 sacks taken in his 7 games behind center. The Cowboys could give up 200 yards rushing but Bortles will be tossing it 30+ times while the Jaguars figure to be playing from behind.
Here’s how I’m going to incorporate my mixed bag of good, decent, and cheap beer bottles into a winning 10-pack:
QB Ben Roethlisberger
QB Matt Ryan
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Denard Robinson
WR Antonio Brown
WR Justin Hunter
TE John Carlson
FLEX Brandon Marshall
FLEX Calvin Johnson
By taking a very cheap TE that I’m not very excited about in John Carlson, I was able to afford Calvin Johnson in a flex spot. I won’t argue about that.
If you think these are awful picks and would like to let me know how your lineup is better, feel free to comment below or holla at ya boy on twitter.
Good luck fantasy nerds, hope you’re rolling in profit soon, and if not remember: “That’s the way she goes. Sometimes she goes, sometimes it doesn’t. She didn’t go. That’s the way she goes.”