Conference Championship DFS: It’s A Trap!
January 17, 2015 | Renee Miller
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One last trap for one last weekend of NFL DFS. Some would probably argue that just playing this slate is the trap. Ignoring that possibility, we have two great games on tap Sunday. Four great offenses (all top 10 except NE (11th) in total yards on the regular season) meet two great defenses. If defense wins championships, I guess we’re looking at a NE-SEA Superbowl. That’s the expectation, with the way these teams have been playing in their last few games.
I’ve waited till the last minute to write this article, as I often do, making lineups, getting the feel of the group-think via Twitter, and of course, wondering what I’m missing in my lineup building process. The one thing I keep coming back to this weekend is the wild underestimation of the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay led the league in points per game in the regular season (30.4). Aaron Rodgers had 38 TD and 5 INT, for a ratio of 7.6. He threw one interception for every 7.6 touchdown passes. The next best player in the league, Tony Romo, had a ratio of 3.8 for comparison. Jordy Nelson caught 13 TDs, Randall Cobb caught 12, and even Davante Adams had 4 TD catches. Eddie Lacy keeps defenses honest, as he finished the season in the 10-11th range in TD, yards, and yards/game. These are top fantasy players that have done well in tough match ups before.
The Packers are the longest shot to win the Superbowl and significant underdogs this weekend in a predicted low scoring game. Aaron Rodgers is playing with a significant calf injury that at times last week limited not only his mobility, but his ability to even watch his passes be caught. Seattle’s defense was up and down at times early in the year, but is playing like a fortress right now, especially at home. The 17 points they allowed to Carolina last week was the most since Nov 16. In five of the intervening games they allowed single digit points to opponents.
The consensus is to fade Green Bay for DFS this weekend, and I’m guilty of it too. I’ve said I’m not paying up for Nelson or Cobb, the two most expensive WR on the sites and that I’d only really consider Rodgers for a tournament lineup on DraftKings, where he’s the least expensive of the four. The more I think about that, the more it seems like avoiding Packers at Seattle could be the biggest trap of the week. Of all the QB this week, Rodgers is the one I am most afraid of underestimating, even with the injury. He went for 316 yards and 3 TD last week with the same injury. I won’t be surprised if Rodgers and Nelson win someone a lot of money this weekend. I wouldn’t change everything I’ve built thus far around Tom Brady or Russell Wilson, but I’ll be tweaking things to accommodate a couple Packers in some lineups too.