Buy Low, Sell High: Post Week 5
October 9, 2014 | Asher Molk
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Hello Fake Footballers! Asher Molk here, and I’m back for another wonderful year of helping you win your fake football leagues via smart and savvy trading. “Buying Low” and “Selling High” is quite a simple economic principal: give away commodities while their perceived value is greater than their actual value, and try to acquire commodities while their perceived value is lower than their actual value. In other words, trade bad players after good games for good players after bad games! Here are a few trends and nuggets of wisdom I encourage you to follow whilst trading:
– Look beyond the box score! Investigate why a mediocrely talented player did so well, or why a superstar did so poorly. Then ask yourself- are the scenarios that caused those outcomes likely to continue on a game-to-game basis? What is the long-term impact here? Statistics CAN LIE, so think long-term.
– A major trend in my articles (and hopefully on your fantasy teams) will be getting rid of averagely-talented players: plodding running backs who don’t make anyone miss or contribute in the passing game, or wide receivers who offer nothing after the catch, etc. More importantly, you will be trying to acquire explosive, dynamic talents who are capable of changing the game every time they touch the ball. TALENT IS MOST IMPORTANT!
– Trading away two decent/good players for one great player is almost always a great idea. Usually, the person getting the one better player wins the deal.
– From Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL on Twitter, give him a follow) of Rotoworld.com: Think in terms of draft value and ADP when you trade. If you are thinking of trading away Jamaal Charles for Alfred Morris and Kelvin Benjamin, think about if you would trade a top 2 pick for a 4th and 6th rounder. This practice should help give clarity to your trades!
– NEVER lead with your best or final trade offer! Instead, start small, even offer deals they probably won’t accept to start with. This doesn’t mean offer Mason Crosby for DeMarco Murray , but you never know what a person may say yes to, it’s often quite surprising. If you lead with your best offer, you have nowhere to go but down. Start by being a little optimistic…
– If there are quality players on your waiver wire that you want but you do not know whom to drop, let go of your kicker and/or defense for that player. You can always make a trade to make roster space, or make a game-time decision on whom you want to drop. A lot can happen in a week, and you don’t want to miss out on the next Victor Cruz or Alfred Morris just because you think Sebastian Janikowski will average 1 more point per game than Nick Novak.
– Target owners who are close to the bottom of the standings – they are probably the most willing to do a desperation move in order to shake up their team. Also, make sure to target players the owner is likely frustrated with.
Fred Jackson: Death, taxes, and Fred Jackson. Always written off for dead, always coming back stronger than ever. While he certainly seemed in decline when CJ Spiller was putting clown suits on defenders under Chan Gailey, the Doug Marrone/Nate Hackett regime has shown no such intentions to utilizer Spiller correctly. The sample size is big enough that it is evident they do not care to use Spiller effectively, culminating with a possible benching last week against the Lions. And when Spiller loses, Fred Jackson wins. It looks like he has earned more carries going forward, and has at least 6 catches in his past 3 games. The ball is going to move better under Orton- not amazingly- but better than with EJ Manuel. With Spiller likely being relegated to strict COP-back status, Jackson is going to see even more carries. I think he’s a fine RB2 going forward.
Jeremy Hill: Although he’s clearly played second fiddle to Gio Bernard, there are a few very promising signs for Hill’s redraft future. First, he’s been far more efficient carrying the ball than Gio Bernard. As the year wears on and so does Bernard, Hill is probably going to be more heavily involved in the game-plan. Throw in AJ Green’s potentially serious injury, and Hue Jackson is going to do what he does best- maximize the talent on his roster. I don’t think we are going to see too many games where Hill gets less than 10 touches, and likely more. Get him as a throw-in as your bye-week RB2/flex.
Percy Harvin: I have witnessed many things from watching NFL football. But THREE touchdowns for one player called back due to penalty in a single game? That is absurd. Although this is a run-heavy team still, there are two very promising developments for Harvin’s future. The first is Russell Wilson’s continued breakout as a top-notch fantasy quarterback. It looks like the training wheels are officially off, and Wilson is rewarded the Seahawks and his fantasy owners with excellent production. Secondly, the Seahawks continue to show they know how to use Harvin: get the ball in his hands first, ask questions later. Screens, jet sweeps, option plays- these are fantasy gold for Harvin. If he had scored even two of those touchdowns last week, he would likely be impossible to acquire.
Austin Davis and Brian Quick: This actually has little to do with Davis and Quick as players- they don’t look like flashes in the pan. But their schedule is going to get rough…and fast. They see the 49ers, Seahawks, Chiefs, 49ers again, Cardinals, Broncos, and Chargers for the next 7 weeks- not exactly the same as the Tampa Bays, Dallases, and Philadelphias they’ve been going up against recently. More than half of those games are on the road and as more teams get tape on Davis and Quick, the most well-equipped they’ll be to stop this impressive duo. They may have reached their high-point of the season already.
Kendall Wright: As a Titans fan, I want to believe. But until they get a competent quarterback, I’m giving up the ghost. Yes, he matched his touchdown productivity from all of last season in one game last week, but I’m not exactly banking on 6 catches for a whopping 47 yards from Charlie Whitehurst being a predictor of fantasy success going forward. I am not sure how he was transformed from dynamic downfield threat in college to underneath slot receiver on the Titans, but I’m done asking questions at this point. Sell him to someone who doesn’t know he hasn’t surpassed 55 receiving yards since mid-December.
Odell Beckham: A world-class athlete with exceptional ball skills, this “sell” does not apply to dynasty leaguers. But in redraft? We’ll start with the fact that this is a team with a volatile (yet recently very effective) Eli Manning delivering him the ball and fighting for targets with Cruz, Randle, and Donnell. Let’s also not forget this is a rookie who has been dealing with what turned out to be a decently severe hamstring injury since training camp. As Miles Austin, Cecil Shorts, and most recently Eric Decker have taught us, hamstring injuries often are not a one-and-done deal. I think his return helps Eli Manning much more than his own fantasy prospects. There are going to be some booms, but barring injury to Cruz or Randle, the busts will outweigh them.
Keep Buying: Marques Colston, Keenan Allen, Jordan Cameron, Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, Isaiah Crowell
Keep Selling: Sammy Watkins, Matt Asiata, Jordan Matthews, Brian Hartline, LeGarrette Blount, Eddie Royal, Ahmad Bradshaw, Steve Smith
Stop Buying: Jason Witten
Stop Selling: Emmanuel Sanders