Buy Low, Sell High: Post Week 4
October 3, 2014 | Asher Molk
Here is our Week 5 DFS Cheat Sheet with picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, DraftDay and Fantasy Elite
Check out Spreadsheet Sports powerful projection and optimal lineup tool and get $5 off by going through The Fake Football here.
Reggie Bush: Before the season, many thought Joique Bell was going to take the reins in this backfield, playing a hybrid Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingram role, while Bush was to be relegated to a change of pace, Sprolesian passing down back. But through 4 games? Not the case. Bell has only out-carried Bush 48 to 39, while Bell has caught a mere 9 passes- 6 of them in garbage time during a Week Two loss to Carolina. While neither back has been terribly efficient, Bell is now dealing with a concussion. Bush has proven in the past that he can carry a full workload, and he may get a chance to do so for a game or two. Even when Bell returns, Bush’s efficiency is going to catch up with his touches. I think he is a very quality PPR RB2 that has a brighter future than meets the eye.
Brandon Marshall: Marshall has caught the touchdowns, but where are the yards and catches? One game over 48 yards? Two games with 2 or less catches? Not the Brandon Marshall people spent their late first or early second round pick on. However, much of it has had to do with a nagging ankle injury that has rendered Marshall a glorified decoy. The good news? He’s practicing in full this week, and seems to be as healthy as he’s been all year. If you’re worried about performance, ask yourself this: when is the last time Marshall was less than anything stellar with Cutler throwing him the ball?
Isaiah Crowell: This may seem like an odd inclusion because of Ben Tate’s return this week, but in my opinion there has never been a better time to buy. With Ben Tate on the field once again, his price tag has probably dropped significantly. But with Tate being a walking injury waiting to happen, Crowell’s chance is coming. Coaches have already hinted he’s passed Terrance West on the depth chart, and another Tate injury is going to put Crowell as borderline RB1.
Eddie Royal: Usually, I like to put players whose opportunity do not match their production as “sell highs”. But Royal is among the Chargers’ leaders in targets and has played a vital role between the 20s and in the red zone. However, we’ve seen this show before: early last year Royal was on pace for 20 touchdowns, only to finish as a fantasy afterthought the rest of the way. Especially after a two-touchdown, 100+ yard game, his value isn’t going to get any higher than it is right now. Keenan Allen is reasserting himself as the top dog in that passing game, and Royal will fade into the sunset once again.
Ahmad Bradshaw: It’s rare I recommend to sell someone with a solidified role who is playing lights-out football. But once a player with multiple and chronic foot and ankle issues leaves a game in a walking boot, it’s time to bail. Although Trent Richardson is being outplayed and outscored by Bradshaw, the former isn’t going anywhere as the Colts ease into first place in a weak division. He’s a very valuable asset in fantasy and although he’s practicing and on pace to play, where there is smoke there is fire.
Steve Smith: Arguably the riskiest of a risky sell-high week, but I don’t think Steve Smith is here to stay as a top-15 option. Steve Smith has arguably been my favorite player to watch the past 10 years. I love his ferocity and competitiveness, but a season-long renaissance for a 35 year-old wide receiver catching passes from Joe Flacco seems unlikely. Before last week, his last multi-touchdown game was the first contest of Cam Newton’s career. He hasn’t caught more than 7 touchdowns in a season since he was 27 years old, and he’s already at 3 for the year. Forget the fact that his touchdowns weren’t exactly drawn up the way they occurred- coverage is going to start tilting his way while Torrey Smith’s targets slowly increase. He’s more WR3 than WR1.