Wild Card Weekend DFS Cheat Sheet: FantasyDraft and Yahoo! (UPDATED)
January 4, 2017 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to The Fake Football Wild Card Weekend FantasyDraft and Yahoo! DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Doug Shain, Chet Gresham, and Justin Bales we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FantasyDraft and Yahoo!, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news. And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. One Month ($6.99) And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Lamar Miller is no longer on the injury report and gets a good matchup. Use him as usual.
Russell Wilson won’t play with his knee brace, which should help his rushing stats and upside in a good matchup.
Randall Cobb is questionable, but likely will play. He hasn’t done enough lately to merit much hope, especially coming off an injury. He also block Geronimo Allison from work.
Sammie Coates is no longer on the injury report. He hasn’t done much after a fast start due to injuries, but he’s likely the healthiest he’s been since the start of the season. He has some GPP appeal in a small slate like this.
Ladarius Green didn’t practice on Friday, so he is looking more than likely to be out. This will give Jesse James a little more touchdown appeal and Eli Rogers more targets.
Paul Perkins will remain in a committee with Rashad Jennings, but beat reporters believe Perkins will get the start against the Packers. He will likely be fairly wide owned across DFS as all the trends speak to him leading the way this week.
Sample FantasyDraft Lineups
GPP 4 (NEW)
FantasyDraft Lineup Configurations
Let this be your weekly reminder that we are not trying to come in first place in a cash game, we are merely trying to finish in the top half of our tournaments. This means that we are going to worry a lot more about our floor than our ceiling. There’s only one QB that’d I’d even consider in a cash game this weekend and that’s Ben Roethlisberger. He’s got the best matchup and he’s the safest play on the board. Big Ben at home is the AFC equivalent of Drew Brees at home and that means we’ve got a nice, high floor. I’m going to pair Ben up with a couple of target machines at WR in Brown and Hopkins. Nuk looks like his old self and I expect another solid game out of him this weekend. I can’t afford OBJ but I actually think that this is going to be a Sterling Shepard game anyway. If you take out Week 17, he was pretty consistently looking at 5 catches and 60 yards per week with a 50/50 shot on a TD all season. At his price and on a four game slate, I’ll gladly take that in cash against a pathetic secondary. Ty Montgomery is intriguing to me in a cash game because of how well the Giants cover WR. Rodgers is going to have to look to his role players to move the ball and the best one of the bunch is clearly Montgomery. He may not get 10 carries this weekend but he’ll find his way to 12+ touches overall. Jay Ajayi ran for 200 yards the last time he faced PIT and I think that Miami is going to want to control the clock in this game. It won’t work but it should give Ajayi a nice floor of 15 carries and 60+ yards. Zach Zenner has averaged 21 fantasy points in a half-point PPR leagues since he took over the RB duties in DET. The Seahawks have gotten gashed by the run the last two weeks. He’s a lock to hit value. Fiedorowicz is boring but he’s the safest TE play on the board. Osweiler loves and trusts him. The Giants are a little risky in cash but they work for the price.
There’s not a ton to talk about with the GPP lineups this weekend. We want to take a few safe plays (Steelers) and mix in some potentially low-owned plays with upside (Richardson, Murray, Cook, Shepard, and Stills – not rostered but very much in play). In my Osweiler lineup I used Bell and Zenner as my safe plays, while in my Roethlisberger lineups it was Ben and Brown that were my safe plays. I’ve got Ajayi and Hopkins in both lineups because I feel like both can have big weeks and their prices appealed to me. The one play I took that week in these lineups that wasn’t on the Cheat Sheet was Golden Tate because I didn’t want to leave too much money on the table and there’s the revenge game narrative at play. I don’t do that in a cash game but in a GPP I think it’s ok to look at that kind of motivation. As I alluded to above, I don’t have Kenny Stills in any of these lineups but I really like him this weekend and wouldn’t hesitate to use him as an upside play.
I felt bad for good old Kenny Stills so I made a lineup with him in it. I actually really like this lineup as it has the Miami stack but also gives you a ton of upside with both Steelers big boys. I love Jared Cook in a GPP, Sterling Shepard is one of my picks to have a big game…yeah, this lineup works wonders. Enjoy it!
UPDATED: I’ve come around quite a bit on the Seahawks offense this week, so much so that I’m now in the camp that says it might be the best play in a GPP to actually stack Seattle. So many people are going to be on Pittsburgh as the chalk and then a lot of GB/NYG as a middling play as well as MIA as the contrarian play. Who is going to be on Seattle? I suppose you could say the same about DET or anyone outside of CJF in the HOU/OAK game but the difference is that Seattle can be really good on offense when they get rolling while the other teams are facing too quality of an opposition to be considered a threat. I think we are right in our wheelhouse with this lineup as it gets you a ton of exposure to SEA while retaining the relative safety of Bell/Zenner/Brown, and it also allows for some interesting upside with Stills and Cook. I’m a big fan of this lineup and will be using it for sure this weekend.
Sample Yahoo! Lineups
Yahoo! Lineup Configurations
This safest stack this week is Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. They will likely be highly owned, and it would be somewhat of a mistake to avoid them in cash games. That takes up most of the salary, so you’ll need to find some cheap options. Zach Zenner has been playing well recently, and he’s a great option at running back this week. Jared Cook gets a good matchup against the Giants, who have struggled against the tight end this season, and he’s extremely cheap. Jermaine Kearse and Kenny Still have been seeing quite a few targets for their prices recently, and they are both solid salary relief options. DeAndre Hopkins adds a bit of upside to the team, and he should be featured for the Texans this week. Last, the Packers defense fit, and they have been playing well recently, and get a solid matchup against the Giants.
I started this team with a stack of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Davante Adams for a few reasons. Green Bay will likely rely on Rodgers’ arm this week, which adds more value to Nelson and Adams. They also get a matchup against a tough New York defense, which may cause their ownership to drop. I also added Le’Veon Bell to the lineup, as he’s the best running back this week. Zach Zenner is still a bit too cheap, and he’s a great option in all leagues. Again, I used Jermaine Kearse and Kenny Stills, who should both see plenty of targets this week. I added Will Tye, who has been playing well recently, and he comes with an extremely low price tag. I also used the Packers defense, who come with elite upside against the Giants this week.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters. As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience. To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. Thanks, and have fun!!
Note: Links are live!
NOTES: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||FanDraf||Yahoo||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp FanDraf Yahoo Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $7,800 $20 16.9 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $5,000 $16 21.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $5,600 $13 22.2 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $5,200 $12 27.0 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $6,700 $19 24.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $5,500 $13 26.3 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $5,900 $16 31.9 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $4,600 $10 27.2 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|