Wild Card Weekend DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)
January 6, 2017 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to The Fake Football Wild Card Weekend FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
Get in on the Week 1 DraftKings Freeroll! $100K in Prizes!
Join Yahoo’s Yearly DFS League for FREE in the Yahoo Cup Freeroll!
Lamar Miller is no longer on the injury report and gets a good matchup. Use him as usual.
Russell Wilson won’t play with his knee brace, which should help his rushing stats and upside in a good matchup.
Randall Cobb is questionable, but likely will play. He hasn’t done enough lately to merit much hope, especially coming off an injury. He also block Geronimo Allison from work.
Sammie Coates is no longer on the injury report. He hasn’t done much after a fast start due to injuries, but he’s likely the healthiest he’s been since the start of the season. He has some GPP appeal in a small slate like this.
Ladarius Green didn’t practice on Friday, so he is looking more than likely to be out. This will give Jesse James a little more touchdown appeal and Eli Rogers more targets.
Paul Perkins will remain in a committee with Rashad Jennings, but beat reporters believe Perkins will get the start against the Packers. He will likely be fairly wide owned across DFS as all the trends speak to him leading the way this week.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
FanDuel Lineup Configurations
Ben and Bell. Bell and Ben. For those of you old enough to remember the late 80s, early 90s in Pittsburgh, the Killer B’s are back in the Steel City. Can they get themselves to the promised land unlike Bonds and Bonilla? They certainly have a shot (and they won’t have to face an Atlanta team until the Super Bowl, should they make it that far). Ben may have had a terrible outing against these Dolphins on the road earlier this season, but this Steelers’ team is humming, and Ben is a completely different QB at home, where he is averaging a shocking 10.5 FP more than on the road. Yowzas. Even at $8.5K, he’s a bargain to me this week. Bell, even at $10,300, is a must for me in cash games. At 23.3 FP per game on the season, he is still averaging more than 2X his salary, despite how high it has risen. With the short slate, I’d expect upwards of 60% ownership in cash games, and that is probably being very conservative as he is clearly the best RB on the slate. You can fade him in tournaments, but I personally will not be doing so in cash lineups.
After resting two weeks, Lamar Miller should be fairly healthy and reading to take on a big load against a Raiders’ team he scored a healthy 18.3 FP on earlier this season. This is an Oakland team that just got demolished by the Broncos’ RBs to the tune of 200 total yards and 2 TDs. With their 3rd string rookie QB at the helm, Oakland is in shambles. If Osweiler can even be mediocre this week, Houston’s D and Miller leading the run game should lead to a win (of course, it is Osweiler, so take nothing for granted!). Miller isn’t the only Texan on the roster as Fiedorowicz (Osweiler’s favorite receiving option) and Nick Novak join the team. I wanted to fit the Texans’ D in as well, but they were just a tad too expensive to fit in the other pieces.
At WR, I’ve had to make some concessions due to the Bell/Ben stack. I was able to fit Jordy Nelson onto the team, but had to go much cheaper at the other two slots. Fortunately, Landry is reasonably priced. The Dolphins should be playing from behind this game, so I’m looking for Moore to throw repeatedly. It would behoove Miami to get the run game going, but if Ajayi isn’t fully up to speed, it could be difficult. That being said, he did top 200 against Pitt earlier this year. I am taking the Steelers at DST because I think Moore will be forced into some back situations to due how I expect the game to play out. Finally, Tyler Lockett’s replacement in Seattle, Paul Richardson, fills out the roster.
As I’ve done all season, I’ll just touch on the players here that I didn’t talk about above. Ben, Bell, Richardson, Fiedorowicz, and Novak make appearances again here. Joining them, I’ve rostered Paul Perkins at RB. He’s taken over the #1 RB job for the Giants. While the matchup against Green Bay is tough, his price is just SO low that I’m itching to use him in tournaments. He only needs about 15 to really hit value this week. He’ll need a score, but it’s certainly possible and will provide a pivot from Miller and Ajayi, who will both be more popular plays at the RB2 spot this week. Joining Richardson at WR is his teammate Doug Baldwin and Odell Beckham. OBJ’s upside is clearly there, but I can see Green Bay doing their best to double team him this week. Plus, I don’t really trust Eli at all. Because of those reasons, I’m leaning toward using him in tournaments only. The Texans’ D that I couldn’t squeeze into the cash lineup above fills out the roster. The matchup against a 3rd string rookie QB who is starting his first game is really just too juicy. (Watch the kid throw for 300/4TDs!)
I wanted to give a little bit of a different look here, and I think that a lineup similar to this should work well for both cash games and tournaments. Russ Wilson is far from safe, but he is at home against a weakened opponent, and 15-18 really isn’t too much to ask from him. He should be looking Baldwin’s way often, even if Doug has to (likely) go up against Darius Slay. I’m finding that I’m not getting away from the Bell/Miller combo at RB. However, with so many people using them both, there will be plenty of opportunities to do a contrarian duo of something like Ajayi and Zenner. Eli Rogers has been very consistent of late for the Steelers and should be in play once again as the clear #2 WR in Pittsburgh. I expect this to be the total opposite of the first time these two teams met this season. I do not expect a close game. However, because I think Miami will be playing from behind, there is opportunity to use guys like Landry, Stills, and Parker. They are all cheap and offer great upside.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
We have a limited slate, obviously, so most of the players on these lineups you’ll see in the above FanDuel rosters. As such, I’ll just touch on the few new faces. Davante Adams makes an appearance here. While I expect Jordy to do well enough to use him in cash games, I actually like Adams’ potential for the higher upside game. Eli Rogers has been very effective of late for the Steelers. He has settled in as the clear #2 WR in the Steel City, responding with three games in a row of at least 12 FP. Over the last three weeks he has caught 15 of 17 targets and compiled at least 61 total yards. I’ll take that for $4k any day. The Seahawks DST, who were too expensive for me to fit in on FanDuel, fills out the roster with a solid matchup at home against an underwhelming Lions’ offense.
Russell Wilson should have no trouble exploiting the Lions this week. However, because his offensive line is so poor, I can only find myself using him in tournaments this week. Still, he’s finally healthy and Detroit’s passing defense is what the kids these days call “not good.” I actually could see myself stacking a few Miami WRs this week given I think they will be throwing all day long. Kenny Stills is the deep threat and finds his way into the lineup here, but I wouldn’t be beyond a triple stack of Landry, Stills, and Parker. It’s very risky, but this is a very limited slate, and you need to do things that offer differential in tournaments. That trio would do it. The other two fresh faces here are Ladarius Green, who gets an excellent matchup against the Dolphins, and Anquan Boldin, whom I think will be acting as Stafford’s crutch this week. The Lions would do well to get Zenner going and feeding the ball to Boldin and Ebron on short, no nonsense routes, if they want to stay in this game. I don’t think they will find much success trying to force the ball to Tate and Jones this week.
This is more of a GPP play with Zenner at RB and two Miami receivers (see the FanDuel update blurb above). Other than that, I wanted to do my best to again fit in Bell and Ben, who are easily my favorite stack this week, ownership be damned.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.
To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. Thanks, and have fun!!
Notes: Links are live!
NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||DK||FD||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp DK FD Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $4,000 $5,100 17 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $2,600 $4,300 22 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $2,900 $4,500 22 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $2,700 $4,500 27 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $3,400 $4,800 24 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $2,800 $4,300 26 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $3,000 $4,700 32 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $2,300 $4,200 27 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|