Week 9 DFS Value Picks November 7, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first eight weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores

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Quick Week 9 Notes

While overall this week is pretty mediocre for running backs, there is a lot of value on the table that is worth pointing out. I absolutely love Jeremy Langford this week against one of the worst fantasy defenses in the league against RBs — San Diego. Not only should he have ample room to run on Monday night, but he should also be able to take over some of the screens at which Forte excels. Langford actually spent some time playing WR and CB in college, so we’re not looking at an Alfred Morris in terms of catching ability. His price is very low across all sites and he will be in almost every single one of my lineups, regardless of potential high ownership %.

Another RB I love this week is LeGarrette Blount. This has all the right signs of a Blount type of game. Yes, Lewis is healthy and playing this week, but that should not matter. When New England gets up by three scores early — and they will — Brady will be looking to hand off to Blount repeatedly in the second half. I wouldn’t be surprised if he nears his FP output from the Jacksonville game, in which he had 3 TDs. I wouldn’t use him in cash games, but in tournaments you should look his way.

The game I’m focusing on this week for fantasy? Well, I already mentioned one of the players from it: San Diego vs Chicago. There is so much value to exploit, especially on the Chargers’ side. With Keenan Allen and Ladarius Green out, there will be ample opportunity for guys like Malcom Floyd, Stevie Johnson, and Dontrelle Inman to have solid games. Antonio Gates is also a value play on a few different sites (his price on FantasyDraft is especially inviting), which is pretty incredible. I have no problem playing multiple players from this game….I’ve made several lineups this week where more than half of the roster is filled with Bears and Chargers. It’s tough to wait until the last game to see your team accumulate points, but this is one week in which I think waiting will prove rewarding.

Tyrod Taylor is back and offers excellent upside this week for near minimum value. While this is a different Miami team than the one he faced earlier this year (in which he had a fantastic game), their defense is really not much better. Taylor’s running ability and smart decision making really solidifies his floor. While I’m hesitant to use him in cash games in his first game back from injury, I’ll probably throw him into a couple and will definitely roster him in tournaments.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 8.

 

Week 8 Recap

Sometimes things just don’t go your way. After several weeks of increasingly solid picks, everything came tumbling down last week for a number of reasons. Some of my picks from last week were wishful thinking, whilst others fared poorly due to injury or bad game scripts. So, let’s delve a little deeper into what went wrong.

The Cincy/Pitt game turned into a classic defensive struggle between the two AFC North rivals. I really, REALLY liked Andy Dalton, Marvin Jones and Eifert last week, but apparently I was one week too soon (they all had excellent games against the Browns *Sigh*). Those stacks ruined quite a few of my lineups, unfortunately. Larry Donnell was seemingly the only player in the NO/NYG game to get no fantasy production. Seriously, how did that happen? Ugh.

A lot of the other things that went wrong were due to a lot of bad luck. Take, for instance, Ladarius Green. I still liked him as a play last week, even with Gates back. Unfortunately, the injury bug hit in the first half and Green was sidelined all second half with an ankle issue, which will cause him to miss the Chicago game this week as well. The bad injury luck continued in Oakland, where Ryan Fitzpatrick played all of one series before getting injured and giving the reins to Geno Smith, who – insult to injury – was actually a viable fantasy play for the rest of the game. Sadly for my fantasy teams, points do not magically transfer over to backups (wouldn’t that be sweet).

Overall, my DraftKings picks were somehow decent overall….thanks to Ben Watson for propping up the average. The average multiples on the other sites were pretty awful last week, if I’m to be perfectly honest. DraftDay and FanDuel picks fared the worst. Here is a glimpse of a few of the best and worst picks…

Best Week 8 Picks: Ben Watson (Every site), Nate Washington (DK, FA, FD, FDR, FH), Joe Flacco (DK, FA, FDR, FH)

Worst Week 8 Picks: Marvin Jones (Every site), Ladarius Green (DK, FA, FD, FDR, FH), Larry Donnell (DD, FA, FDR, FH)

Week 8 Value

Week 8 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 9!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Jameis WinstonTBNYGQBCASH$13,00013.0%19.526.0
Jay CutlerCHISDQBGPP$13,50013.5%20.327.0
Peyton ManningDENINDQBHail Mary$10,75010.8%16.121.5
Jeremy LangfordCHISDRBCASH$7,9007.9%11.915.8
LeGarrette BlountNEWASRBHail Mary$8,8508.9%13.317.7
C.J. SpillerNOTENRBHail Mary$7,5507.6%11.315.1
Stevie JohnsonSDCHIWRGPP$7,4007.4%11.114.8
Rishard MatthewsMIABUFWRGPP$8,7008.7%13.117.4
Malcom FloydSDCHIWRHail Mary$7,4007.4%11.114.8
Ben WatsonNOTENTEGPP$9,0509.1%13.618.1
Julius ThomasJAXNYJTEGPP$6,4006.4%9.612.8
Austin Seferian-Jenkins*TBNYGTEHail Mary$8,8008.8%13.217.6

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Jameis WinstonTBNYGQBCASH$5,20010.4%15.620.8
Jay CutlerCHISDQBCASH/GPP$5,20010.4%15.620.8
Tyrod TaylorBUFMIAQBGPP$5,30010.6%15.921.2
Jeremy LangfordCHISDRBCASH/GPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
LeGarrette BlountNEWASRBCASH/GPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Antonio AndrewsTENNORBHail Mary$3,6007.2%10.814.4
Malcom FloydSDCHIWRCASH/GPP$3,9007.8%11.715.6
Stevie JohnsonSDCHIWRCASH$3,2006.4%9.612.8
Michael CrabtreeOAKPITWRGPP$4,9009.8%14.719.6
Jordan ReedWASNETECASH$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Ben WatsonNOTENTEGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Heath MillerPITOAKTEGPP$2,7005.4%8.110.8

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Jameis WinstonTBNYGQBCASH$6,70011.2%13.416.8
Kirk CousinsWASNEQBGPP$6,60011.0%13.216.5
Matt CassellDALPHIQBHail Mary$6,30010.5%12.615.8
Jeremy LangfordCHISDRBCASH$6,40010.7%12.816.0
LeGarrette BlountNEWASRBGPP$6,40010.7%12.816.0
Antonio AndrewsTENNORBHail Mary$5,7009.5%11.414.3
Malcom FloydSDCHIWRGPP$6,10010.2%12.215.3
Steve JohnsonSDCHIWRCASH$5,4009.0%10.813.5
DeSean JacksonWASNEWRHail Mary$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Antonio GatesSDCHITECASH$6,00010.0%12.015.0
Ben WatsonNOTENTEGPP$5,7009.5%11.414.3
Austin Seferian-Jenkins*TBNYGTEGPP$5,2008.7%10.413.0

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Derek CarrOAKPITQBCASH/GPP$6,40012.8%19.225.6
Tyrod TaylorBUFMIAQBGPP$5,85011.7%17.623.4
Marcus MariotaTENNOQBGPP$5,60011.2%16.822.4
Jeremy LangfordCHISDRBCASH/GPP$4,3508.7%13.117.4
LeGarrette BlountNEWASRBGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Antonio AndrewsTENNORBHail Mary$4,1508.3%12.516.6
Malcom FloydSDCHIWRGPP$4,5009.0%13.518.0
Dwayne HarrisNYGTBWRGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Dontrelle InmanSDCHIWRHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.715.6
Ben WatsonNOTENTEGPP$4,3508.7%13.117.4
Heath MillerPITOAKTEGPP$4,4008.8%13.217.6
Austin Seferian-Jenkins*TBNYGTEHail Mary$4,2008.4%12.616.8

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Jameis WinstonTBNYGQBCASH$10,20010.2%15.320.4
Jay CutlerCHISDQBCASH/GPP$10,20010.2%15.320.4
Tyrod TaylorBUFMIAQBGPP$10,40010.4%15.620.8
Jeremy LangfordCHISDRBCASH/GPP$7,6007.6%11.415.2
LeGarrette BlountNEWASRBGPP$9,3009.3%14.018.6
Antonio AndrewsTENNORBHail Mary$6,9006.9%10.413.8
Stevie JohnsonSDCHIWRCASH/GPP$6,4006.4%9.612.8
Malcom FloydSDCHIWRGPP$7,8007.8%11.715.6
Rishard MatthewsMIABUFWRHail Mary$9,0009.0%13.518.0
Antonio GatesSDCHITECASH/GPP$8,8008.8%13.217.6
Jordan ReedWASNETEGPP$8,4008.4%12.616.8
Austin Seferian-Jenkins*TBNYGTEHail Mary$5,6005.6%8.411.2

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ben RoethlisbergerPITOAKQBCASH/GPP$6,40012.8%19.222.4
Tyrod TaylorBUFMIAQBGPP$5,10010.2%15.317.9
Jay CutlerCHISDQBCASH/GPP$5,10010.2%15.317.9
Jeremy LangfordCHISDRBCASH/GPP$3,8007.6%11.413.3
Antonio AndrewsTENNORBGPP$3,5007.0%10.512.3
LeGarrette BlountNEWASRBGPP$4,7009.4%14.116.5
Stevie JohnsonSDCHIWRCASH/GPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Malcom FloydSDCHIWRCASH/GPP$3,7007.4%11.113.0
Rishard MatthewsMIABUFWRGPP$4,3008.6%12.915.1
Antonio GatesSDCHITECASH$4,5009.0%13.515.8
Jordan ReedWASNETEGPP$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Ben WatsonNOTENTEGPP$3,8007.6%11.413.3

 

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