Week 8 Target Breakdown

“Whooooaaaa we’re half way there; whooooooaaaa livin’ on a prayer.”  Hello friends and fake football fanatics.  We’ve made it to the half way mark and whether your glass half full or half empty I’ll do my best to tip things in your favor this Halloween weekend.  Shout out to Bon Jovi for the opening lyrics as we’ve got a special half-season edition of target breakdown on the way.  So whether you enjoy Bon Iver, shopping at Bon Ton, eating bon bon’s or watching Captain Ron, we’ve got what you need to succeed.  Saddle up partners as we take a look at some trends, some tricks, and of course, some treats.

Explanation of Scoring System

In addition to my comments, my enthusiasm for each player’s potential will be measured out of five tacos.  Since we live in America where more is better, the more tacos I rate a player, the more I like him.  Why tacos you ask?  Well our goal in this fake world is to fill our rosters with so many dominating players that we effortlessly pummel our hapless victims.  This pummeling inevitably manifests itself into delight equivalent to a vinegar stroke.  If you’ve ever watched The League you’ll know what vinegar strokes are and since this is a family show, I won’t go into an in-depth explanation.  You’ll also know that the term was coined by “Taco,” which provides the logic for my use of tacos as positive denotations. That and the fact that I obviously love a good taco. It makes sense in my head.

This Week’s Top Ten(ish)

Jason Witten-22

Miles Austin-16

Steve Smith-16

Brandon Marshall-14

Rob Gronkowski-13

Percy Harvin-12

Cecil Shorts-12

Dez Bryant-11

Larry Fitzgerald-11

Michael Floyd-11

Clyde Gates-11

Jeremy Kerley-11

Andre Roberts-11

Reggie Wayne-11

Mike Williams-11

Dustin Keller-11

Trends: Half-year Receiving Breakdown (all positions)

What do you take away from all this?  The target to catch ratios are particularly telling.  You’ll notice guys like Donnie Avery, who is not a horrible reach as far as flex players, but his 48% catch ratio is a big reason he’s unlikely to be much more than that.  I consider a 60% ratio to be pretty solid.  70% is great and 75% and higher is unbelievable.  Players with high catch ratios are obviously more likely to be productive, regardless of other factors such as quarterback play or competition among teammates.  Percy Harvin is a great example of this.  You just can’t keep a guy like him down.  Some of guys that are grabbing my attention include first round (former?) phenoms Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.  I actually think that people are being too harsh on these guys.  For instance, Calvin Johnson is near the top in every category but touchdowns.  His catch ratio isn’t outstanding but I still really like him as a buy low candidate.  Larry Fitzgerald is another guy who has been more productive than he’s given credit for.  Sometimes it’s easy to take guys like that from impatient owners.  Trust me, their ceilings are still sky high.  Antonio Brown is another guy who has been very solid despite a couple of down games.  The stats also show that guys like Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Desean Jackson, and Steve Smith are solid producers, yet they are undervalued in my opinion.  Just some thoughts.  Use wisely, kimosabe.

Target/Catch Ratio Notables Not Shown

Randall Cobb- Cobb is still in season and he’s growing sweet corn based on the dividends he’s provided owners so far.  His target to catch ratio is a staggering 84% (42 of 50) which suggests a very real chemistry with Aaron Rodgers and a special kind of sure-handedness that Greg Little and Stephen Hill should appreciate.  He’s really a must start in all leagues but he’s obviously a PPR monster.  The man also has 67 rushing yards, second only to Harvin’s 72.  If, and when, Greg Jennings comes back, keep playing the man.

Endorsement: 

Michael Crabtree- Like most dudes, I’ve spent a great deal of my life trying to avoid crabs, but unlike the kind you got in your college days, this one won’t bite the hand that feeds him.  In fact, Crabtree is 16^th among WRs in receptions with 39 and he’s 30^th in yards.  His downfall is that he is not much of a target in the red zone, despite the two tds he hauled in on Monday.  He holds similar value to Kendall Wright going forward and their stats are almost identical, which puts Crabtree in the WR3/4 category.  One positive for Crabtree is that he catches 71% of targets thrown his way (39 of 55). He’s solid.

Endorsement:

Heath Miller- This blue collar Mill(er) worker has been doing it the hard way, flying under fantasy radars.  Players better recognize that the Heath bar is still crunching as the 3^rd most productive TE in the game in terms of fantasy points (69.6) and FPPG (9.9).  He’s catching a sensational 73% of his targets (35 of 48) and he’s 2^nd among TEs with six touchdowns.  There’s probably no way he’s available in your league but it sure would great to have the dude on your team.  I don’t think there’s any reason to think his production will decrease significantly and despite the fact that he’s unavailable, chances are he’s owned by a guy who already has a decent TE he picked up in the draft, making him a trade-able commodity.  I don’t know about you, but it’s Miller Time, and I’m going to show up for happy hour.

Endorsement:

Tricks

Jet Receivers- It was Clyde, not Antonio, who stepped up to the fantasy plate on Sunday.  Gates tied teammates Kerley and Keller for the team lead in targets with 11, catching seven for 82 yards.  To the untrained eye, Gates looks like an up and comer, but he saw his first action since week five when he caught one pass for 27 yards and he’s still buried behind Kerley, Hill, and Schilens on the depth chart.  The Jets were behind all game and I just don’t see Gates being a remotely reliable contributor.  On the flip side, Stephen Hill will not win any awards for consistency, but his upside is much higher.  Despite catching only two passes for 29 yards on Sunday, Hill was behind the aforementioned trio in targets with seven.  He’s clearly a redzone favorite, and he could be groomed into a decent receiver come playoff time.  The question is whether or not you can wait that long for a question mark, especially given the Jets’ woes at QB.  While we’re at it, Dustin Keller came back as Sanchez’s security blanket, catching seven of his 11 targets for 67 yards.  While his per game receptions will most likely be lower on average, Keller does have some upside and a nice report with his QB.  He’s a decent bye week filler but certainly no TE1.

Endorsement:

Gates:

Hill:

long-term

Keller:

Jerome Simpson- Injuries, dropsies, inconsistent quarterback play and general not-on-the-same-pagedness has resulted in a resounding “Doh!” from Simpson owners.  While he was targeted seven times, Simp skimped on catches, hauling in only two for 37 yards.  I was a big buyer on Simpson from draft day through last weekend, but given the state of affairs in Minnesota, I don’t see Simpson as much more than a high-upside filler at this point.

Endorsement:   

Ryan Broyles- Stafford had a sensational day and the rookie slot man got a piece of the action, catching three of his seven targets for 37 yards and a touchdown.  This is the second week in a row that Broyles has scored a touchdown since being promoted due to Burleson’s injury.  In week seven, Broyles capitalized on three of his four targets, good for 51 yards.  All signs point to a potential flex starter but I’m a bit more cautious given the fact that Broyles is essentially taking the place of Titus Young in the Detroit offense, a spot that is not known for yielding consistent production.  Also, CJ has had his worst games of the year the last two weeks, which has afforded Broyles more opportunities in the passing game.  I’d count on CJ regaining his Megatron status before I’d bet on Broyles.  That being said, if you have a free spot on your roster and free agent capabilities, he’s certainly not a bad stash.

Endorsement:

Santana Moss- I’ve been bashing Moss recently over his inconsistent, boom or bust, production.  He’s long in the tooth and he simply doesn’t see a ton of snaps, let alone targets, but Sunday marked the third productive week in a row for Moss, officially turning his good play into a trend.  He stepped up in the target department as well, commanding a season high nine targets of which he caught four for 21 yards and a touchdown.  This marks the third time in as many weeks that Moss has scored a touchdown and he’s averaging 10.5 FPPG in that span, good for 20^th among WRs.  While I admit that he is certainly worth a roster spot at this point, I will once again point to his numbers, which would look puny if it weren’t for those TDs.  Moss falls out of the top 30, even entering the mid 40’s, in all other statistical categories over his “hot streak”, garnering only 17 targets, 11 catches, and 134 yards in that span.  He’s smoke and mirrors people.  Don’t drink the Kool-Aid.

Endorsement:

Treats

Denarius Moore- Dinty no Moore, this Raider has a touchdown in each of the last three games.  On a team high eight targets, Moore caught five for 96 yards and a touch on Sunday.  I wrote about him last week as a dude I like a lot so by repeating myself I’m telling you that I really like him—a lot, a lot.  He’s averaging the sixth most FPPG among WRs over the last three weeks, wedged in between a Cobb and Harvin Sandwich.  Not bad company if you ask me.  The only thing preventing a five taco festivus is the fact that he could break like fine china any second.

Endorsement:  

Mike Williams- Williams is evolving right along with the Bucs offense, putting up solid WR2 numbers over the last few weeks.  He’s 13^th among receivers in FPPG over the last three (11.2) and he’s in the upper WR2 echelon in all receiving categories in that span (25 targets, 14 catches, 217 yards, and two touchdowns).  Freeman looks to him when it matters most and he should continue to be a solid WR2/flex option going forward.

Endorsement:

Titus Young- Young has come on big over the last two games, leading the Lions in receiving in both contests.  A week removed from a solid six catch, 81 yard performance, he caught all nine of his team high nine targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns this Sunday.  He clearly seems to be embracing his new role as #2, a role vastly different that the #2 roll he held before.  Is it fair to say that his old #2 has gone down the toilet?  Like my commentary about Broyles, I think he’ll have to give some up once CJ steps up, but Young seems to be a solid WR3 at the moment.

Endorsement:

Jason Witten- It’s impossible not to mention Witten if you’re talking about targets this week.  He put up an NFL season high 22 targets against the G-men, catching a magnanimous amount of them (18) for an equally magnanimous amount of yardage (167).  Witten has pretty much been doing this (to a slightly less degree) since week three and I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be considered the TE PPR champion of the world going forward.  Over his last three games, Witten has 30 catches for 299 yards.  The only thing holding him back from Gronk-spiking Gronk, is the fact that he’s only seen the endzone once all year.  He really hasn’t been much of a redzone threat the past few seasons and unfortunately, that is also a trend that I see continuing.  Either way, I’m smitten with Witten.

Endorsement:

Cecil Shorts III- CSIII won’t be the new RGIII of the fantasy world, but he is shaping up to be a dependable safety net for those desperate for some flexual healing.  At this point I think it’s fair to say that Cecil is Gabbert’s favorite target, and while that’s a lot like having the nicest goiter in the nursing home, there is some value in that position.  Gabbert has at times shown poise and production and that included Sunday’s game against the Packers in which Gabbert looked Shorts’ way on 12 occasions.  Shorts took those targets to production town, catching eight for 116 yards.  This is actually the second time in as many weeks that Shorts has appeared in the weekly target top ten as he went four for 79 yards and a touchdown on ten targets the week before.  While this is all sunshine and roses, Shorts is catching less than 50% of his targets and he only has 20 receptions on the year.  He does, however, have 400 yards receiving and three touchdowns on the year, all of which contribute to 8.2 FPPG.  This number is good for 33^rd among WRs so in short (I’m punny) you could do worse for a flexer.

Endorsement:

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