Week 8 DFS Value Picks October 31, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

Check out our NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!

 

One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first seven weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores

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Quick Week 8 Notes

If you are playing on DraftDay, your best best for value is at the WR position. Their pricing at other positions is fairly competitive this week. FanDuel QB pricing made it difficult to find true value plays this week. You’ll have to pay up at the position. Save money at the WR position with guys like Marvin Jones and Nate Washington. On most of the other sites, the pricing is such that you’ll be able to find value across the board.

Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton are the top two options this week for value QB. Why is Dalton still priced so low? As much as I’ll love rostering him against an overmatched Pittsburgh defense, I’m shocked at the lack of love he’s getting from our pricing overlords. No matter, even if he’s 50%+ owned he’d still be worth it this week in what should be a high scoring affair against his division rival. The Steelers can actually stop the run pretty well, which means that Dalton Gang will be looking for a shootout. Look for big games from Gio Bernard and Eifert this week, especially on PPR sites. San Diego actually has a better passing D than running D, but it only shows up occasionally. Like the Cincy/Pitt game, this has all the makings of a pass-first, ask later type of game. I love a Flacco/Steve Smith duo this week in lineups.

Chris Johnson is another player that is criminally underpriced. The matchup could not line up better for him. While there are rumblings that Ellington will be getting more work, that should be more in the passing game, taking away from David Johnson’s touches. If Ellington does get some running work, it will likely be in the late second half if and when the Cardinals are up big.

Nate Washington has another great matchup this week against his former team. He was a sneaky play last week that paid off in a huge way. With Arian Foster done for the season and Cecil Shorts out this week, Washington will again be a favorite target of Hoyer’s. Don’t be afraid to plug him into your lineup.

Jonathan Stewart has a fantastic matchup at home against the Colts. The only question is, will he be able to hit paydirt? Tolbert has been his usual TD thieving self, making Stewart owners cringe whenever the Panthers get inside the 5. I think Stewart tops 100 yards this week. If he can nab a TD, he’ll be a top-5 standard play.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 7.

 

Week 7 Recap

Well, there were a few hiccups, but Week 7 was easily the best of the season. It could have been even better, too, if I hadn’t made some ill advised changes to my picks after they first came out. Let’s start with what went wrong.

The Zach Mettenberger pick was a hopeful one that just didn’t pan out in what turned out to be a defensive game. Like many others, I thought Atlanta would be able to get out to a big lead, forcing the Titans to pass often. This didn’t happen, unfortunately ruining this pick. What irks me is that I initially had Tannehill in my picks and switched over….GAH! Oh well, what can you do?

A similar think happened with my Willie Snead pick, which did not pan out. So, what irks me about this? I initially had Chris Conley in my picks and changed it because it looked like Maclin was going to play since he had passed concussion protocol. Well, the Chiefs played it safe and Conley started and went off. DOUBLE GAH!

So, what went right? DraftKings and FantasyDraft picks had their best average multiples of the year, blowing away previous weeks with multiples of 4.8 and 2.23, respectievly. My FantasyHub picks debuted very strongly as well, with a big 4.89 multiple. So, what was the cause for the big jumps in production? The results were boosted heavily with my picks of Lamar Miller and Nate Washington, who both has monster games. Throw in Todd Gurley, Doug Martin, and TEs Jordan Reed and Ladarius Green, and you have yourself a recipe for high scores. It might be tough to have a week the rest of the season that went as well as this one, but I’ll do my best to provide more cheap value picks to help your DFS rosters reach their peaks.

Best Week 7 Picks: Nate Washington, Lamar Miller, Jordan Reed, Ladarius Green, Doug Martin, Todd Gurley

Worst Week 7 Picks: Zach Mettenberger/Justin Hunter, Willie Snead, Jordan Cameron, Nick Foles (Just one site, but AWFUL!)

Week 7 Results

Week 7 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 8!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
N/AN/AN/AQBCASHN/AN/AN/AN/A
Teddy BridgewaterMINCHIQBGPP$12,50012.5%18.825.0
Peyton ManningDENGBQBHail Mary$12,60012.6%18.925.2
Jonathan StewartCARINDRBCASH$10,40010.4%15.620.8
Alfred BlueHOUTENRBHail Mary$7,9508.0%11.915.9
Orleans DarkwaNYGNORBHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Marvin JonesCINPITWRGPP$9,7509.8%14.619.5
Tyler LockettSEADALWRGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Mohamed SanuCINPITWRHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Ben WatsonNONYGTEGPP$7,9007.9%11.915.8
Larry DonnellNYGNOTEGPP$7,1507.2%10.714.3
Richard RodgersGBDENTEHail Mary$8,1008.1%12.216.2

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJOAKQBCASH$5,20010.4%15.620.8
Andy DaltonCINPITQBCASH/GPP$6,00012.0%18.024.0
Joe FlaccoBALSDQBCASH/GPP$5,50011.0%16.522.0
Chris JohnsonARICLERBCASH/GPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Jonathan StewartCARPHIRBCASH$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Darren McFaddenDALSEARBHail Mary$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Stefon DiggsMINCHIWRCASH$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Marvin JonesCINPITWRGPP$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Nate WashingtonHOUTENWRGPP$3,6007.2%10.814.4
Ladarius GreenSDBALTECASH$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Eric EbronDETKCTEGPP$3,1006.2%9.312.4
Ben WattonNONYGTEGPP$3,5007.0%10.514.0

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
N/AN/AN/AQBCASHN/AN/AN/AN/A
N/AN/AN/AQBGPPN/AN/AN/AN/A
Brian HoyerHOUTENQBHail Mary$6,90011.5%13.817.3
Danny WoodheadSDBALRBCASH$6,10010.2%12.215.3
Jonathan StewartCARINDRBCASH$6,60011.0%13.216.5
Andre EllingtonARICLERBHail Mary$5,4009.0%10.813.5
Marvin JonesCINPITWRGPP$5,4009.0%10.813.5
Nate WashingtonHOUTENWRCASH$5,4009.0%10.813.5
Stevie JohnsonSDBALWRHail Mary$5,9009.8%11.814.8
Ladarius GreenSDBALTECASH$5,3008.8%10.613.3
Jason WittenDALSEATEGPP$5,5009.2%11.013.8
Ben WatsonNONYGTEGPP$5,4009.0%10.813.5

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJOAKQBCASH$6,00012.0%18.024.0
Joe FlaccoBALSDQBGPP$6,15012.3%18.524.6
Jay CutlerCHIMINQBGPP$6,00012.0%18.024.0
Chris JohnsonARICLERBCASH$4,9509.9%14.919.8
Jonathan StewartCARINDRBGPP$4,6509.3%14.018.6
Alfred BlueHOUTENRBHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.715.6
Marvin JonesCINPITWRGPP$4,5509.1%13.718.2
Nate WashingtonHOUTENWRGPP$4,3508.7%13.117.4
Stefon DiggsMINCHIWRGPP$4,5509.1%13.718.2
Ladarius GreenSDBALTECASH$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Ben WatsonNONYGTEGPP$3,9007.8%11.715.6
Larry DonnellNYGNOTEHail Mary$3,9007.8%11.715.6

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Joe FlaccoBALSDQBCASH/GPP$10,80010.8%16.221.6
Andy DaltonCINPITQBCASH/GPP$12,20012.2%18.324.4
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJOAKQBGPP$10,50010.5%15.821.0
Chris JohnsonARICLERBCASH$8,8008.8%13.217.6
Giovani BernardCINPITRBGPP$9,2009.2%13.818.4
Jonathan StewartCARINDRBCASH/GPP$8,8008.8%13.217.6
Nate WashingtonHOUTENWRGPP$7,8007.8%11.715.6
Marvin JonesCINPITWRGPP$9,0009.0%13.518.0
Stevie JohnsonSDBALWRGPP$6,4006.4%9.612.8
Ladarius GreenSDBALTECASH$8,3008.3%12.516.6
Ben WatsonNONYGTEGPP$7,8007.8%11.715.6
Larry DonnellNYGNOTEHail Mary$7,4007.4%11.114.8

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Andy DaltonCINPITQBCASH/GPP$5,80011.6%17.420.3
Joe FlaccoBALSDQBCASH/GPP$5,30010.6%15.918.6
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJOAKQBCASH$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Chris JohnsonARICLERBCASH/GPP$4,5009.0%13.515.8
Jonathan StewartCARCARRBGPP$4,0008.0%12.014.0
Danny WoodheadSDBALRBCASH$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Nate WashingtonHOUTENWRCASH/GPP$3,5007.0%10.512.3
Marvin JonesCINPITWRGPP$4,0008.0%12.014.0
Stevie JohnsonSDBALWRGPP$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Ladarius GreenSDBALTECASH$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Ben WatsonNONYGTEGPP$3,3006.6%9.911.6
Larry DonnellNYGNOTEHail Mary$3,2006.4%9.611.2

 

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