Week 8 DFS Cheat Sheet: Updated
October 26, 2014 | Chet
Welcome to Week 8 of The Fake Football DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Guru Rich Hribar, Ian Goldsmith and myself, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, Fantasy Elite and Draftday, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those four. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
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UPDATE: Owen Daniels had a knee scope and will miss Week 8
Sample FanDuel Lineups(by Rich Hribar)
FanDuel Lineup Configuration
I’ve been burned the past two weeks by not paying up for a quarterback premium in cash games, but I trust my process enough to not fold when I hit a rough patch, so I’m going to use Palmer in my double ups this week. He has a steady floor (has finished in the top half of QB scoring every start) and has a glorious matchup at home. Sliding him in allows a true RB1 and a true WR1 in Bell and Bryant, who also have high end matchups to exploit. Cincinnati has been a sieve in terms on linebacker play so far, so Forsett should find space this week in passing game and is still severely underpriced. Watkins, Floyd, Reed and Lions defense are some of my favorite plays of the week, so fitting them all in gives me quite the warm feeling about this lineup.
Full on stack attacks on two of the highest projected scoring teams of the week. The Seattle stack allows you some leeway at the RB2 spot if you want to move around some cap space, but Tate does offer a nice play off recency bias of squishing a lot of lineups last week. Carolina has been so bad defensively this year and Seattle has such shallow ball distribution, you’re looking to capitalize on all their offensive output.
The Green Bay stack is very similar except Rodgers’ salary forces you to move after high variance running backs. If you’re going to swing big, swing big all the way by adding Kearse and Ertz. If you want to use a punt play defense (possibly the Jets) you can fit Mason Crosby in here to make a play on the majority of the Packer points.
The only players I would play this Thursday night are Peyton Manning ($10.2K), Demaryius Thomas ($9.4K) and Emmanuel Sanders ($7.8K). I would avoid all Chargers players based on the way the Denver defense is playing against the run (130 total rushing yards allowed over the past three weeks) and the way San Diego has an even keel passing game. Julius Thomas is far too expensive ($8.5K) for a guy that is seeing only six targets per game.
Sunday Early Only
The early only slate this week is one of my favorites of the season since the high octane offenses are out of play. With no Manning, Rodgers, Brees to choose from as your anchor, Russell Wilson is the next best option to pay up for in a great matchup. Wilson has been a top 10 quarterback every week except versus Dallas, so it’s hard to see Carolina slowing him down. I’m pairing him with his backfield partner, Marshawn Lynch today since he’s the best running back play for me and is due to have big game against a pushover defense. Tight end is very unattractive as a whole with this slate, as well as the top of the receiver position, so Rob Gronkowski is a great lead receiver and gives us major touchdown upside paired with Lynch. I’m going with two cost saving moves here in Jerick McKinnon and Jermaine Kearse because of what they allow you to fit in, and I’m not concerned that Kearse is more of a tourney play with his low salary and solid target volume. McKinnon doesn’t possess high end scoring upside, but the carries will be there and playing both allows me to fit another favorite of the day, Sammy Watkins, giving this team tremendous balance and upside. At the special teams spots, I’m keeping it simple and going against the Jaguars, who are surrendering a lot of points to defenses and kickers weekly.
Sample DraftDay Lineups (by Chet Gresham)
DraftDay Lineup Configurations
UPDATE: Owen Daniels had a knee scope and will miss Week 8
Thursday Cash Lineups: I love Joique Bell against the Falcons over in London. It’s a great matchup on paper and Bell has been running strong while Bush has been hampered by his ankle. I’m going to do my best to have Aaron Rodgers on all my teams and whatever Packers receivers I can fit as well. Nelson isn’t too expensive for his upside in what could be a shootout in New Orleans while Adams should see more targets than last week’s blowout. Peyton Manning is pretty good and the Chargers should make it a game, so he’ll need to throw the ball. I love Sander’s price, especially with the PPR scoring at DD. He only had 3 targets last week due to the blowout, but should see that number rise this week. Sammy Watkins helped me out last week and I don’t see Orton veering away from his this week and he’s still under 10k. He’ll be a staple. Romo is solid and pretty safe for cash games this year as the Cowboys go run first, but still have Dez Bryant on their team. Owen Daniels is safe and the Bengals have been poor against tight ends. Ertz is a little risky, but for his price I think he can hit value pretty easily against the Cardinals and his upside is higher than Daniels. The Cowboys defense has been tough this year due to their offense controlling the tempo of the game. Colt McCoy is ripe for a blowup.
Sunday Tourney: I like Orton against the Jets for his price, especially with his commitment to targeting Watkins and Romo just needs a couple bombs to Dez Bryant to make that stack worthwhile. Bradshaw won’t stop scoring and the Steelers are giving up 4.6 yards per carry and 100+ rushing yards to running backs. And even though Ben Tate let me down last week, he gets an even better matchup this week against Oakland, who are giving up 170 total yards per game to running backs and have allowed the most goal line looks to RBs this season.
I really like Joique Bell against Atlanta in the super early Sunday game, so I’m throwing together a few more Thursday lineups so I can play him. And with Pierre Thomas out I’m going to punt with Tarvaris Cadet and drop from Nelson to Sanders so I can upgrade McFadden to Lynch. I like this lineup quite a bit for 50/50s and head to head. The others are still nice for diversifying, but this is my favorite at the moment.
Sunday Update: Well, Owen Daniels being out hurts pretty bad. Kubiak said he was fine and for some reason I believed him. Hopefully Emmanuel Sanders will keep my updated Thursday night team afloat in cash games. I’m still feeling good about my first picks sans Daniels. Here’s a cash lineup I like for Sunday’s games with most of the same players.
Sample Draftkings Lineups (by Ian Goldsmith)
Draftkings Lineup Configurations
Love the Foles/Maclin pairing in tournaments this week. Arizona’s pass defense (save against the Raiders) has been very underwhelming. If Foles can complete a few more of the many targets sent JM’s way, then this could be a huge night for both. I’m also using Ertz here. He offers limited downside and should see more work without Sproles on the field. Hillman is almost a must start in cash and tournaments. Peyton’s insane skills open up room for his RBs to dance through holes. McKinnon gets a choice matchup against TB here. He has solidified his position in Minnesota and is ready to rock. Can you stray from Demaryius Thomas? Yes, but I’m not going to be the one that does. The ‘Phins are my top defensive play this week. They will do what the Browns couldn’t.
You want stability? Peyton offers it in droves. I’m pairing him and DT heavily in my 50/50s this week. Joique has a dream matchup against Atlanta in London. RBs that can catch are the Falcons’ kryptonite. Cooks has been one of Brees’ most reliable receivers. He has the same number of catches at home as he does on the road – in two fewer games. If Thomas is out, then I like Cooks even more. Olsen is perhaps the most consistent player in fantasy this year. Cam has nobody else to throw to that can catch the ball on a regular basis. He is having a career year and it will continue this week against Seattle, who have been mediocre against TEs. Jordan Matthews has caught at least 4 passes each of the past four weeks. I’ll take that type of consistency in a 1 PPR scoring system.
Yes, I’m going with the mighty Bridgewater/Wright QB/WR combo. How can you not? All joking aside, the pair offers one of the highest upsides this week against a Tamba Bay pass defense that has been shredded repeatedly. You’ve seen their upside as a duo before against Atlanta when they combined for over 50 FP. They only need 26 this week to hit value. Anything beyond that is gravy. Neither Charles nor McCoy have the best matchup here, but they have more upside than any other RB duo out there. Their prices are still deflated, which means that you can take advantage. I love the Cobb/Nelson combo here in what will be a very high scoring affair in New Orleans. That is going to be a fun game to watch, no matter your affiliation. Dwyane Allen offers upside, but also stability, scoring TDs in 5/7 games this season. Bryant has one of the best matchups of the week. Murray’s ability to bowl over everybody is opening up the field for Romo and Dez (also a great pairing this week in tourneys). He could go off again in a big way. The Jets have a great matchup against a depleted Bills team. They certainly have the talent to take advantage.
Sunday Cash Game (9:30 am est)
Sunday Cash Game:
Fantasy Elite Drafting Ranks
Will Be Up After Prices Are Posted
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
If the Matchup Machine isn’t sortable for you, here are the same stats in Excel that are sortable: Week 8 Sortable Matchup Stats
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
|DEP||Running Backs||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Att||Yds||YPC||RuTD||Rec||Target||Yds||RecTD||Tot Yds||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||PFF||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
|DEP||Tight Ends||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPt||Rec||Target||Com%||Yds||TD||RZ Tch||RZ Tar||GL||FO||FP/$DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
|Defense||Opp||DK||DD||FD||FanPts||Sack||Int||Fum Rec||Pts Allow||FP/%DK||FP/$DD||FP/$FD|
|New England Patriots||IND||$3,200||$8,650||$4,900||7||1.8||1||0.9||27.9||2.188||0.809||1.429|
|Green Bay Packers||@SEA||$2,900||$8,400||$4,700||5.3||2.6||0.4||0.4||23.8||1.828||0.631||1.128|
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.