Week 8 DFS Cheat Sheet: FanDuel and DraftKings (UPDATED)
October 29, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Welcome to Week 8 of the 2016 The Fake Football FanDuel and DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet!
With the help of our resident DFS Gurus Ian Goldsmith and Chet Gresham, we have put together a comprehensive NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with matchup stats, analysis, picks, sample lineups and lineup configuration advice. We have picks for FanDuel and Draftkings, and with their differing settings, the picks, stats and analysis will help you on even more sites than just those two. And with a week between games we will update our picks and analysis as the week progresses. You will receive your Cheat Sheet on Wednesday, in time for the Thursday night games and then we will update the sheet on Sunday Mornings to make sure you don’t miss any breaking news.
And even though we will have more info, more stats, more picks and just more everything in our NFL sheets, we will not be raising the price. Each sheet will remain $1.99 each just like our baseball and basketball sheets. And as a subscriber you will receive an email as soon as the new Cheat Sheet is posted on Wednesday of each week and then an update on Sunday mornings.
PLUS! Ian Goldsmith’s DFS Optimizer will be added to the sheets this season! It will go LIVE every Friday!
Check out our a sheet from last season to see what you get.
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Ty Montgomery won’t play according to Jay Glazer. Davante Adams and Knile Davis get a big boost. On DraftKings, switch Montgomery out for Adams.
Randall Cobb is out. Give Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams a big bump. Jordy Nelson should also see more work, but he will likely be shadowed by Desmond Trufant.
Mike Gillislee will start in place of LeSean McCoy, but Adam Schefter reports they will go with the hot hand at RB.
It appears Lamar Miller will be limited this week, but will play.
Jerick McKinnon has been ruled out for Monday night’s game against the Bears. This will give Matt Asiata the start and push him into fantasy starting lineups. The Bears defense has been decent, but still a less than good group against the run, ranking 20th in DVOA and they are allowing the eighth most goal line looks to running backs this year. He should be in your redraft lineup and is worth a DFS play.
Jamaal Charles is out, but he wouldn’t have taken much away from Spencer Ware anyway. Ware gets a great matchup with the Colts and despite his less that bell cow usage, he’s got tremendous upside in this matchup and is high on my list of DFS plays for the week.
Terrelle Pryor practiced in full on Friday and is no longer on the injury report. He should be Josh McCown’s main target in a good matchup with the Jets. I like Pryor and Gary Barnidge this week for DFS consideration with McCown back from his injury.
Doug Martin is still out and could be out a few more weeks, so Jacquizz Rodgers will get the start once again, this time against a weak Oakland run defense. Rodgers may start seeing fewer carries if they think Martin will be out much longer, but so far he’s averaged 31 touches in his first two starts and even a dip in that number makes him a top play this week.
C.J. Anderson is out for the rest of the regular season, so Devante Booker is next in line and he’s already shown how well he can play in limited work. I especially like his receiving ability and the Chargers have allowed a league high 61 receptions to running backs and they are second worst in receiving yards allowed.
Jeremy Langford is questionable, but should play Monday night in a tough matchup against the Vikings. Add in Jordan Howard and Ka’Deem Casey and you have yourself a situation to avoid like a toxic waste dump littered with zombies.
Martellus Bennett didn’t practice on Friday, but did make the trip to Buffalo. The Friday absence is considered a maintenance day for Bennett and he should play. He’s still startable in most redraft leagues, but I’d probably shy away in DFS.
Lamar Miller is questionable, but hopes to be a “full go” against the Lions. Coach O’Brien says Miller will be a game-time decision, but it does appear he will be able to go and since it is an early game, we will know before lineups lock. In redraft I’d be fine with keeping him in there, but will still be avoiding in DFS.
Donte Moncrief will return this week and he gets a good matchup for his first start back, as Kansas City has allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. This is also a decent boost for Andrew Luck, who makes for an interesting DFS play this week.
Tevin Coleman will not play this week, which will elevate Devonta Freeman into a great role in what should be a high scoring affair. The Packers have been tough on running backs, but haven’t faced too many good ones and Freeman will be heavily involved in the passing game.
Tyler Eifert should play close to a full complement of snaps according to a Bengals beat writer and Washington can be beat by tight ends. Josh Norman looks like he will play, so he could slow down A.J. Green and give Eifert even more looks. He’s risky, but his upside is getting higher.
Dez Bryant is back and will play against the Eagles on Sunday. The matchup isn’t ideal for DFS, but I’d feel fine playing him in redraft this week.
The Bills will be without Marquise Goodwin, but they haven’t added a new wide receiver to their roster, so Robert Woods should make his return to the field after missing last week. It’s not the greatest matchup, but he again will be the No. 1 receiver for the Bills.
LeSean McCoy won’t be able to go against the Patriots so Mike Gillislee will get the start for real this time. He does have some upside and as their every-down back in a run oriented team, his price on DFS sites is low enough for him to be a good cost saver. He also may be a bit contrarian, as there are plenty of good, low cost options at running back this week.
Matt Jones has been ruled out against the Bengals in London, so Rob Kelley will get the start and early down/goal line work, while Chris Thompson works in hurry up and passing downs. Both have startability, but I like Thompson’s upside in PPR leagues the most of the two.
Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin will all be able to play in Denver this week. That’s great news for the team, but this matchup is not great news for your teams. All are startable, but I won’t go near them in DFS this week.
Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett both will be able to play in New Orleans after being limited some this week. Wilson is in a prime spot to break out of his injury-induced funk, but Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin should be the main DFS plays in the receiving game.
Randall Cobb is in a prime spot to put up good numbers, but has been limited in practice all week with a hamstring injury. With Desmond Trufant on Jordy Nelson, Cobb is a good start, but I do hate dealing with hamstring issues that come up in play. I might boost Ty Montgomery and Devante Adams a bit and use Cobb more in GPPs and of course redraft.
Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick will both be able to play against Houston. I don’t love the matchup for either, but they are there for desperate redraft players. This does help Matthew Stafford enough that I could see throwing him in a GPP to see what happens, but the Texans defense is stout against the pass.
Michael Floyd will be a game-time decision, while John Brown should be able to play. In the end, this will likely help funnel a few extra targets Larry Fitzgerald’s way, which is where I’d lean my DFS hopes on in this passing attack.
Eddie Royal is doubtful against the Vikings.
Cordarrelle Patterson should be able to play and hasn’t been horrible this year.
Bilal Powell is no longer on the injury report.
Dwayne Allen remains out. Jack Doyle will start.
Sample FanDuel Lineups
I love me some Alex Smith week-in, week-out in cash lineups. It is always possible that the Chiefs’ RBs do so well that he is rendered moot (see the Oakland game), but those weeks are actually few and far between in reality. He is generally at least due for a 225-250 yard, 1-2 TD line with 20-40 rushing yards. That’s not fancy, but it’s enough for cash games, especially because he turns the ball over at such a low rate. This lineup pays up at RB for my #2 and #3 RBs for the week, Spencer Ware and Christine Michael, respectively. They have incredible matchups against bottom-dwelling defenses in the Colts and Saints. If I’m not paying up for David Johnson, the clear #1 back, then I’m trying to fit in these two guys. If you want a cheaper RB, consider Ty Montgomery who now has RB eligibility on FanDuel! At kicker and defense I always like to play it safe, so I’m slotting in the Vikings and Matt Bryant. You can also consider Vinatieri, who is on fire (so much so that he would be the #2 WR in standard leagues!), though he is costly. I love Evans and Julio this week, and John Brown should (check this!) be back and healthy as the #2 receiving option for Arizona against a now suspect Carolina defense. Fiedorowicz may seem like a strange cash play, but he’s been Houston’s most reliable receiving target and has developed a strong rapport with Osweiler.
I’m very enamored with Jameis Winston and all things Bucs this week. How can one not be? They are facing an Oakland defense that is giving up the 6th most FP to QBs, 9th most to RBs, 6th most to WRs, and 7th most to TEs (ESPN Standard scoring). Yikes. Add in the fact that this game has an over/under of 49.5 (3rd highest on the slate), and you can see why I want all the Tampa action that I can get. This starts with Winston, but also includes Mike Evans and Jacquizz Rodgers in all formats, and Russell Shepard (who?!) in GPP lineups.Shepard has really only had one week to showcase himself, but seemed to be the clear #2 WR behind Evans last week with Vincent Jackson out, even though Cecil Shorts was supposed to take that role.
Jimmy Graham should be looking to destroy his former team this week, and the Saints have nobody that can matchup with him. His upside is Gronk-esque this week, though he’s not as safe. I actually love the Seahawks as a whole this week, and in the second GPP lineup you’ll see Russell Wilson used with Michael and Doug Baldwin. The only other players not in the cash lineup I should mention are Devonta Freeman and the Dallas D. Freeman gets an OK matchup against the Packers, who I believe showed their true selves against Zeke Elliott. Their defense is not that good. If Coleman is out, then Freeman’s usage will be quite high. Dallas is rested and gets a home matchup against a rookie QB who is behind a now-weak offensive line. I’m using the Vikings 95% of the time, but Dallas is one of the few teams I’ll consider pivoting to this week.
Brock Osweiler. That sexy bitch. While, admittedly, he is terrible, he is not as terrible at home. He’s scored at least 17 FP in three out of four home games this season (Kansas City held him to 12, just under 2X value). I like that history, and I like his matchup this week against Detroit, who don’t have what I would call a competent defense. One of their only competent pieces, Darius Slay, is out this week. Good luck stopping DeAndre Hopkins, who I think has a breakout week this week. Osweiler should have no trouble hitting 15 FP, which would be more than enough to be cash value at his rock-bottom pricing. At RB, you’ll have a hard time convincing me not to roster Ware and Booker at their prices. Ware should be closer to $8K, and also gets a matchup against one of the worst RB defenses in the league. Booker is worth it on volume alone; his price is just a bonus.
Jones and Evans are my #1 and 2 WRs this week, as they should be for nearly everyone. Their matchups are incredible, and Vegas confirms this with two of the highest Over/Unders of the week at 52.5 and 49.5, respectively. Expect fireworks in those two games. Enunwa is cheap, and should be looked at regularly in what I think will be a very close, high-scoring affair against Cleveland. I actually think that Cleveland has a shot at their first win this week and that the Jets will need to be passing often. Though Marshall should get the bulk of the looks, Enunwa fits in well salary-wise.
No cash lineup would be complete without Gronk, who is far and away the best TE option of the week. If I’m not paying up for Gronk, I’ll be going cheap at the position with Fiedorowicz or Barnidge, who has grown on me during the course of the week as we’ve learned that McCown will be at the helm for Cleveland. Novak should have a ton of scoring opportunities for Houston this week, and Dallas is my favorite cheaper defense.
In the GPP lineup, I love the aforementioned McCown at his price. I’ve stacked him with Barnidge. The two of them should easily hit value and them some against a suspect Jets defense. The only other differences here in the GPP lineup are Freeman at RB and Hilton at WR. Freeman’s workload will be huge with Coleman out. Green Bay was a “stout D” against the run early on because they hadn’t faced anybody. That changed against an actual good RB in Zeke Elliott, and it will continue in a shootout this week against Freeman and the Falcons. Hilton will get matched up against Marcus Peters. Peters, for all of the amazing plays he makes, is very susceptible to the deep ball and gets beat regularly by stud WRs. He is good enough where I don’t want to use Hilton in a cash game, but will gladly pay up for him in tournaments.
Sample DraftKings Lineups
DraftKings Lineup Configurations
Well, you saw above in the FanDuel blurb how much I love Winston and the Bucs. You see that clearly here as Winston is teamed up with Evans in my favorite stack of the week. As in the FD cash lineup, I have both Spencer Ware and Christine Michael, who are locks for me. James White fills in as a 3rd RB here as I love his usage with Brady in the lineup. Even though Blount had a monster game last week, White was still able to hit 11+ FP because of his receiving ability. Ty Montgomery is basically a RB, but is still listed as WR at DK. I’ll gladly use him given the matchup and his high usage against the Falcons’ porous defense. In 7 games they have given up 58 catches to RBs…so, yeah…Use him! The only other difference from the FanDuel lineups here is Michael Thomas. The matchup is, on paper, difficult, but with Sherman likely on Cooks, Brees will find a way to feed his favorite new target. He’s been an extremely consistent fantasy play all year.
Ah yes, here we go. Jets. Lots of Jets. I’ll avoid them somewhat in cash games, but in tournaments there may be no bigger upside for a team. Brandon Marshall, Quincy Enunwa, Matt Forte, and, yes, even Ryan Fitzpatrick are in play. A note on Fitz, however…He is, for some inane reason, more expensive than Winston on DraftKings. If you are playing on Yahoo!, then consider using him, but on DraftKings I’d MUCH rather have Winston at a discount. I was able to slot in David Johnson, a near consensus #1 RB for the week. Frankly, anyone who isn’t ranking him #1 is just trying to stand out, in my opinion. He is just so much better than any back on the board, at least with Le’Veon Bell on a bye week.
In the second GPP lineup, I fit in Gronkowski, who doesn’t really need much explanation. There are a few guys that you just use if you have the leftover $$$, and he is one of them. The riskiest move is Jordy Nelson. He has been lost in all of the hubub of Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery, but can still play. He will probably get lined up against Desmond Trufant, so it’s not an easy matchup. Still, he has the skill to overcome it. That being said, I’m only using him in tournaments where I’m entering multiple lineups. He’s risky!
The biggest change in these lineups is the addition of Devontae Booker, who is now a must play in all formats. With C.J. Anderson on IR, this is Booker’s show. At only $3,700, he’s an absolute steal. Of course, everybody will want a piece of him at that price, so you’re not going to be gaining on people by using him. Given that he is very likely to hit value, however, you he’s almost a must in cash games. I’m also using him in GPPs, as his potential upside is much too great. That’s not to say you can’t find value elsewhere. If you are playing an early or Monday slate, you could consider Rob Kelley ($3,000) or Matt Asiata ($3,500), who both offer decent value as they will be starting for their respective teams this week with Matt Jones and Jerick McKinnon out.
There aren’t many differences from the earlier lineups or what I’ve detailed in FanDuel above, so I won’t rehash much here. The one player that I didn’t touch on, however, is Matt Forte. He faces the Browns who have given up a TD to opposing RBs in all but one game this week. He’s not quite safe enough to play in cash games for me, but I love his potential in tournaments this week.
Hey folks, Ian here. There are a ton of websites out there that offer their own version of DFS optimizers. Most of them are really well done. Of course, most of them cost an arm and a leg too. The thing is, for all the good an optimizer does, at the end of the day it still only gives you a starting point on which to base your lineup. You need to still come up with projections. I’m not a programmer, but I use Excel extensively in my day job as an economist. So, I thought I’d try and figure out a way to create a basic optimizer and share it with you all. It’s not fancy. This doesn’t have some kind of eye-candy GUI. However, it works. And, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.
As for projections, I’m a big believer in the wisdom of crowds. This basic optimizer uses a mixture of projections from a number of different sites. If you want to do this yourself in the future and don’t want to do any kind of tedious regression analysis, I’d recommend using the FantasyPros Consensus Projections as a starting point. After getting averages of what many different experts think will happen on Sunday, you can then make tweaks of your own. To make this, I watched a lot of Youtube videos and used much of my previous Excel knowledge, much I learned through my local library (Libraries are awesome!). That is to say, this is relatively easy to make on your own given a little patience.
To use this optimizer, you’ll need Excel 2010 or later. If you have that, then click on one of the two links below (or both!), depending on which site you are playing. There are instructions on the first sheet. If you have any questions whatsoever about how to use the optimizer, or if it’s not working for you, e-mail me at firstname.lastname@example.org. I’ll do my best to get back to you right away. If you don’t have Excel 2010 or later, then shoot me an e-mail with constraints you want, and I’ll run it for you. Also, if you have any ideas for things you’d want to see included in future iterations of this, then I’d also love to hear about them! Thanks, and have fun!!
NOTE: Remember, these lineups are just a first run through the optimizer with adjusted consensus stats from several places online. You can always remove players you don’t want to include.
If you have any questions at all, shoot me an e-mail at email@example.com. Good luck this week!
A very simple, but good start to DFS research is to look at the over/unders and odds. Obviously you want your players in games where Vegas believes the game will be high scoring and on winning teams, while your defenses should come from games they believe will be low scoring.
Sortable Matchup Machine Quarterbacks (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Quarterback for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Running Backs (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each running back for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Wide Receivers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Wide Receiver for the week.
|DEP||Wide Receivers||Tm||Opp||DK||FD||Rec/G||ReYd/G||ReYd/Tar||TD/G||T/G||Com. %||FPPG||FO|
Sortable Matchup Machine Tight Ends (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Tight End for the week.
Sortable Matchup Machine Defenses (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Defense for the week.
Defense Opp DK FD Off Points Sack Int Fum Rec DefTD RetTD FPPG
New England Patriots HOU $4,000 $5,100 17 2 1 0.5 0.1 0.1 8.4
Atlanta Falcons SEA $2,600 $4,300 22 2.6 0.8 0.4 0 0 6.2
Pittsburgh Steelers @KC $2,900 $4,500 22 2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0 4.8
Dallas Cowboys GB $2,700 $4,500 27 2.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 4.4
Kansas City Chiefs PIT $3,400 $4,800 24 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0 3.9
Green Bay Packers @DAL $2,800 $4,300 26 1.8 0.4 0.6 0 0 3.2
Seattle Seahawks @ATL $3,000 $4,700 32 2.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 2.6
Houston Texans @NE $2,300 $4,200 27 1.5 0.1 0.6 0 0 2.5
Sortable Matchup Machine Kickers (2016 Stats)
Here you will find the matchup stats for each Kicker for the week.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS WR/TE/RB MATCHUP CHART
You can find this chart HERE, but we wanted to make it sortable for you. It breaks down the rankings for defenses against WR1, WR2, “Other” WR, TE and RB against the pass.
|Rk||TM||Rk vs. #1 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. #2 WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. Other WR||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. TE||Pa/G||Yd/G||Rk vs. RB||Pa/G||Yd/G|