Week 7 Starts and Sits October 24, 2015  |  Chet


 

The Week 7 Starts and Sits feature a new-look Game Flowbotics spreadsheet.  In addition to overall offensive and defensive DVOA rankings, I’m now including data specific to match-ups between offensive and defensive lines for both rushing and passing (Adjusted Line Yards and Adjusted Sack Rate, respectively).  These stats can give us a better understanding of how a particular rushing or passing attack might work in a given match-up.  To keep things consistent, I’ve color coded the O-line and D-line metrics to correspond to overall team rushing and passing rankings in the spreadsheet.  Please sound off in the comments below if you have any questions.  Otherwise, the video is a long one this week, so let’s shake a leg and get to the Week 7 links and analysis:

2015 Game Flowbotics (Week 7)

TFF’s Week 7 Staff Rankings

Starts

QB

  • Philip Rivers vs. OAK:  I owe Phil a make-up call for the “sit” status I tabbed him with last week.
  • Blake Bortles vs. BUF:  A risky pick, for sure, but the Jags struggle to run the ball, so he’ll probably have to pass a ton, as usual.  Plus, my son’s name is also Bort.  Solidarity.
  • Brian Hoyer @ MIA:  This feels dirty, but QB is a mess this week and Miami might be due for a letdown.
  • Derek Carr @ SD:  This should be a high-scoring game and the Chargers’ defense is porous.
  • Zach Mettenberger vs. ATL:  Deep consideration only, but this is a nice match-up for fantasy purposes.

RB

  • Frank Gore vs. NO:  This game’s 52-point over-under projects a lot of offense.  The Saints defend the run poorly, but this is mostly me hoping Frank Gore can score at least once in this game.
  • LeGarrette Blount vs. NYJ:  Tough match-up, yes, but list the 24 running backs you’d start ahead of Blount this week.  I’ll wait…  Couldn’t figure it out?  Yeah, me neither.
  • Danny Woodhead vs. OAK:  The Raiders are solid against the run, so I’d much rather count on Woodhead than Melvin Gordon (and I will generally feel that way every week until Gordon proves he has a reliable and productive role).
  • Chris Johnson vs. BAL:  I don’t love this call, but CJ is the Arizona RB I’ll have ranked highest this week.  One of their backs should succeed in this contest.
  • Rashad Jennings vs. DAL:  Watch the video for full explanation, but know that I hate making this pick.
  • Duke Johnson @ STL:  Should be easier to catch passes out of the backfield than run into the stout St. Louis defensive line.  That bodes well for Duke and poorly for Isaiah Crowell.

WR

  • Donte Moncrief vs. NO:  New Orleans has the worst pass defense DVOA in the league.  I like all the Indy receivers this week (aside from Andre Johnson — see below), but I like you most of all, Moncrief.  *Closes eyes, clicks heels, waits patiently to wake from the dream of a fantasy football world without Jamaal Charles, peeks out of one eye, accepts reality, moves to Kansas and awaits death by tornado.*
  • Martavis Bryant @ KC:  We have enough evidence at this point to know Martavis is good and the Chiefs’ pass defense is bad.
  • Brandin Cooks @ IND:  Cooks has a nice skill set for this match-up.  Similar wide receivers have succeeded against the Colts.
  • Pierre Garcon vs. TB:  It’s easier to pass on the Bucs than run it, so fire up Garcon.
  • Michael Crabtree @ SD:  See Derek Carr above.
  • Robert Woods @ JAC:  The default WR1 with Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin hobbled.  Might be the second read to Charles Clay, but both should see plenty of work against a beatable Jacksonville secondary.  Their teammate Chris Hogan has deep sleeper appeal by the same logic.

TE

  • Delanie Walker vs. ATL:  Atlanta gives up the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and Tennessee should be forced to throw in this game.
  • Charles Clay @ JAC:  See Robert Woods above.
  • Eric Ebron vs. MIN:  Pending health, but the Vikes have struggled covering tight ends.
  • Coby Fleener vs. NO:  See Donte Moncrief above.

 

Sits

QB

  • Matthew Stafford vs. MIN:  Not unusable, but I don’t have Stafford pegged for a top-12 finish.
  • Sam Bradford @ CAR:  Terrible match-up for Sad Sadford.
  • Joe Flacco @ ARI:  The return of Steve Smith helps Flacco, but seek a QB with a more favorable opponent.
  • Josh McCown @ STL:  On the road against a top-10 defense that gives up the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks? That’s a McCown match-up, bro.
  • Colin Kaepernick vs. SEA:  A predictable early-week call.  I like Kaepernick’s streamability against bad defenses, but Seattle does not have a bad defense.

RB

  • Jonathan Stewart vs. PHI:  Burned me in last week’s installment, but I’m trusting the process and running J-Stew back as a “sit” in another tough match-up.
  • Christine Michael & Joseph Randle @ NYG:  Watch the video for deeper reasoning, but I worry they will eat into each other’s production and the Giants’ run defense is solid.
  • Melvin Gordon vs. OAK:  See Danny Woodhead above.
  • Joique Bell vs. MIN:  We don’t know how healthy Bell is entering this game and he’s still competing with multiple backs for touches.
  • Isaiah Crowell @ STL:  See Duke Johnson above.

WR

  • Tavon Austin vs. CLE:  Serious question:  Why run tricky plays with Tavon Austin when you can hand off to Todd Gurley for 18 yards per carry?
  • Ted Ginn Jr. vs. PHI:  Like Stafford above, Ginn is usable.  I’d prefer to have a better option, though.
  • Mike Wallace @ DET:  No super confident about this pick after some pro-Wallace action on Mike Clay’s timeline Thursday, but this is more a pick against the entire Minnesota offense than Wallace in particular.
  • Kamar Aiken @ ARI:  A difficult opponent plus the return of Steve Smith makes Aiken a very risky play.
  • Roddy White @ TEN:  Similar logic to the Tavon Austin “sit” above, the Falcons should run all over Tennessee and White is still trailing Julio Jones and Leonard Hankerson in targets.
  • Andre Johnson vs. NO:  It must be hard to play football with that fork stuck in him.

TE

  • Larry Donnell vs. DAL:  Not a terrible option, but Dallas has defended tight ends well this season.
  • Crockett Gillmore @ ARI:  Meanwhile, no one has defended tight ends from a fantasy perspective better than Arizona and Maxx Williams continues to siphon gas out of Gillmore’s tank.
  • Zach Ertz @ CAR:  Might be a bad call considering Philly’s health issues at receiver, but Ertz is inconsistent and the Panthers are a prohibitive match-up.
  • Jordan Reed & Derek Carrier vs. TB:  I’m going against the grain of my Pierre Garcon “start” call above because Tampa Bay’s defense is tough on opposing tight ends.

Thanks for reading/watching and good luck this week.

2 Responses

  1. Vk says:

    Max Williams DNP Friday, assuming he sits out do you still prefer Coby > Gilmore?

    • gregsauce says:

      @Vk: I’ll have both in the 15-20 range at TE, so flip a coin and hope for a TD. I will probably keep Fleener ranked higher based on the match-ups. Arizona has been extremely tough on tight ends.

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