Week 7 DraftKings Value Picks
October 15, 2014 | Ian Goldsmith
Check out The Fake Football Week 7 DFS Cheat Sheet!
Brian Hoyer: $5600 – Cleveland at Jacksonville
Johnny Who? Hoyer has been quietly efficient in leading the Browns to a surprising (at least to me) 3-2 record. With a 99.5 passer rating, boosted by his 7 to 1 TD to INT ratio, Hoyer has been the leader Cleveland has needed. He hasn’t been flashy, but at this price and with this matchup, he doesn’t have to be. If he can get you just 225 yards and 2 TDs, he’ll pay for his value. Jacksonville has given up over 300 yards and 2 TDs to opposing signal callers. Perhaps more importantly, QBs complete nearly 69% of passes against them. I love Hoyer in all contests this week.
Alex Smith: $6000 – Kansas City at San Diego
Coming off the bye, the level headed Smith is not going to be highly owned in contests. San Diego had been very strong against the pass until last week, when they allowed rookie Derek Carr to torch them for 282 yards and 4 TDs. San Diego will have to try and focus on the Chiefs’ RBs, as Charles and Davis can wreak havoc in an instant. Smith will have plenty of chances to throw his patented checkdowns, but I think this contest sets him up well for the play action. My bold prediction of the week: Alex Smith throws at least 3 passes of 15+ yards! Talk about insane! Tournament play.
Jamaal Charles: $6700 – Kansas City at San Diego
I rarely put elite players like Charles into this column, but look at that price! $6700?? I don’t need to write anything else to convince you to take him.
Fred Jackson: $5500 – Buffalo vs. Minnesota
I was going to put Eddie Lacy here, but the collective groans from all of you were already reverberating in my ears. Jackson, unlike Lacy, has been a model of stability. The 33 year old RB’s numbers have been boosted by the Bills’ willingness to consistently use him in the passing game; he has caught at least 4 passes in each of the last four weeks for a total of 25 receptions during that time frame. He gets to face a Vikings’ team that struggles to contain opposing RBs. He’s a high quality cash play this week.
Dwayne Bowe: $3500 – Kansas City at San Diego
Yeah, yeah….I know. Bowe? Really? Doesn’t KC rely on their strong running game and fantasy god Travis Kelce? Yes, but that is precisely why Bowe will do well this week. He is the forgotten man. While the Chargers try to contain the Chief’s running and short-passing attacks, Bowe will be able to find open space and muscle his way to a good game. The kicker? His price has dropped all the way down to $3500. 5 catches for 50 yards will be enough, but I say his numbers are a little higher with a TD. Tournament play only.
Andre Holmes: $4800 – Oakland vs. Arizona
Holmes has simply been a revelation for the Raiders since taking the starting WR job opposite James Jones in Week 4. You likely missed out on his cheapest prices of the season, but at only $4800 he’s still a fantastic value. This week he gets the Arizona Cardinals, the most generous fantasy defense to WRs. Oakland likely won’t be able to run the ball, so Derek Carr should get the green light to throw to Holmes and Jones all game long. He’s still a tournament play only as he’s only caught 9 of the 20 targets he’s received in the past two weeks.
Jordan Cameron: $4600 – Cleveland at Jacksonville
Wow. Welcome back Jordan. He only had 5 targets last week (which amazingly led the team), but caught 3 balls for 102 yards and a TD. He’ll have a great chance to repeat those numbers this week against a Jaguars team that is a sieve to opposing TEs. I will caution not to add too many Cleveland players to your team. The only truly safe play this week is Ben Tate, but Cameron, Hoyer and others have a chance to shine. Tournament play as the Browns may not need to pass often (Hoyer only threw the ball 17 times last week!).
Jared Cook: $3600 – St. Louis vs. Seattle
Seattle perplexes me this year. They are certainly capable of greatness, but are allowing teams to stay in games and – in the case of the Chargers and Cowboys – dominate them. Part of this is the fact that they are allowing opposing TE’s to have their way. Cook has been Davis’ favorite target; he has been thrown to 30 times in the past 3 games. He’ll be looked at again heavily this week. At only $3600, he has a great chance to provide fantastic value.
The Giants start a rookie RB, a rookie WR and everybody’s early season TE darling Larry Donnell has all but disappeared. Eli looked like 2013 Eli last week against the Eagles (the O-Line didn’t help, allowing 8 sacks) and comes into Dallas facing a Cowboys’ defense that is simply willing its way into the minds of opposing offenses. The game may stay close for a while, but I think Dallas pulls away and Eli will be forced into some bad throws.
Week 6 Recap
Wow…what a crazy week. I hope you took advantage of the value plays and weren’t burned by the Eli Mannings and Matt Ryans of the NFL. Cheap RBs dominated as Joique Bell and Ronnie Hillman more than returned value and opened up money for other positions. Seattle fortunately scored on a blocked punt; they were shockingly overmatched without it. Tennessee did what every other Jacksonville opponent has done this year: dominate and provide value. Here’s what last week’s picks did. Hope you had Sanu!
Ronnie Hillman: 5.87 Points Per Thousand ($DK) I was afraid of a RBBC, but RH came through.
Mohamed Sanu: 5.85 Weak 1st half, but strong 2nd and OT. 10 catches on 14 targets. Solid!
Louis Murphy, Jr.: 5.32 Murphy was the go-to Buc. Strong performance considering Evans was back.
Joique Bell: 4.78 Strong 2nd half bolstered those lucky enough to start him.
Tennessee: 4.48 Proved why you should always stream against Jacksonville.
Seattle: 3.87 Doug Baldwin, of all people, blocked a punt that lead to a TD.
Nick Foles: 2.41 Expected shootout turned into dominance by the Philly D. Again. Astounding.
Ben Roethlisberger: 1.97 Cleveland dominated from start to finish.
Luke Willson: 1.03 2nd on the team in targets, but Seattle was dominated at home by Dallas.
Larry Donnell: 0.46 – Philly’s D was dominant once again. There were no survivors.