Week 7 DFS Value Picks October 23, 2015  |  Ian Goldsmith


 

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One of the best ways to separate yourself from the crowd in DFS is to be able to find players that are priced below where they should be for their potential output. Sometimes this is easy (e.g. when a starting RB is injured after prices are released and their low-priced backup all of a sudden is in line for a lot more work), sometimes it isn’t and requires a lot more research and – as is often the case – luck. However, as they say, preparation begets luck. Below, you’ll see six tables, each covering value plays from a different daily fantasy website. Picks are provided for DraftDay, DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyAces, FantasyDraft and FantasyHub.

There are three picks for each position (QB, RB, WR, and TE). You will see one cash pick, one tournament pick, and one high risk/high reward pick that should usually only be used in GPPs with thousands of players (such as the Million Dollar contests on FD and DK). The high risk/high reward pick will be listed as Hail Mary. The prices for each pick are capped at $2,000 above the minimum value for sites with a $50,000 salary cap and $4,000 for sites with a $100,000, though there are a few exceptions if pricing really limits the number of players available.  So, for instance, you won’t see a DraftKings QB listed for more than $7,000 because the minimum price for a QB on DK is $5,000 and the salary cap is $50,000. You get the idea. You’ll also see the following columns:

Game Type: Is this a CASH (50/50, head-to-head), GPP (tournament), or Hail Mary (high risk/high reward for huge tournaments).

% of Total $: This tells you what percentage of your salary cap is being used up by using this player.

50/50 Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in 50/50 games.

GPP Pts: This tells you roughly how many points you will need from the player to cash in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs).

Note: I generally aim for more than what is needed to actually cash. For example, in 2014 you needed an average of 111.21 FP and 121.85 FP to cash in 50/50s and GPPs on FanDuel, respectively. This equates to multiples of 1.85 and 2.03, though in the tables below the numbers I have listed assume FanDuel multiples of 2 for 50/50s and 2.5 for GPPs. If you can hit the multiples below, you’ll have a better chance of actually cashing. It’s obviously not a guarantee that you’ll cash – sometimes you can win a GPP on DraftKings with 180 FP, other times it takes 303! – but on average, hitting these numbers will give you a baseline for your expectations. Remember: Always aim for more. These picks should help act as a starting point in your research for low-priced, high-upside players. Remember, these picks have been made well ahead of time. Anything can happen between now and Sunday.

Before going further, I’ve compiled a small table showing what you would have needed to cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million through the first six weeks of the season. You’ll see the average needed to win as well as the equivalent multiple.

DFS Winning Scores

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A Change In the Column

For those that have been reading this column regularly, you’ll notice a change this week. StarsDraft is now only operating in four states. If you happen to live in one of them (Kansas, Maryland, New Jersey and Massachusetts), then have fun continuing to play on the site. I personally liked the interface, but I, alas, can no longer play. C’est la vie. While other sites continue to operate as DFS gets continual negative press, StarsDraft’s parent company decided it was too risky. Why? Well, their parent company also owns PokerStars. Do you think they are going to risk that asset to protect their much smaller DFS site? No. Of course not. If and when clearer rules regarding DFS are implemented in other states, I’m sure they will begin to reintroduce their product. Until then, I have to drop them from this column. I will say this; I’ve never received a faster payout — ever. It took less than 8 hours for my withdrawal to show up in my PayPal account.

So, who will be replacing StarsDraft in this column? The new site I’ll be covering for DFS value plays is FantasyHub. Since they score differently from StarsDraft, I’ll go over the basics. The salary cap on FantasyHub is $50,000. The scoring is very similar to DraftDay; most notably, this is a full PPR site. One minor scoring difference you’ll see is that interceptions are worth -2 instead of -1 (similar to FantasyAces). This should make the Kirk Cousins and Peyton Mannings of the world less desirable (Yes, I just compared Kirk Cousins to Manning….either Kirk has attained QB God-Mode status – OR – Peyton Manning is terrible. I think you know which is the correct answer.).

I’ve only been playing on the site for a couple of weeks, so I can only give a really rough estimate on what it takes to cash in 50/50s and tournaments. I played in a $10 entry tournament last week with 248 entries; the winning score was 190.9 (~3.8 multiple) and it took 147.28 (~3 multiple) to cash. For the purposes of the tables in this column, I’m going to be on the safe side and raise that multiple of 3 to 3.5 so you can really get a sense of what you’ll need to get above the red line. I’ll set the cash game multiple at 3, even though it is likely a bit lower.

One of my favorite parts of the site is that they give a portion of each tournament to charity. When you pick your lineup, you can choose from dozens of different charities to give to (this isn’t taken away from your winnings, but you can donate extra if you want). Most tournaments are set up to donate 5% of total entry fees. , though some range up to 100%. Frankly, with all of the negative press that DFS is receiving right now, I find it refreshing to see sites like FantasyHub offer these types of incentives.

FantasyHub

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Quick Week 7 Notes

I was all set for Chris Conley to have a breakout week for the Chiefs, but it looks like Jeremy Maclin is going to be healthy enough to play. With all of the hubbub surrounding The Force Awakens this week, it was going to be the perfect time to highlight the huge Star Wars fan that Conley is. Well, until he makes it into my picks, you can enjoy his Star Wars fan film Retribution at your leisure. UPDATE: Maclin is OUT. You can fire up Conley in large tournaments today.

So, I have a few wonky-looking picks here. However, there is reason enough to back them up. Is everybody ready to climb aboard the Zach Mettenberger train??? No? Well, why not? This game sets up perfectly for him. Tennessee can’t run the ball. They’ll likely be down big, so he’ll be passing all second half. He’s minimum salary across the industry. Atlanta gives up nearly 300 passing yards per game. I especially like him on sites that give  a bonus for 300 yards passing (DraftKings/FantasyDraft). Want a deep tournament stack that 0.1% of people will own? Mettenberger/Justin Hunter. Hunter hasn’t been flashy, but he has scored 7.8 and 8.4 FP over the past two weeks, respectively. I can easily envision Mettenberger finding him for a deep score. Is it likely? Nope. Is it possible? You betcha. At minimum salary, they need a combined 24 points to hit 3X value. Very doable.

The other wonky-looking pick? Remember Matt Jones? I do. He’s been forgotten with the terrible running game of Washington; he’s also been injured. However, Chris Thompson is doubtful and it seems that Jones will be getting the work on passing downs. Lo and behold, his value has plummeted again to near minimum salary. I can easily see him getting into the end zone this week against a Tampa team giving up over 120 yards per game on the ground.

I am not very big on Christine Michael this week, but I’ve listed him in a couple of places as a deep tournament play. Who knows how Dallas will use him this week…all I know is that you should be prepared to be underwhelmed. If you want to start him, do so only in tournaments in which you have many entries. Please, don’t use him in cash games or in your redraft leagues. Just don’t do it. UPDATE: His role is still unclear 30 minutes before the first games start. I removed him from the value plays. AVOID.

With Todd Gurley sitting at $5,000 on DraftKings, be prepared for 75% ownership…..even so, it’s hard to fade him this week.

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So, let’s take a quick look at how we did in week 6.

 

Week 6 Recap

Week 6 went exceptionally well. Average multiples hit their highs for the year on 5/6 sites. DraftDay picks were the exception, where the average multiple was the 2nd highest on the season. Still, with the good there is always bad. Let’s start with what went wrong.

OK, I totally got the NYG/Philly game wrong. Waaaaay off. The Eagles dominated, despite the poor QB play of Bradford. The only Eagle I picked as value – Zach Ertz – was underwhelming with 8.3 FP on PPR sites. The other players I picked in that game — Larry Donnell and Shane Vereen — were terrible from a fantasy perspective and did little to help their teams in real life. I picked Peyton Manning on only one site (DraftDay), but that was one site too many. He looks done. As a Chiefs fan, woohoo! As a football fan, it’s tough to watch a legend’s production drop off so abruptly. Who knows, maybe the bye week will help him get things right. Hell, his defense is so good that it may not even matter.

I hope you all invested as heavily in Lamar Miller as I did. The attitude in Miami is completely different than it was under Philbin. Campbell actually allowed his running back to touch the ball. Lo and behold, Miller produced given the opportunity to do so. The other players I highlighted heavily — the San Francisco trio of Kaepernick, Boldin and Torrey Smith — all had the big games that they should have had given their opponent. The Ravens are horrific in pass coverage. It’s no wonder everyone is wanting to stack Cardinals this week. The only fear in that game is that Arizona goes up by 5 touchdowns at halftime. Still, Arians likes to continue to pour on the points even after his team takes a big lead. This is the NFL. Running up the score should be lauded, not bemoaned.

The results from last week are in the table below. As I noted above, this will be the last week for StarsDraft picks as the site is no longer relevant to 92% of states. Don’t worry, Kansas. Sam Brownback may be taking away basic services, but he won’t take away your freedom to play DFS!

Best Week 6 Picks: Lamar Miller, Matt Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Brian Hoyer, LeGarrette Blount, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith

Worst Week 6 Picks: Everyone in the NYG/Philly game (Larry Donnell, Shane Vereen, Zach Ertz)Richard Rodgers

Week 6 Value

Week 6 Results

Now that that’s all out of the way….onto the DFS value picks for Week 7!

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If you have any questions, please leave a message down below or hit me up on Twitter @ianrgold.

Note: I have asterisks next to guys with iffy injury statuses and those whose value depends on the injury status of another player. If the player ends up not playing or his value ends up diminished due to the status of another player (For example, I had Dwayne Harris listed as a play in Week 6, but his value was predicated upon Odell Beckham not playing.), I’ll either try to replace them (if time permits) or I’ll exclude them from the results.

 

DraftDay – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Zach MettenbergerTENATLQBCASH$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Nick FolesSTLCLEQBGPP$11,55011.6%17.323.1
Kirk CousinsWASTBQBHail Mary$12,55012.6%18.825.1
Jonathan StewartCARPHIRBGPP$9,9009.9%14.919.8
Matt JonesWASTBRBHail Mary$8,4008.4%12.616.8
Nate Washington*HOUMIAWRCASH$6,5506.6%9.813.1
Ted Ginn Jr.CARPHIWRGPP$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Justin HunterTENATLWRHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Jordan CameronMIAHOUTECASH$7,3507.4%11.014.7
Eric EbronDETMINTEGPP$7,8507.9%11.815.7
Ben WatsonNOINDTEHail Mary$7,7007.7%11.615.4

 

DraftKings – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNEQBCASH$5,20010.4%15.620.8
Blake BortlesJAXBUFQBGPP$5,40010.8%16.221.6
Zach MettenbergerTENATLQBHail Mary$5,00010.0%15.020.0
Todd GurleySTLCLERBCASH$5,00010.0%15.020.0
Lamar MillerMIAHOURBGPP$4,6009.2%13.818.4
Matt JonesWASTBRBHail Mary$3,2006.4%9.612.8
Rishard MatthewsMIAHOUWRCASH$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Willie SneadNOINDWRGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Nate Washington*HOUMIAWRHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.012.0
Jordan ReedWASTBTECASH$4,2008.4%12.616.8
Jordan CameronMIAHOUTEGPP$3,3006.6%9.913.2
Ladarius GreenSDOAKTEHail Mary$2,9005.8%8.711.6

 

FanDuel – $60K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNEQBCASH$7,10011.8%14.217.8
E.J. ManuelBUFJAXQBGPP$6,60011.0%13.216.5
Zach MettenbergerTENATLQBHail Mary$5,9009.8%11.814.8
Matt JonesWASTBRBHail Mary$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Donte MoncriefINDNOWRCASH$6,50010.8%13.016.3
Nate WashingtonHOUMIAWRGPP$4,9008.2%9.812.3
Justin HunterTENAtlWRHail Mary$4,8008.0%9.612.0
Julius ThomasJAXBUFTECASH$5,6009.3%11.214.0
Ladarius GreenSDOAKTEGPP$5,1008.5%10.212.8
Jordan Reed*WASTBTEGPP$5,4009.0%10.813.5

 

FantasyAces – $50K, 0.5 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNEQBCASH$5,90011.8%17.723.6
Zach MettenbergerTENATLQBGPP$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Alex SmithKCPITQBHail Mary$5,70011.4%17.122.8
Lamar MillerMIAHOURBCASH$4,8009.6%14.419.2
Matt JonesWASTBRBGPP$4,1008.2%12.316.4
Willie SneadNOINDWRGPP$4,3008.6%12.917.2
Justin HunterTENATLWRHail Mary$3,8007.6%11.415.2
Stefon DiggsMINDETWRHail Mary$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Jordan CameronMIAHOUTECASH$4,2508.5%12.817.0
Eric EbronDETMINTEGPP$4,0008.0%12.016.0
Ladarius GreenSDOAKTEHail Mary$4,2008.4%12.616.8

 

FantasyDraft – $100K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOPPPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNEQBCASH$11,40011.4%17.122.8
Alex SmithKCPITQBGPP$10,40010.4%15.620.8
Zach MettenbergerTENATLQBHail Mary$10,00010.0%15.020.0
Lamar MillerMIAHOURBCASH$9,5009.5%14.319.0
Doug MartinTBWASRBGPP$9,6009.6%14.419.2
Matt JonesWASTBRBHail Mary$6,7006.7%10.113.4
Rishard MatthewsMIAHOUWRGPP$8,0008.0%12.016.0
Willie SneadNOINDWRGPP$9,1009.1%13.718.2
Nate Washington*HOUMIAWRHail Mary$6,0006.0%9.012.0
Jordan CameronMIAHOUTECASH$7,0007.0%10.514.0
Ladarius GreenSDOAKTEGPP$6,7006.7%10.113.4
Jordan ReedWASTBTEHail Mary$9,0009.0%13.518.0

 

FantasyHub – $50K, 1 PPR

PlayerTeamOpponentPositionGame TypePrice% of Total $50/50 PtsGPP Pts
Ryan FitzpatrickNYJNEQBCASH$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Alex SmithKCPITQBGPP$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Zach MettenbergerTENATLQBHail Mary$5,00010.0%15.017.5
Lamar MillerMIAHOURBCASH/GPP$4,4008.8%13.215.4
Doug MartinTBWASRBGPP$4,7009.4%14.116.5
Todd GurleySTLCLERBCASH/GPP$4,9009.8%14.717.2
Rishard MatthewsMIAHOUWRCASH$4,1008.2%12.314.4
Willie SneadNOINDWRGPP$4,1008.2%12.314.4
Nate Washington*HOUMIAWRHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.010.5
Gary BarnidgeCLESTLTECASH$4,8009.6%14.416.8
Jordan Reed*WASTBTEGPP$4,0008.0%12.014.0
Ladarius GreenSDOAKTEHail Mary$3,0006.0%9.010.5

 

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