Week 7 DFS Value Picks
October 22, 2016 | Ian Goldsmith
Chalk Value Plays
Jacquizz Rodgers at San Francisco
After reading Doug Shain’s Hail Mary, I now know that Rodgers is much more of a chalk play than I thought he was going to be. I thought his ownership would be somewhat muted given that Doug Martin hadn’t been confirmed out early in the week, but that does not seem to be the case. The price is right, and the matchup is even better. San Francisco has given up monster games to opposing running backs in each of the past five weeks, allowing at least 100 rushing yards to a back in each of those games. The team is in shambles, and the former Beaver will be ready to tear them apart.
DraftKings – $4,300; FanDuel – $5,600; FantasyDraft – $8,500; Yahoo! – $17
Colin Kaepernick vs Tampa Bay
On the other side of the field sits (kneels?) Colin Kaepernick, who is my favorite value QB of the week. We saw last week in his first start that Kelly is more than willing to let him use his legs, as he finished with 66 yards rushing on 8 carries. That kind of running ability is invaluable when setting a floor, which makes Kaepernick worth using in both GPPs and cash games this week. In the Yahoo! Cup, I am strongly considering using Kaepernick at only $24. I advise you to consider him for your lineups as well.
DraftKings – $5,300; FanDuel – $6,500; FantasyDraft – $10,500; Yahoo! – $24
Mike Gillislee at Miami
Ugh…Will he or won’t he? McCoy’s hamstring is clearly injured, but the Bills’ coaches seem hell-bent on having him play and potentially making his injury worse. That leaves DFSers in a bit of limbo in regards to using Gillislee. If McCoy is out, the you need to plug in Mike without asking many questions. To get a starting RB for use at minimum salary is one of the sweetest occurrences in NFL DFS. It’s the kind of thing that should make you plug him in automatically, and worry about the other eight positions knowing you have a ton of salary cap with which to work. Thankfully, the game is at 10am PST, so we’ll know with plenty of time whether or not you’ll be able to use him.
DraftKings – $3,000; FanDuel – $5,300; FantasyDraft – $6,000; Yahoo! – $12
Other Value Plays
Vernon Davis at Detroit
With Jordan Reed confirmed out, it is Davis (along with Jamison Crowder and Garcon), who will benefit the most. He did well enough last week, finishing with a strong 2/50/1 line against an Eagles team that had only given up eight catches for 52 yards total to tight ends in their four previous games. This week Davis gets a much easier matchup, getting a Detroit team that has allowed 7 scored to opposing TEs, worst in the NFL. At or near minimum salary throughout the industry, you should strongly consider using the former Niner at TE.
DraftKings – $2,900; FanDuel – $4,500; FantasyDraft – $5,600; Yahoo! – $12
Mike Davis vs Tampa Bay
Man, this game is loaded in terms of value plays. While it is unfortunate that Carlos Hyde will miss this game, we can try and take advantage in the fantasy world by using his replacement, Mike Davis. I’d imagine that Kelly is going to let Kaepernick run a ton, but Davis should be the lead back with Shaun Draughn taking over the 3rd down role as he’s the better receiver. If I had to pick between Davis and Gillislee (given McCoy is out), I’d pick the latter. However, Davis is certainly worth consideration at this price.
DraftKings – $3,000; FanDuel – $4,500; FantasyDraft – $6,000; Yahoo! – $10
Torrey Smith vs Tampa Bay
Another San Francisco player? OK, I confess, I am an Oregon fan and love watching Kelly try to operate in the NFL, but I almost never like using his team as it has, frankly, been terrible (well, except for Carlos Hyde). That being said, this matchup is just setting up perfectly to find value all over the place. I am perfectly happy to roll out a Kaepernick/Smith stack this week (especially on Yahoo, where they are only $36 combined) against a Tampa team that is easily a bottom-10 team against WRs. Smith isn’t going to grab 10 receptions (I mean, he’s capable, but let’s be realistic), but he is going to offer you a fantastic deep threat to use for cheap in tournaments.
DraftKings – $3,800; FanDuel – $5,600; FantasyDraft – $7,400; Yahoo! – $12
Alex Smith at New Orleans
I recommended Smith last week. Though he played well, he couldn’t find the end zone as the KC running game took over the scoring. His high-completion 19/22 day was a fantasy dud. Oh well, back to the grindstone. He gets what is, perhaps, an even better matchup against the Saints. Of course, the Saints are also worse against the run than the Raiders are, so we might run into the same problem that he experienced last week. Still, I have to at least consider using Smith this week at his price, but will do so only in a tournament setting. He is not a value play on Yahoo!
DraftKings – $6,100; FanDuel – $7,200; FantasyDraft – $11,4000
James White at Pittsburgh
Recommended last week, White came through in a massive way with an 8 catch, 2 TD day. Surprisingly, his price didn’t rise much…like, hardly at all. He went from $15 on Yahoo a week ago to…$16. Do they know something I don’t? The pricing is strange, to say the least. The scat back for the Patriots is worth using on a weekly basis when Brady is under center, and this week is no different. He gets a Steelers team that has given up the 3rd most receptions to opposing RBs (over 6 per week), so slot him onto your cash teams and forget about it.
DraftKings – $4,600; FanDuel – $6,100; FantasyDraft – $9,100; Yahoo! – $16
Kirk Cousins at Detroit
Though not a value on Yahoo! ($34), he is quite cheap on other sites, especially on FantasyDraft where he is only 11% of salary, which is an absolute steal. The matchup rarely gets better for a QB, as Detroit has let opposing signal callers torch them repeatedly (Case Keenum a top QB? Only the Lions could make that happen.). I’m taking my chances with Cousins this week, preferably in tournaments.
DraftKings – $5,900; FanDuel – $7,300; FantasyDraft – $11,000
Pierre Garcon at Detroit
While everyone else focuses on Vernon Davis and Jamison Crowder (yes, I know that I mentioned him above as well), it seems to be Pierre Garcon who is benefiting the most with Reed’s absence. He quietly had 11 targets last week, catching 6 for 77 yards. Out of the limelight, he seems to be turning back into the guy who regularly caught 5 passes per week; he’s reached that number in four out of six games, which is very exciting to see for a player with such a cheap price. To me, Garcon reminds me a bit of Kenny Britt from last week, a guy who has been consistent on a weekly basis and is primed for a breakout performance, especially if DeSean Jackson is limited or out.
DraftKings – $3,700; FanDuel – $6,100; FantasyDraft – $7,300; Yahoo! – $18
Good luck in Week 7, everybody!!!
OK, enough jibber-jabber. Below you’ll see four tables with my picks for the week. If you have any questions at all, hit me up in the comments or, preferably, on Twitter @ianrgold. I respond more quickly there.
Value Pick Tables
Picks are provided for DraftKings, FanDuel, FantasyDraft and Yahoo!. There are two picks for each position, and one DST. Yes, I’ll even throw in kickers for FanDuel (well, ONE kicker). Why? Because I want to lose brain cells. The prices for each pick are loosely capped at 50% above the minimum value for that position. So, for instance, I’ll try to limit prices for running backs on DraftKings to $4,500. For QB’s, I’m limiting picks a bit further to 40% (if I didn’t, then this week I’d have my pick of 19 QBs!). Of course, there may be some weeks that few usable players fall under these thresholds, in which case I’ll up the limit a bit. These are arbitrary numbers of course. Everyone has their own idea of what a value pick is.
In the tables below, you’ll see a few columns. The basics are Player, Team, Opponent, Type of Game (Cash, GPP, or both), and Salary. In addition to these, you’ll see the following columns:
% of Total $: This is simply the percentage of your salary cap that a particular player takes.
Cash Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a value multiple for cash games. This varies from site to site. On DraftKings, for instance, you will generally want your team to score at lease 3 FP per $1,000 in salary (on Yahoo!, it’s FP/$1, not per $1,000). We’d call this a 3X multiple.
GPP Points: This is a loose estimate of how many points a player needs to hit a multiple in GPP games. On DraftKings, for instance, I generally aim for a multiple of 4.
Of course, it is always better to aim for more than these multiples. You don’t always need 4X value in order to cash on DraftKings, but you usually need more than that if you want to win one of the huge tournaments. Yes, there are some weeks where you can win tournaments with under 200 FP, but those weeks are few and far between. If everything goes right, players can score 300 fantasy points – a multiple of 6! So, aim for more. The economist in me always screams “more is better” (Also, doesn’t The Economist in Me sound like a terrible title for a porno? “Hey baby, want to come back to my place and see my demand curve?”). Good luck this week!!!
NOTE: This should be obvious, but only use Gillislee if McCoy is ruled out tomorrow! If McCoy plays, I’m moving that other RB value play to James White!
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
|Player||Team||OPP||Position||Type||Price||% of Total $||Cash FP||GPP FP|
|Player||Team||Opponent||Position||TYPE||Price||% of Total $||50/50 Pts||GPP Pts|
|Pay up for DST||N/A||N/A||DST||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
Week 6 Recap
Top 3 Picks of Week 6
- James White – Other than Gronk, White was Brady’s favorite offensive weapon on Sunday. Blount is no longer fantasy relevant.
- Tyrod Taylor – Let’s just say I’m thankful Ryan lets TyGod run, because it was not a great passing game. Still, I’ll take nearly 21 FP!
- Brock Osweiler – For three quarters, I was ruing this pick. He was awful; but after tossing 2 TDs in the 4th (admittedly, one was solely sue to Lamar Miller having a moment of transcendence), he was able to finish with over 17 FP, easily hitting value. Whew!
Worst 3 Picks of Week 6
- Justin Forsett – What can I say? I took a big reach in using him on FanDuel, and he was terrible. He played second fiddle to Zach Zenner, finishing with only 5 yards on 5 carries. Yuck!
- Ryan Mathews – Well, he wasn’t bad per se, but he was uninspiring. He finished with 60 yards on the ground, nothing through the air, and did not find pay dirt. Blech.
- Tavon Austin – You know, I’m a little upset that I didn’t recommend Britt in this place. I used Britt in my Yahoo Cup lineup last week and he came to life, but recommended his teammate here to no avail.
Week 6 Results
Well, three of the four sites held steady above the multiple lines I set out at the beginning of the season, but the combination of Ryan Mathews and Justin Forsett did more than enough to bring down the average of FanDuel. Alex Smith’s no TD didn’t help either, though he played well from a real world perspective.